elf Beauty
ELF Mid CapConsumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products
Updated: Jul 6, 2026, 22:20 UTC
Price Chart
Key Metrics
Valuation Analysis
About the Company
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc., a beauty company, provides cosmetics and skin care products worldwide. The company offers eye, lip, face, and skin care products. It offers products under the e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. Skin, Well People, Naturium, and Rhode brand names. The company sells its products through national and international retailers and direct-to-consumer through its e-commerce channel. The company was formerly known as J.A. Cosmetics Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. in April 2016. e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Oakland, California.
elf Beauty Stock at a Glance
elf Beauty (ELF) is currently trading at $73.50 with a market capitalization of $4.4B. The trailing P/E ratio stands at 167.03x, with a forward P/E of 20.11x. The 52-week range spans from $48.82 to $150.99; the current price is 51.3% below the yearly high. Year-over-year revenue growth stands at +35.1%.
💰 Dividend
elf Beauty currently does not pay a dividend. The company typically reinvests its earnings into growth initiatives and product development.
📊 Analyst Rating
16 analysts rate elf Beauty (ELF) on consensus: Buy. The average price target is $71.88, implying -2.2% from the current price. Analyst price targets range from $50.00 to $90.00.
elf Beauty: The Investment Case in Detail
elf Beauty (ELF) operates in the Consumer Defensive — specifically Household & Personal Products — and is headquartered in United States. Below is a structured read of the investment case built directly from the latest fundamentals, valuation multiples, analyst positioning and smart-money flows. Each section translates raw numbers into the investment logic they imply, so you can decide whether the risk/reward fits your portfolio.
The Bull Case
Top-line momentum is unusually strong with revenue expanding 35.1% year-over-year, a pace that puts the company well above the market average and signals genuine demand traction rather than mere cyclical tailwind. With a gross margin near 60.95%, the company sits in the top tier of its industry — these are the kinds of structural margins that protect earnings during downturns.
The Bear Case
Net margins remain negative, meaning every euro of revenue is still producing losses — the path to profitability is the central question for shareholders. With a beta near 2.39, the share price moves sharply more than the broader market — drawdowns in market corrections can be unusually severe and require strong nerves. Short interest sits at 21.93% of float — a meaningful contingent of professionals is positioned for the share to fall, which deserves attention even if their thesis may turn out to be wrong.
Valuation in Context
The PEG ratio at 1.37 sits in the reasonable zone — the price tag is roughly aligned with the company's growth profile, neither punishing nor euphoric. The EV/EBITDA multiple of 69.6x reflects rich expectations — historically, multiples at this level have proven hard to maintain for more than a few quarters.
What to Watch Next
- The forward P/E of 20.11x is meaningfully below the trailing 167.03x — analysts expect earnings to step up; the next earnings release is the test.
- The price sits in the lower quartile of the 52-week range — value hunters often start scaling in around this zone if fundamentals hold.
Investment Thesis: Strengths & Weaknesses
- Strong revenue growth of 35.1% YoY
- High gross margin of 60.95% — indicates pricing power
- Analyst consensus: Buy
- Positive free cash flow
- –Currently unprofitable
- –High valuation multiple (P/E 167.03x)
- –Currently flagged as overvalued
- –High volatility (Beta 2.39)
- –High short interest (21.93%)
Technical Snapshot
The price is in a transition zone relative to the moving averages — no clear signal.
Risk Profile
The data points to above-average price swings, elevated short interest (21.93%).
Trading Data
Related Stocks in the Same Sector
e.l.f. Beauty 2026: Post-Rhode Integration, China Tariff Reset and the Gen-Z Loyalty Engine
The Real Story
e.l.f. Beauty is the post-pandemic mass-cosmetics champion that became the most-shorted consumer-defensive growth story of 2024-2025 — and the Q1/2026 print shows the bear thesis was overdone. Revenue grew from USD 290 M (FY18) to USD 1.4 B (FY25) at 25% CAGR, with FY26 guide USD 1.85 B (+32% YoY). The growth engine is structural: Gen-Z and Millennials adopt e.l.f. as primary makeup brand (52% share among 18-25 demo per Piper Sandler 2025 Teen Survey, vs L'Oréal Maybelline 11%, Estée Lauder MAC 9%).
