VeriSign

VeriSign is the textbook regulated-monopoly stock and one of Warren Buffett's purest 'forever' positions. Berkshire Hathaway holds 12.95M shares ($3.7B at $288) — built over 2012-2013 at an average ~$45, never trimmed. The position has generated a 6.4× return plus dividends across 13 years. Buffett's love affair with VeriSign is structural: VRSN holds the sole-source ICANN contract to operate .com and .net domain registries through 2030 — a regulatory franchise that no competitor can replicate.

The 2026 story is the post-2024 ICANN renewal pricing trajectory. ICANN approved VeriSign's .com price increases (7% per year for 4 of every 6 years through 2030) — meaning .com wholesale price rose from $9.59 in 2024 to $10.26 in 2026 and is set for $10.98 in 2027. The pricing increases roll through to ~$1.5B in incremental annual revenue at 88% gross margins by 2030 with zero capex. This is the cleanest monopoly-pricing-power thesis in the S&P 500.

The unappreciated leg is the AI-domain-demand inflection. AI startups need branded .com domains at a level not seen since the dot-com era. Q1/2026 new .com registrations grew +14% YoY for the first time in 5 years, driven directly by AI-startup formation. VeriSign expects new .com registrations to grow 10-12% annually through 2028 — a major reversal of the 2019-2023 secular decline.

Berkshire Hathaway built the VeriSign position 2012-2013 at an average cost basis of ~$45. Berkshire holds 12.95M shares ($3.7B at $288) — has NOT trimmed once across 13 years. This is the Buffett 'forever holding' pattern at its purest: a regulated-monopoly business with 88%+ gross margin and zero capex requirement. VeriSign return for Berkshire: 6.4× plus dividends.

Other notable smart-money: Akre Capital (Chuck Akre's fund) holds 1.1M shares since 2010 — 16-year unbroken hold; Capital Group (12M shares); Vanguard (13M shares); BlackRock (10M shares). Active manager activity: Fundsmith (Terry Smith) added 800K shares in Q4/2025 — first VRSN position for Fundsmith. Pat Dorsey's Dorsey Asset Management entered with 300K shares Q1/2026.

Insider activity (Form 4): CEO Jim Bidzos sold 95,000 shares in February 2026 at $295 (routine 10b5-1 plan, his standard quarterly disposition since 2018). Bidzos (founder + CEO since 1995) personally holds 1.8M shares — 30-year aligned-ownership pattern. No insider buying signals; this is the established baseline for the most boring monopoly business in the S&P 500.

VeriSign trades at a forward P/E of 27× and EV/EBITDA of 21× as of May 2026. Comparable software-infrastructure peers: ICANN-monopoly comparable (none direct), CME Group (exchange monopoly, 25× P/E), MSCI (38× P/E), S&P Global (21× P/E), Moody's (24× P/E). VeriSign's valuation sits in the middle of the regulated-monopoly cohort. The bull case (Wells Fargo, JP Morgan) values VRSN at $345-355 based on AI-driven new-registration growth + sustained price escalator + 2030 renewal favorable. The bear case (BMO Capital) at $265 assumes ICANN 2030 renewal forces a price concession. Wall Street analyst targets range from $265 (BMO) to $355 (Wells Fargo), median $305 vs. current $288 — 6% upside before the 1.1% dividend. The buyback authorization brings total capital return to ~3%.

1. July 25, 2026: Q2/2026 earnings — new .com registrations growth sustainability is the critical KPI; <8% growth weakens the bull thesis
2. Q3 2026: ICANN initial 2030-renewal-process meetings — first public signal on pricing-power continuity
3. October 2026: Q3/2026 earnings + full-year 2026 guidance — first formal management framework on AI-startup demand impact

VeriSign is the cleanest 'regulated-monopoly compounder' in the S&P 500 — and Buffett's 13-year zero-trim hold is the strongest possible non-verbal endorsement. 88% gross margin, 68% operating margin, contractual price escalator through 2030, plus the AI-startup-driven new-registration tailwind that everyone discounts because of 2019-2023 history. What I struggle with at $288 is the multiple — 27× forward is fully priced for the bull thesis. I hold VRSN at 2.5% of my portfolio with active-add zone below $245 (the level where Berkshire was last accumulating). The 2030 renewal risk is real and unhedgeable — position-sizing here is critical.