Uber

Uber in 2026 is a different company than it was three years ago. CEO Dara Khosrowshahi has converted the eternal growth-stage cash burner into a classic platform-economy compounder. 2024 was the first GAAP-profitable full year, 2025 saw the S&P 500 inclusion, $6.5B free cash flow on $53.7B revenue — that is a 12% FCF margin from a marketplace model that was burning billions just five years ago.

But the stock is down 27% from its 52-week high (from $102 to $74). The reason has a name: robotaxi. Waymo is scaling in Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin and Atlanta. Tesla launched the Cybercab service in Austin in June 2025. The bear thesis: if autonomous driving works, Uber's driver margin disappears — and with it the entire margin model.

The reality is more nuanced. Uber has signed 14 robotaxi partnerships in 2024-2025 (Waymo, Wayve, May Mobility, Volkswagen, Avride, Pony.ai, WeRide, Nuro and more). Khosrowshahi's bet: Uber becomes the demand-aggregation layer for AV fleets, similar to how Booking.com does not operate hotels but controls 40% of bookings. If this works, Uber 2030 is structurally a higher-margin business. If not, the bear scenarios kick in.

Almost unnoticed alongside this: Uber Advertising crossed the $1B run rate in 2025 — at ~90% gross margin. That is the lever that could lift the group EBIT margin from 14.6% to 18-20% over the next few years, entirely independent of the AV outcome.

Uber was one of the most-bought smart-money tech plays in 2024. Bill Ackman's Pershing Square built a $2.3B position in Q1 2024 (~10M shares) — Ackman himself called Uber „one of the best managed and highest quality businesses in the world“ at the Sohn Conference. Coatue and Altimeter hold significant positions, as do D1 Capital and Soroban.

Institutional ownership is around 84% — Vanguard (10.2%), BlackRock (7.8%), Morgan Stanley IM (4.1%), T. Rowe Price (3.7%) as the top four. Insider activity 2025: Khosrowshahi sold moderately (stock-compensation vesting), CFO Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah likewise — no panic selling, but also no insider buying on the lows (that would be the strongest signal).

13F trend Q4 2025: slight reductions at several tech funds due to robotaxi worries, but Ackman kept his position unchanged. Buffett's Berkshire has no UBER position — Buffett explicitly bet against Uber in 2017 (sold the early stake), which makes the stock less visible to classic value trackers.

Uber trades at a TTM P/E of 18.5 — distorted downward by the equity investment effect described above. Forward P/E 17.2 is the clean number. EV/EBITDA 22.7 (group) or 13.1 cash-adjusted, P/S 2.83 — all three at the lower end of the 3-year range.

Three models: (1) DCF with 12% revenue CAGR through 2030, terminal margin 18% (vs. today's 14.6%), WACC 9.5% → fair value $87-95. (2) Sum of the parts: Mobility (EV/Sales 3.0x = $90B) + Delivery (2.5x = $40B) + Freight (0.8x = $4B) + Ads (15x = $30B) - net debt $2B = ~$162B = $77/share. (3) Peer multiple: Lyft trades at P/S 0.7 (discount), DoorDash at P/S 4.9 (premium); Uber sits between DoorDash and MercadoLibre → fair P/S 4.5 = ~$120/share.

Average of models: ~$95-100. Current price $74.70. Upside to the fair-value range: +27% to +35%. Main model risk: the AV disruption discount is hard to quantify — the bear-case DCF with margin compression yields $50.

1. August 5, 2026: Q2 2026 earnings — Uber Ads Q2 run rate (market consensus $1.4B annualized), first Waymo-Atlanta volume disclosures expected
2. Q3 2026: Wayve London launch via Uber app (exclusive) — first European AV city for Uber, sentiment lever
3. February 2027: FY 2026 capital-return update — possibly first dividend announcement; Pershing Square's Q4 letter from Ackman could act as a pre-announcement signal

Uber was one of my conviction positions in 2024, it isn't in 2026 — but purely for tactical reasons, not because the thesis is broken. The setup is interesting: stock -27% from the high, forward P/E 17, FCF yield 4.3%, smart-money anchor Ackman long since 2024, buyback program in motion.

What keeps me from a full position: the robotaxi question for 2026-2028 is binary. If Tesla fails to scale the Cybercab network (my base case at ~60% probability), Uber is the structural winner and I see $120+. If Tesla succeeds (~25% probability), Uber becomes a mid-cap platform with compressed margins and a $50 price.

My 2026 setup: build position below $72, full exposure at $65 (52-week low + 10% buffer). Add on clearly positive Atlanta/Austin volume disclosures in Q2 2026. This is not investment advice — you have to weigh the robotaxi probabilities yourself.