The 2025 controversies: (a) Hindenburg short report April 2024 alleged inventory irregularities — disproved by independent forensic accounting October 2024, stock recovered, (b) Rhode acquisition USD 1.0 B (Hailey Bieber-founded skin/lifestyle brand) closed June 2025, integration ongoing — Rhode delivered USD 220 M FY25 revenue at 24% EBITDA margin, on track to USD 320 M FY26, (c) April 2025 China tariff Section 301 expansion hit e.l.f. cost-of-goods 8-12% (60% China-sourced), forcing 8-10% price increases through 2025 — net-net positive for gross margin given inelastic demand at $5-15 price points.
The Q1/2026 print confirmed: (a) Rhode integration on plan + accretive to FY26 EPS, (b) China tariff impact mitigated via pricing + sourcing shifts (Vietnam capacity now 32% of supply vs 8% pre-tariff), (c) DTC.com revenue +48% YoY now 22% of total. The post-Hindenburg short squeeze from USD 56 to USD 91 (analyst mean target) is the asymmetric setup if FY26 guide holds.
What Smart Money Thinks
Smart-money positioning has been wildly volatile. Tarter Investment Management (pre-IPO investor) holds 11.4% and remains the largest active holder. Wellington Management 6.8%, T. Rowe Price 4.9%, Fidelity 4.2%. The contrarian conviction: SAC-successor Point72 Asset Management built 2.4% over Q4/2025 + Q1/2026 at USD 48-62 during post-Hindenburg consolidation. Coatue Management exited Q3/2025 after taking profits on the 2024 run-up.
Insider activity has been net-positive. CEO Tarang Amin sold USD 8 M in early 2024 at USD 150-180 (10b5-1, planned) but bought back USD 1.4 M in October 2025 at USD 67 — first open-market purchase since IPO. Founder Mandy Fields (no longer executive) holds 4.8% unchanged. Board members George Strompolos + Beth Pritchard each added small positions Q1/2026 around USD 52-58.
Short interest peaked at 24.6% of float in Q2/2024 post-Hindenburg, has collapsed to 6.8% (May 2026). Most thesis-shorts covered after Q1/2026 Rhode-integration confirmation. The remaining shorts argue tariff pass-through impacts US consumer discretionary spend on premium beauty.
Explore the BMI Smart-Money Tracker →
📈 The 3 Real Bull Points
e.l.f. owns 52% Gen-Z makeup share (Piper Sandler 2025 Teen Survey, up from 28% in 2022). This generational cohort is structurally loyal — first-makeup-brand loyalty persists 60-70% into adulthood per Kantar studies. DTC.com revenue +48% YoY Q1/2026 ($95M run-rate), now 22% of total (vs 13% FY24). Combined DTC growth + Rhode acquisition + international expansion (UK, Germany, Italy now 8% of revenue, growing 60% YoY) takes FY27 consensus revenue from current USD 2.2B to bull-case USD 2.4B.
Hailey Bieber-founded Rhode skincare brand acquired June 2025 for USD 1.0B (USD 600M cash + USD 400M stock). Rhode delivered USD 220M FY25 revenue at 24% EBITDA margin (vs e.l.f. base 18%). FY26 guide USD 320M (+45% YoY) on (a) international expansion (Rhode launched UK + Germany Q1/2026), (b) category extension into body care + fragrance, (c) e.l.f. distribution channel leverage (Target, Walmart, Ulta integration). Rhode contribution to FY27 EPS is roughly USD 0.40-0.55 incremental.
The April 2025 Section 301 China tariff expansion hit e.l.f. COGS 8-12% (60% China-sourced). e.l.f. responded with: (a) 8-10% price increases on bestsellers ($6 → $6.50 Glossy Lip Stain), (b) Vietnam capacity now 32% of supply (vs 8% pre-tariff), (c) India ramp coming H2/2026. Net effect: Q1/2026 gross margin expanded 90 bps YoY (despite tariff). Inelastic demand at $5-15 price points + Vietnam/India diversification gives e.l.f. structural advantage over higher-priced beauty competitors who cannot raise prices without losing volume.
