DCA Simulator — Savings Plan vs. Lump Sum
Compare live on real Yahoo Finance data whether a monthly savings plan or a one-time lump-sum investment would have performed better. Choose a stock or ETF, your savings rate and horizon — and see how often the cost-averaging effect won in the past.
Your assumptions
Your result ·
Portfolio value over time
Historical analysis — how often does DCA win?
The simulator iterated through every possible window of the chosen length in the available history. For each window, lump-sum (all upfront) was compared against DCA (evenly distributed monthly).
The cost-averaging effect — what is behind it?
The mathematical core: at a fixed euro amount per month you automatically buy more shares at low prices than at high ones. Your average portfolio price is therefore below the arithmetic mean of prices — more precisely it equals the harmonic mean. That is the pure "cost-averaging effect".
But: this effect is only a comparison against the arithmetic mean, not against "investing everything at once". Lump-sum at the start has the full amount in the market the whole time — and equity markets trend up long-term. Empirically lump-sum therefore wins in 65–70 % of cases (source: Vanguard 2012, Northwestern Mutual 2023).
The real advantage of DCA is therefore not mathematical but psychological and practical: you actually invest in the first place, instead of waiting for the "perfect entry". You spread the timing risk across many purchases. And you can save monthly out of running income without first having to accumulate a lump sum.
Related academy articles
Frequently asked questions about the DCA simulator
What is Dollar-Cost-Averaging (DCA)?
Dollar-Cost-Averaging means investing the same fixed amount monthly regardless of price. At low prices you buy more shares, at high prices fewer. Your average portfolio price ends up below the arithmetic mean.
Does DCA really beat lump-sum investing?
On average lump-sum wins in roughly 65–70 % of all rolling windows because equity markets trend up long-term. DCA wins mainly in sideways or bear markets. Try different tickers and horizons in our simulator — the win rate strongly depends on the specific market.
When does DCA still make sense?
DCA is the natural choice for anyone saving monthly from running income, anyone with timing-risk anxiety, or anyone entering a richly valued market cautiously. For most retail investors DCA is the default because there is no lump-sum alternative anyway.
What data does the simulator use?
Yahoo Finance monthly closes, dividend- and split-adjusted (total return). Top-50 tickers cached daily; others on demand for 24 h.
How is the win rate calculated?
For every possible start date in the available history, the simulator runs a full window of the chosen length: lump-sum vs. DCA. The rate is the share of windows in which DCA had the higher end value.
Does the simulator include taxes and fees?
No. Gross model calculation. In Germany 25 % capital gains + 5.5 % solidarity surcharge (26.375 % effective) apply on realization. Savings plans often have 0–1.5 % order fees. Use our tax calculator for the net view.
Which tickers are available?
50 top stocks and ETFs in the dropdown. Manually any Yahoo ticker — ASML.AS, NESN.SW, EXS1.DE, BRK-B, SPY, etc.
Are the results to be taken as investment advice?
No. Pure model based on historical data, intended only to illustrate the cost-averaging effect. Not investment advice.
Important notice
This simulator uses historical Yahoo Finance data and represents a model calculation without taxes, order fees or FX effects. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. The calculation is for illustration of the cost-averaging effect only and is not investment advice.