Alamos Gold

Gold crossed 4,000 dollars an ounce in March 2026 and never looked back. Central banks bought a record 1,180 tonnes in 2025, with PBOC, RBI and Saudi-Arabia leading the way. Yet outside a handful of mega-caps like Newmont and Barrick, mid-tier producers have lagged badly — Alamos Gold trades at 40 dollars, up 68% in twelve months but still 27% below the median analyst target of 60.50 dollars. The disconnect is the opportunity.

Alamos is the rare gold miner that earns its way without bet-the-company growth projects. Three core assets: Young-Davidson and Island Gold in Ontario, Mulatos in Sonora Mexico. All-in sustaining cost (AISC) in Q1/2026 was 1,287 dollars per ounce — versus a 4,050 dollar gold price, that is a 2,760 dollar margin per ounce. The company guides 600,000 ounces in 2026, growing to 900,000 by 2028 from the Phase 3 expansion at Island Gold and the new Lynn Lake mine in Manitoba.

Stan Druckenmiller disclosed a new gold-mining basket in Q4/2025 — Newmont, Barrick and Alamos. Total exposure roughly 4% of his Duquesne Family Office portfolio. John Paulson remains long the entire mid-tier gold complex, with Alamos a top-five position. Bridgewater Associates increased gold-equity exposure broadly through Q1/2026 13F filings, with explicit mention of Alamos in their March 2026 client letter. The 2026 institutional pattern is a flight to mid-cap miners that produce in safe jurisdictions — Alamos qualifies on both counts.

At 40 dollars Alamos trades on 9.1x 2026 EV/EBITDA and 12.1x forward earnings. Both metrics are 15–20% below mid-tier gold-producer peers like Agnico Eagle (11.0x EV/EBITDA) and Endeavour Mining (10.5x). Free-cash-flow yield is 5.8%, dividend yield 0.3% but with policy to escalate as Phase 3 ramps. NAV per share at 4,000 dollar gold is 56 dollars — the stock trades at a 29% NAV discount, versus the 5-year average of an 8% premium.

The 50.4% median target upside to 60.50 dollars reflects an EV/EBITDA re-rate to 11x — sensible if Phase 3 delivers on time. Bear case: 26 dollars (gold at 3,200, P3 delayed). Bull case: 85 dollars (gold at 4,500 and full P3 production by 2027). Asymmetric, with gold price as the swing factor.

1. July 24, 2026: Q2/2026 production update and dividend declaration — markets watching for second 2026 dividend hike
2. Late 2026: Island Gold Phase 3 ramp-up milestones — first ore tonnage from new mine fleet
3. 2027: Lynn Lake first gold pour — adds 165,000 ounces per year at 940 dollar AISC

Alamos is the most boring way I know to play 4,000 dollar gold. Three mines in safe jurisdictions, a balance sheet with net cash, an organic growth pipeline that does not require speculative geology and a management team that has never diluted shareholders. The risk is gold itself — but if you believe the central-bank gold bid is structural (and the buying data says it is), you do not need heroic assumptions to make this work. I would pair Alamos with Newmont as the two-stock gold position, with Alamos as the growth leg. Total return of 15–20% per year at flat gold is realistic; at higher gold prices the math gets silly fast.