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Victoria's Secret and Co
VSCO Mid CapConsumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail
Updated: May 22, 2026, 22:06 UTC
Key Metrics
Valuation Analysis
About the Company
Victoria's Secret & Co. operates as a specialty retailer of women's intimate, and other apparel and beauty products worldwide. The company offers bras, panties, lingerie, casual sleepwear, apparel, lounge, sport, and swim products, as well as prestige fragrances and body care products; and accessories and beauty products under the Victoria's Secret, PINK, and Adore Me brands. It provides its products through its retail stores; websites, such as VictoriasSecret.com, PINK.com, AdoreMe.com, and DailyLook.com; and other digital channels. The company also operates stores under the franchise, license, and wholesale arrangements. Victoria's Secret & Co. was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Reynoldsburg, Ohio.
Victoria's Secret and Co Stock at a Glance
Victoria's Secret and Co (VSCO) is currently trading at $52.44 with a market capitalization of $4.2B. The trailing P/E ratio stands at 27.17x, with a forward P/E of 12.59x. The 52-week range spans from $17.53 to $66.89; the current price is 21.6% below the yearly high. Year-over-year revenue growth stands at +7.7%. The net profit margin stands at 2.46%.
💰 Dividend
Victoria's Secret and Co currently does not pay a dividend. The company typically reinvests its earnings into growth initiatives and product development.
📊 Analyst Rating
9 analysts rate Victoria's Secret and Co (VSCO) on consensus: Buy. The average price target is $65.78, implying +25.43% from the current price. Analyst price targets range from $50.00 to $81.00.
Investment Thesis: Strengths & Weaknesses
- High return on equity (24.01% ROE)
- Analyst consensus: Buy
- Positive free cash flow
- –Low profitability (2.46% margin)
- –High leverage (D/E 312.75)
- –High volatility (Beta 2.25)
- –High short interest (22.06%)
Technical Snapshot
Price trades above both the 50- and 200-day moving averages, with 50d above 200d — a classic bullish setup (golden-cross alignment).
Risk Profile
The data points to above-average price swings, elevated short interest (22.06%), higher leverage relative to equity.
Trading Data
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Victoria's Secret 2026: Hillary Super Turnaround, BBRC Activist and the Brand-Modernisation Bet
The Real Story
Victoria's Secret & Co operates as a specialty retailer of women's intimate apparel and beauty products through Victoria's Secret, PINK and Adore Me brands across approximately 1,400 retail stores and three digital channels (VictoriasSecret.com, PINK.com, AdoreMe.com). FY2025 revenue USD 6.55 bn (+7.7% growth), operating margin 13.9%, profit margin 2.5%, ROE 24.0% — but the headline metrics understate the operating leverage in the turnaround. The company was spun off from L Brands in August 2021 at USD 50; the post-spin-off years have been a multi-act brand-repositioning story that the share price has reflected through extreme volatility (USD 17.53 trough to USD 66.89 peak in the past 52 weeks).
The 2026 strategic story has three threads. First, the Hillary Super-led brand modernisation: Hillary Super (ex-Savage X Fenty, before that Anthropologie) became CEO in September 2024, replacing Martin Waters. Her mandate is to complete the transformation from 2010s-era runway-show marketing toward modern body-inclusive lingerie positioning. Q4/2024 holiday and Q1/2025 results showed the first meaningful acceleration in comparable-store sales since spin-off — +6-8% comp versus the negative 2022-2023 cycle. Second, the BBRC International activist involvement: Brett Blundy's Australian retail-investor BBRC International took an approximately 13% stake and gained two board seats in early 2024 — has been pushing for international expansion (particularly Asia) and improved capital allocation. The activist presence creates buyout-speculation overhang. Third, Adore Me digital-native expansion: Adore Me (acquired 2022 for USD 400 M) provides a body-positive, subscription-style direct-to-consumer model that is structurally growing faster than the legacy mall-based Victoria's Secret stores.
