UCB

UCB is one of the most interesting European pharma mid-caps in 2026. The Belgian specialist in neurology and immunology delivered Q1/2026 revenue of €1.82B (+11.8% YoY), core EBITDA €580M (+18% YoY), adjusted pre-tax profit €320M. The 2026 structural story is driven primarily by one asset: Bimzelx (bimekizumab) — the dual IL-17A/F inhibitor — is 18 months into its ramp with Q1/2026 sales of €410M (+62% YoY) and consensus 2026 sales of €1.8B.

The 2026 story has three legs: (1) Bimzelx label expansion: beyond the initial plaque psoriasis approval, 2025 added psoriatic arthritis, axial spondyloarthritis and hidradenitis suppurativa. 2026/27 brings Phase 3 readouts in ankylosing spondylitis and Crohn's disease. Peak-sales estimate 2030: €5–7B. (2) Cimzia patent protection through 2029 still delivers €1.3B of annual revenue at 75%+ gross margin. (3) Pipeline optionality: zilucoplan (myasthenia gravis), rozanolixizumab, and two new Phase 3 epilepsy candidates.

The dividend story is classically European-conservative: UCB plans €1.55 per share for FY2025 (from €1.40 in 2024) — an 11% raise. At the current share price the yield is only 1.2%, but UCB has raised the dividend in 14 of the last 15 years. In parallel, a €600M buyback program runs in 2026.

The shareholder register is unusually concentrated in 2026: the Janssen family (via Tubize, a Belgian holding) holds 35.6% — a long-duration anchor investor. BlackRock at 4.2%, Vanguard 2.9%, Norges Bank 1.1%. Free float is roughly 56%.

Notable mover: Wellington Management built a first 2.3% UCB position in Q1/2026 — the largest single US institutional move in 18 months. Their rationale: ‘Bimzelx is the least-followed blockbuster story in European pharma’. Sell-side: Berenberg and Citi both raised UCB to European Top Pick in pharma in Q1/2026.

UCB trades at 21× 2026 P/E and 18× EV/EBITDA — premium to European pharma median (Sanofi 12×, Roche 14×) but cheaper than US pure-plays (AbbVie 22×, Lilly 30×). A DCF using 8% WACC and €6B Bimzelx peak sales produces a €175–210 fair-value range. The current price (~€185) sits fairly in range. Dividend yield 1.2% on a 14-year growth ladder.

1. September 2026: ACR (American College of Rheumatology) congress with potential new Bimzelx label data. Consensus expects positive Phase 3 data in ankylosing spondylitis.
2. Q4 2026: Possible FDA approval for zilucoplan in pediatric myasthenia gravis. Would establish a €150–200M peak-sales asset.
3. February 2027: FY2026 earnings with the Bimzelx full-year update. Consensus expects €1.8B revenue; upside risk to €2.1B.

UCB is my preferred European mid-cap pharma pick in 2026. The asymmetry is favorable: the Bimzelx ramp is demonstrably real (Q1 +62% YoY), the Janssen family anchor reduces shareholder pressure, and the Cimzia patent shield covers the ramp phase. I hold 2.5% portfolio weight via monthly DCA. If you want pure US pharma beta, Lilly or Novo are better — but if you want Bimzelx optionality at cheaper multiples than US peers, UCB is the right wrapper.