Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles globally in the first quarter of 2026, falling short of the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 364,645-372,160. The miss extends a challenging period for the EV maker, whose stock is down over 30% year-to-date. Meanwhile, in a development that could reshape Elon Musk’s corporate empire, SpaceX has confidentially filed for an initial public offering with the SEC, with Bloomberg reporting the company is on track for a June listing.
The Tesla delivery miss comes at a difficult time. Consumer sentiment toward the brand has softened amid Musk’s polarizing political activities, and competition from Chinese EV manufacturers — particularly BYD — continues to intensify. European sales have been especially weak, with several markets showing double-digit declines.
The SpaceX IPO, however, could be transformative for Musk’s overall wealth and influence. SpaceX is reportedly valued at over $350 billion in private markets, making it one of the most valuable private companies ever to go public. The listing would give public market investors their first direct access to the Starlink satellite internet business, which is approaching profitability with over 5 million subscribers globally.
Smart Money Perspective
Among the 15 institutional investors we track in our Smart Money Tracker, Tesla remains a controversial name. No current position appears in the latest 13F filings of our tracked managers — a notable absence for what was once the most widely-held growth stock among hedge funds. The Smart Money has moved on.
The SpaceX IPO presents a different opportunity. If listed at its current private valuation, SpaceX would immediately become one of the largest stocks in the S&P 500 aerospace sector. Investors looking for Musk exposure may find SpaceX a more compelling vehicle than Tesla at current valuations.
For Tesla investors, the near-term catalysts are clear: Q1 2026 earnings (expected late April), any updates on the Robotaxi timeline, and whether the new Model Y refresh can stabilize volumes. The stock is approaching levels where value investors may begin to take interest — but the operational execution needs to improve first.