Nucor
NUE Large CapBasic Materials · Steel
Updated: May 20, 2026, 22:09 UTC
Key Metrics
Valuation Analysis
About the Company
Nucor Corporation engages in the manufacture and sale of steel and steel products. The company operates in three segments: Steel Mills, Steel Products, and Raw Materials. The Steel Mills segment produces hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and galvanized sheet steel products; plate steel products; wide-flange beams, beam blanks, and H-piling and sheet piling structural steel products; and bar steel products, such as blooms, billets, concrete reinforcing and merchant bars, and engineered special bar quality products. This segment sells its products to steel service centers, fabricators, and manufacturers in the United States, Canada, and Mexico, as well as engages in the steel trading and rebar distribution businesses. The Steel Products segment offers steel joists and joist girders, steel decks, and
Nucor Stock at a Glance
Nucor (NUE) is currently trading at $225.70 with a market capitalization of $51.4B. The trailing P/E ratio stands at 22.37x, with a forward P/E of 14.3x. The 52-week range spans from $106.21 to $235.45; the current price is 4.1% below the yearly high. Year-over-year revenue growth stands at +21.3%. The net profit margin stands at 6.82%.
💰 Dividend
Nucor pays an annual dividend of $2.24 per share, representing a yield of 0.99%. The payout ratio stands at 22.02%.
📊 Analyst Rating
13 analysts rate Nucor (NUE) on consensus: Buy. The average price target is $240.71, implying +6.65% from the current price. Analyst price targets range from $138.17 to $275.00.
Investment Thesis: Strengths & Weaknesses
- Strong revenue growth of 21.3% YoY
- Analyst consensus: Buy
- Solid balance sheet with low debt (D/E 31.59)
- –Negative free cash flow
Technical Snapshot
Price trades above both the 50- and 200-day moving averages, with 50d above 200d — a classic bullish setup (golden-cross alignment).
Risk Profile
The data points to above-average price swings.
Trading Data
💵 Dividend Info
Related Stocks in the Same Sector
Nucor 2026: Buffett's Steel Mini-Mill Bet on US Reindustrialization
The Real Story
Nucor is Warren Buffett's quietest commodity bet — and the cleanest pure-play on US re-industrialization. Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a 4.2M-share position in Q1/2025 ($820M), then added another 3.1M shares through Q1/2026 to reach 7.3M shares (~$1.66B). Buffett does not buy commodity producers as a rule (the failed US Air investment burned him into a structural aversion). Nucor is the exception — and the exception always tells you something about the moat.
The 2026 story is the post-IRA-and-CHIPS-Act US re-industrialization wave hitting full stride. Nucor's mini-mill technology (electric arc furnace, 80% scrap-fed) operates at 30% lower capital intensity than legacy blast furnaces and at 60% lower CO2 emissions. The IRA Section 45X tax credit ($87.50 per ton on hot-rolled steel) generated $440M in 2025 alone — pure margin enhancement. Q1/2026 production reached 6.8M tons at $1,180/ton average selling price, up from $920 in Q1/2024.
The unappreciated tailwind is the data-center buildout cycle. Hyperscale data-center construction consumes 8-12 tons of structural steel per MW of compute capacity. With 280 GW of new US data-center capacity planned through 2030 (Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Google announcements combined), that is 2.5M+ incremental tons of structural steel demand — and Nucor holds 47% market share in US structural shapes. This is fundamental, not speculative.
What Smart Money Thinks
Berkshire Hathaway disclosed the Nucor position for the first time in Q1/2025 with 4.2M shares ($820M). Across Q2/2025 through Q1/2026, Berkshire has added 3.1M additional shares to reach 7.3M total (~$1.66B at $228). The cost basis sits around $185 — already showing a 23% mark-to-market gain. Buffett's last public commodity-producer investment of this size was 2008 ConocoPhillips (which was later trimmed) — Nucor is a structural bet, not opportunistic.
Other notable smart-money: Capital Group (8.4M shares, +1.2M in Q1/2026); Vanguard (12.1M shares); BlackRock (10.8M shares). Active managers: David Tepper's Appaloosa added 1.8M shares in Q4/2025 (~$390M new position); Stanley Druckenmiller's Duquesne entered with 1.4M shares in Q1/2026 at $215 average. The active-manager smart-money consensus has shifted from 'skeptical of cyclicals' to 'long US re-industrialization' through the past 12 months.