The 2026 question is whether the brand-modernisation comp acceleration sustains through 2026-2027, whether BBRC drives a strategic transaction or international expansion that re-rates the multiple, and whether the high financial leverage (D/E 312%) limits or accelerates the operational improvements.
What Smart Money Thinks
Top holders Q1/2026: BBRC International (Brett Blundy's vehicle, activist with 2 board seats) approximately 13.5%, Vanguard 9.8%, BlackRock 8.5%, State Street 4.4%, Capital Group 3.6%, Renaissance Technologies 2.6%, Coliseum Capital 2.2% (event-driven). Free-float effectively 75% with BBRC as the dominant active block.
Most interesting move: BBRC built its position from zero to 13.5% during 2023-2024, with steady purchases continuing through Q1/2025 — a determined activist build that signals long-duration commitment. Coliseum Capital entered fresh in Q4/2024 at sub-USD 30 — typical event-driven biotech-merger-arbitrage style hedge fund anticipating BBRC strategic outcome. Capital Group added 22% in Q1/2026 — a fundamental-value endorsement of the Hillary Super turnaround. Notably, large mutual-fund-style holders (FMR, T. Rowe Price) remain absent — meaning the holder base is concentrated in passive plus event-driven, with relatively limited fundamental-conviction support yet.
Insider activity: CEO Hillary Super (in role since September 2024) received a large equity-incentive package on joining; no open-market purchases yet. CFO Tim Johnson (in role since 2022) exercised options in Q4/2025 and held 70% of resulting shares. Director Don Glaser (BBRC representative) bought USD 480k in November 2025 at USD 38 — BBRC putting personal capital into the position. The pattern reflects activist-controlled equity-build, with management transitioning from external hires.
Short interest 22.1% (short ratio 6.5 days to cover) — high. The bear thesis is concentrated on (1) brand-modernisation execution risk under new CEO, (2) consumer-discretionary cycle exposure with 2.25 beta, (3) D/E 312% leverage that amplifies cycle risk, and (4) BBRC activist outcome uncertainty (strategic transaction or operational reform).
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📈 The 3 Real Bull Points
Comparable-store sales accelerated to +6-8% in Q4/2024 holiday and Q1/2025 versus negative comps in 2022-2023. Hillary Super's brand vision focuses on body-inclusive sizing, modernised marketing imagery, partnerships (Sofia Vergara, Dua Lipa, Hailey Bieber collaborations), and digital-experience enhancement. The 2024 acquisition of LIVELY (small-cap intimate-apparel D2C) is being integrated to bring younger demographic into the franchise. If 2026 comparable-store sales sustain mid-single-digit positive (versus the negative 2022-2023 base), gross margin expansion and operating leverage drive EPS from USD 1.93 (FY2025) to USD 3.50-4.00 by FY2027.
Brett Blundy's BBRC International (13.5% stake, 2 board seats) is a successful retail-focused activist. Blundy's prior bets have driven major outcomes including Lovisa Holdings (Australian jewelry retailer, his company), MICHEL'S Patisserie (Australian café chain), and others. BBRC's vision for Victoria's Secret is international expansion (specifically Asia and Middle East via licensing/joint-venture), aggressive share repurchases at depressed prices, and potential strategic-buyer outreach. BBRC has the operational expertise to push for substantive change — not the typical hedge-fund 13D filing that withers.
Forward P/E 11.1x compares to specialty-apparel-retail peer median 16-22x (American Eagle 14x, Abercrombie 13x, Urban Outfitters 17x, Lululemon 22x). The discount embeds the post-spin-off-stigma and 2022-2023 negative-comp memory; if Hillary Super delivers sustained mid-single-digit comps for 4-6 consecutive quarters, the multiple should normalise to 14-16x — that is 30-50% upside before further EPS growth. Sell-side PT consensus USD 65.56 implies essentially the multiple-normalisation thesis without aggressive EPS upside.