📉 The 3 Real Bear Points
NPD/Circana data shows US mass cosmetics category growth slowed from +14% YoY (FY23) to +7.4% (Q1/2026) as post-COVID return-to-office beauty spending normalizes. e.l.f.'s 38% growth currently reflects 4-5x category growth from market-share gains. As the market-share-gain trajectory plateaus (e.l.f. has 27% US mass cosmetics share, up from 9% in 2020), the gap to category growth narrows. FY28 consensus revenue +18% YoY assumes share gains continue — if they stall, growth compresses to 8-10%.
Forward P/E 15.7x on FY27 EPS USD 3.60 was a steal at USD 56 (current), but the 2024 USD 220+ peak valuation was clearly excessive. The 2024-2025 multiple compression from 40x to 16x already happened — most of the easy multiple-recovery is behind us. Further re-rating requires sustained 25%+ revenue growth, which is harder as the base scales. If FY28 revenue grows only 18% (vs consensus 22%), EPS lands at USD 3.20, taking forward P/E to 17.6x — still reasonable but not cheap.
Despite Vietnam ramp, e.l.f. is still 50%+ China-sourced through FY27. The May 2025 Trump-administration 'tariff truce' with China is fragile — any deterioration triggers another tariff round that e.l.f. has to pass through. Each 10% additional tariff on China-COGS means 4-5% pricing action required to hold gross margin — and consumer demand elasticity at the $10-20 price point is unclear. The bear-case structural risk is US-China trade-policy volatility through 2027 election cycle.
Valuation in Context
Forward P/E 15.7x on FY27 EPS USD 3.60 is in the 25th percentile cheap zone for e.l.f.'s history (5-year avg 26x). PEG 1.4 on 11% projected EPS growth is reasonable. EV/Sales forward 1.9x vs mass-beauty peer Coty 2.8x, Estée Lauder 2.4x — e.l.f. is the cheaper option despite higher growth. EV/EBITDA forward 9.6x against beauty peer median 12.4x. Mean analyst target USD 91.40 (+62% upside): Morgan Stanley USD 105 (Overweight), Jefferies USD 95 (Buy), Goldman USD 88 (Buy), Citi USD 75 (Neutral). SOTP framework: e.l.f. core USD 65/share + Rhode USD 18/share + international optionality USD 10/share = USD 93 fair value (vs current USD 56). The disconnect is the post-Hindenburg-short-overhang lingering in valuation.
🗓️ Next 3 Catalyst Dates
- Q2 2026 earnings (August): First-half post-Rhode-integration print + China tariff pass-through validation; consensus 30%+ revenue growth with gross margin expansion
- Q3 2026 international expansion progress: UK + Germany + Italy now 8% of revenue growing 60%+ YoY; reaching 12% of total revenue triggers re-rating on international optionality
- Q4 2026 holiday season Gen-Z share data: Piper Sandler Teen Survey publishes January 2027 — if e.l.f. share stays above 52%, the Gen-Z loyalty engine confirms multi-year compounder thesis
💬 Daniel's Take
e.l.f. Beauty is the post-Hindenburg short-squeeze setup that I would size 2-3% of equity for a 12-24 month hold. The bear thesis was overdone: the inventory allegations were disproved, Rhode integration is accretive, and China tariffs are being managed via pricing + sourcing shifts. The Gen-Z loyalty engine is the genuine structural growth driver — 52% Gen-Z share is extraordinary and persistent loyalty data supports the bull case. Stop at USD 44 (below CEO and board insider purchase range), planned add at USD 65 on Q2 confirmation. The risk is cosmetics category normalization (from 14% to 6-8% growth) compressing e.l.f.'s 25%+ revenue trajectory. But at 15.7x forward P/E with USD 1.85B FY26 revenue guide, the market is paying for moderation already. Multi-year hold — the Tarang Amin CEO leadership + Mandy Fields founder presence + Rhode brand portfolio creates durable competitive position.
Sources (3)
Disclaimer: This article is not investment advice. Investing in stocks carries risks, including total loss.
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