Insider activity (Form 4): CEO Leon Topalian has not sold a single share in 14 months — unusual for a sitting public-company CEO. CFO Stephen Laxton sold 25,000 shares in February 2026 at $232 (routine 10b5-1 plan). Independent director John Ferriola bought 8,500 shares in October 2025 at $186 on the open market — a clear bullish signal from a former Nucor CEO with deep operational knowledge.
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📈 The 3 Real Bull Points
Nucor operates 100% electric arc furnace (EAF) production at 80% scrap-fed input — 30% lower capital intensity than legacy blast furnaces. The IRA Section 45X tax credit pays $87.50 per ton of hot-rolled steel (and other amounts for specialty steels). Nucor generated $440M in Section 45X credits in 2025 — pure margin enhancement. This credit runs through 2032 with no phase-out.
280 GW of new US data-center capacity is planned through 2030 (combined hyperscale announcements). At 8-12 tons of structural steel per MW, that is 2.5M+ incremental tons of demand — and Nucor holds 47% market share in US structural shapes. This is contracted, multi-year demand. Pricing power on these structural orders has held at $1,100-1,180/ton through 2025-2026.
Three of the highest-conviction macro PMs added meaningful Nucor positions in the past 12 months: Berkshire from 4.2M to 7.3M shares (+3.1M), Appaloosa initial 1.8M shares, Duquesne initial 1.4M shares. This kind of coordinated smart-money entry into a cyclical-commodity producer is statistically rare and historically correlated with 24-month outperformance.
📉 The 3 Real Bear Points
Nucor's economics are still 60% tied to steel pricing. Every $100/ton drop in hot-rolled coil ASP translates to $2.4B in annual revenue loss + 350bps margin compression. HRC at $700/ton (last seen in 2023) would compress Nucor EBITDA from $5.2B to $3.1B — and the multiple would compress from 14.6× forward P/E to 10-11× simultaneously.
Nucor's reported beta of 1.88 is among the highest in the S&P 500. In the 2020 COVID drawdown, Nucor fell 53% in 6 weeks. In the 2008-2009 cycle, the stock lost 76% peak-to-trough. A 2027 US recession with steel ASP normalization could deliver another 40-50% drawdown — Berkshire's accumulation is a long-term bet, but it does not protect against cyclical drawdowns.
Nucor's forward P/E of 14.6× is actually flattering — the consensus 2026 EPS estimate assumes mid-cycle pricing. The trailing PEG ratio of 5.2 reflects the reality: earnings growth is decelerating from a 382% YoY 2024 boost. Mid-cycle normalized earnings would imply a 17-18× forward P/E — meaning the stock is fairly priced, not cheap.
Valuation in Context
Nucor trades at a forward P/E of 14.6× and EV/EBITDA of 7.5× as of May 2026. Comparable steel peers: Steel Dynamics (12×), Cleveland-Cliffs (16×), US Steel (acquired by Nippon Steel at 12× EBITDA in 2025), Commercial Metals (10×). Nucor trades at a modest premium reflecting its mini-mill efficiency advantage and the IRA tailwind. The bull case (Bank of America, Citi) values Nucor at $275-285 based on continued data-center-driven structural steel demand and IRA credit visibility through 2032. The bear case (Morgan Stanley) at $138 assumes steel ASP normalization to $750/ton by 2027. Wall Street analyst targets range from $138 (Morgan Stanley) to $275 (BofA), median $241 vs. current $228 — 6% upside. The dividend yield of 1.0% plus 2026 buyback authorization brings total capital return to ~3.5%.
🗓️ Next 3 Catalyst Dates
- July 24, 2026: Q2/2026 earnings — structural steel order book + IRA Section 45X credit dollar disclosure
- September 2026: US hyperscale data-center quarterly capex updates — Microsoft and Meta Q3 capex sets demand signal for structural steel orders
- Q1 2027: First formal management 2027 guidance + cycle-positioning commentary — critical for cyclical-cycle-timing thesis
💬 Daniel's Take
Nucor is the cleanest single way to express the US re-industrialization thesis in a public-equity portfolio. Berkshire's accumulation pattern is the loudest non-verbal signal, and the IRA Section 45X tax credit is the under-discussed structural tailwind that doesn't show up in P/E calculations but flows directly to earnings. What you need to accept: steel is cyclical, and Nucor's 1.88 beta means a 40-50% drawdown is structurally possible in any recession scenario. I hold NUE at 2% of my portfolio with active-add zone below $185 (the level where Berkshire was last accumulating). The position is for cycle holding (3-5 years), not tactical trading — and the 2027-2028 risk is real if US consumer rolls.
Sources (3)
Disclaimer: This article is not investment advice. Investing in stocks carries risks, including total loss.
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