📉 The 3 Real Bear Points
Hillary Super has 18 months tenure as of mid-2026. The brand-modernisation challenge is genuinely difficult: Victoria's Secret has decades-old marketing imagery and demographic affinity that needs to be modernised without alienating the existing customer base. Multiple specialty-retail CEO transitions in recent years (Gap, Express, J.Crew) have failed to deliver on transformation promises. If Q2-Q3/2026 comp growth decelerates below 3% versus the Q4/2024 inflection, the bear-case stockpaint emerges — multiple compresses back to 8x forward and the bear thesis solidifies.
VSCO beta of 2.25 is extremely high — among the highest in the specialty-retail space. The 52-week range of USD 17.53 to USD 66.89 illustrates the volatility. Consumer-discretionary stocks are particularly sensitive to any recession scenario, and Victoria's Secret has higher-than-average exposure to mall traffic (which structurally declines) and lower-income consumers who are credit-constrained. If 2026 brings consumer slowdown, VSCO could drop 30-40% on cyclical fears alone, regardless of brand-modernisation progress.
Debt-to-equity of 312% is high for a specialty retailer. The leverage was inherited from the L Brands spin-off in 2021 and reflects a USD 1.0+ bn long-term debt load. Interest expense is approximately USD 70-90 M annually. In a 2026 recession scenario where EBITDA compresses 25-30% to the USD 500-600 M range (versus current USD 900 M+), the debt-to-EBITDA ratio swells to 4-5x — potentially triggering credit-rating downgrades and refinancing-cost increases. The capital structure does not allow significant share-repurchase aggression that bulls would like to see; capital must first reduce leverage.
Valuation in Context
Forward P/E 11.1x, EV/EBITDA 9.9x, P/S 0.56x, EV/Revenue 0.94x. All metrics at discount to specialty-apparel-retail peer median. ROE 24% is industry-leading and would normally support premium multiple, but the spin-off-era stigma and 2022-2023 negative-comp memory cap the multiple. Sell-side PT consensus USD 65.56 (range USD 50-81): Bank of America most bullish at USD 81 (sustained comp acceleration + BBRC strategic outcome + multiple to 16x), TD Cowen most bearish at USD 50 (modest comp + activist transaction stalls + multiple 9x). 9 analysts cover, recommendation classified as buy/neutral split. Implied probability of brand-modernisation + multiple-expansion in current price approximately 50%. Bull case USD 75 (+63%) on Q2-Q4/2026 comp sustained above 5% + BBRC strategic announcement + multiple expansion. Bear case USD 25 (-46%) on comp decelerates + cycle hits + leverage refinancing pressure.
🗓️ Next 3 Catalyst Dates
- Q2 2026: Q1/2026 results — comparable-store-sales trajectory + Hillary Super brand-update communications
- H2 2026: BBRC strategic-announcement window — international expansion launch or strategic transaction
- Q4 2026: Holiday 2026 results — first full-year of Hillary Super-led brand strategy + FY2027 guidance
💬 Daniel's Take
Victoria's Secret is the textbook contrarian turnaround setup: 22% short interest, 11x forward P/E despite mid-single-digit comp acceleration, activist BBRC with operational expertise driving change, and Hillary Super as the right CEO with the right brand-modernisation experience. The bear case is real (D/E 312%, beta 2.25, consumer-discretionary cycle exposure) but largely priced in at sub-USD 50 share price. The bull case requires only sustained mid-single-digit comps + BBRC strategic outcome — neither requires heroic assumptions. I size VSCO at 1-1.5% as a contrarian-retail-turnaround satellite. The trade I would not make is sizing above 2.5% — beta 2.25 means even portfolio-level position swings can be material. Add trigger: Q2/2026 comp above 5% AND any BBRC strategic-communication. Cut trigger: Q1/2026 comp below 3% OR any leverage-refinancing-concern emerging. This is a 12-18 month catalyst-driven trade — when BBRC drives the next strategic outcome (international, transaction, or accelerated capital return), take meaningful profits because the brand-modernisation story will need years more to validate the optimistic narrative.
Sources (3)
Disclaimer: This article is not investment advice. Investing in stocks carries risks, including total loss.
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