Volkswagen

Volkswagen is the hardest investment case among German automakers in 2026. CEO Oliver Blume — simultaneously CEO of Porsche AG — manoeuvred himself into a critical dual role that shareholder advisors are openly criticizing. Q1/2026: group revenue €78.5B (-2.1% YoY), adjusted operating margin 4.2% (vs. 5.9% in Q1/2024), the VW brand itself stuck at 1.8%. For comparison: BMW 8.1%, Mercedes 6.3%.

The 2026 structural story is dominated by three problems: (1) the China share collapse — the VW group (incl. Audi, Skoda, Porsche, Cupra) lost 14% volume in China in 2025 and now sits at 14.1% market share (vs. 19.1% in 2022). (2) Platform complexity — VW is developing PPE (Porsche), SSP (2028+), MEB EV platform, and CMP (China) in parallel. R&D costs triple without clear synergy. (3) the VW brand turnaround plan — Blume launched a €5B cost program at the core VW brand in 2024 that is only partially landing due to IG Metall negotiations and the plant-closure taboo.

The dividend story is the biggest risk in 2026: VW cut the FY2025 dividend to €6.00 (from €9.00 in 2024) — the sharpest DAX cut of the year. At the current share price that still yields 6.9%, but German retail-investor trust is broken.

The shareholder register is concentrated and problematic at the same time: Porsche Automobil Holding SE (Porsche/Piëch families) holds 31.9% of the ordinaries plus 53.3% of voting rights. The State of Lower Saxony holds 11.8% ordinary plus 20% voting. Qatar 14.6% ordinary. Together those three blocks own 58.3% of ordinaries and 87.6% of votes — the free float is marginal.

Notably, the preferred share (which is what VOW3.DE trades) is attracting meaningful activist attention for the first time. Cevian Capital publicly demanded in February 2026 that VW (a) move toward a Porsche holding break-up to reduce the conglomerate discount, and (b) end Blume's Porsche/VW dual role. Blume has not engaged directly.

VW trades at 4.1× 2026 P/E and 1.8× EV/EBITDA — the lowest valuation in the DAX. Market cap is around €45B; with a Porsche stake worth €38B, the rest of VW is implicitly valued at just €7B — absurd against €80B+ of group revenue. SOTP analysts value Rest-VW at €25–35B — producing a theoretical fair value of €130–150 per share (vs. current ~€85). The 40%+ holding discount is historically extreme but reflects real governance and operating problems.

1. July 2026: Q2/2026 earnings with an update on the VW-brand turnaround plan. The market expects first evidence of margin improvement.
2. October 2026: Possible Cevian Capital escalation. An official letter to the supervisory board presidium could trigger a Porsche break-up debate.
3. April 2027: AGM with the dividend vote. Market expectation: €6.00 (flat); any cut would be devastating.

Volkswagen in 2026 is a classic ‘value trap or re-rating trigger’ trade. The valuation is absurd, but the operational issues are real. I currently run 1% portfolio weight as a deep-value call-option position — and would only add after concrete progress on a Porsche break-up. If you simply want European auto beta, BMW is the better answer. If you want to play the Cevian activist setup, VW can be a 3–5% position — with a clear stop-loss discipline.