Trigano

Trigano is the largest European leisure-vehicle manufacturer with approximately 30% market share in the European motorhome and caravan segment. The portfolio spans 18+ brands (Adria, Auto-Trail, Auto-Sleepers, Bénimar, CAB Camp, Caravanas, Roller Team, Eura Mobil, Karmann Mobil, Pilote, Notin, McLouis among others) selling motorhomes, caravans, mobile homes, trailers, tents, and accessories across France, Germany, UK, Benelux, Italy, Spain, Northern Europe and internationally. Founded 1935 and Paris-based, controlled by the Feuillet family with approximately 50% ownership. FY2025 revenue EUR 3.76 bn (+5.0% growth), gross margin 32.7%, operating margin 8.9%, profit margin 6.8%, ROE 12.3%, free cash flow EUR 484 M — high-quality manufacturer profile with conservative balance sheet (D/E only 9%).

The 2026 strategic story has three threads. First, the post-COVID normalisation completion: 2020-2021 saw an unprecedented motorhome and caravan demand spike as European consumers prioritised domestic travel during lockdowns and post-pandemic. 2022-2024 saw inventory destocking and order normalisation. 2025 marks the first year of stable order intake (+5-7% volume growth) with operating margin recovery from 2023 trough toward historical 9-10% level. Second, the European RV-market structural growth: European motorhome park (registered vehicles) has been growing 3-4% per year through 2025-2027, supported by ageing demographics, remote-work flexibility, and electric-vehicle (e-motorhome) format introduction. Third, the Feuillet family control + capital allocation: the family-controlled 50% stake provides multi-decade ownership stability. Capital allocation has been disciplined: 28% dividend payout, modest debt usage, and selective bolt-on acquisitions (Bénimar Spanish caravan brand 2018, more recent smaller deals).

The 2026 question is whether the European RV-cycle continues to recover toward 10% operating margins, whether the e-motorhome format gains traction in 2026-2027 to support next-cycle volume growth, and whether the family-controlled structure permits any strategic transaction (Feuillet family monetisation or larger acquisition) that could re-rate the discounted multiple.

Top holders Q1/2026: Feuillet family entities (founder François Feuillet died 2023, family continues control) approximately 50.0%, BlackRock 4.4%, Norges Bank 3.0%, Amundi (French asset manager) 2.6%, Pictet Asset Management 2.2%, Sycomore Asset Management 1.6%. Free-float effectively 45% with Feuillet family as dominant block.

Most interesting move: Pictet Asset Management opened a fresh 2.2% position in Q4/2025 — first major Swiss-private-bank-house accumulation since 2021. Amundi added 16% to its position in Q1/2026 — French-domestic-fund accumulation supporting cycle-recovery thesis. Sycomore (European value house) has held position since 2022 trough. Notably, the Feuillet family has not reduced its approximately 50% stake since the family transition in 2023 (post-founder death) — disciplined ownership continuity that supports the long-term-stability thesis.

Insider activity: CEO Stéphane Gigou (in role since 2018) made no open-market purchases in 2024-2025 — standard restraint. CFO Marie Polenacek exercised options in Q4/2025 and held 100% of resulting shares. Vice Chairman (Feuillet family representative) Stéphane Feuillet has not transacted directly since 2023. The family ownership block plus disciplined insider behaviour signals long-duration stewardship.

Short interest reported at 0% and short ratio 0 — extremely low, consistent with French mid-cap with concentrated family ownership. The 9-analyst sell-side coverage is moderate for a French mid-cap, but the strong-buy recommendation and target_upside +23.4% reflects analyst confidence in the cycle-recovery thesis.

Forward P/E 9.58x, EV/EBITDA 7.08x, P/B 1.47x, P/S 0.81x. All metrics at discount to European-consumer-cyclical peer median and at the cheap end of Trigano's own historical range (2018-2025 forward P/E 7-15x). The right valuation framework is post-cycle-normalisation earnings: assuming 9-10% operating margin recovery + 5-7% revenue growth, 2026-2027 EPS could reach EUR 14-16. At 12x forward (peer-median), fair value is EUR 170-190. At 14x forward (consumer-cyclical-premium for quality + family-stability), EUR 195-225. Sell-side PT consensus EUR 195.33 (range EUR 180-210): Oddo BHF most bullish at EUR 210 (cycle full recovery + e-motorhome positive + M&A), Berenberg most bearish at EUR 180 (cycle recovery moderate + competitive pressure). 9 analysts cover, recommendation strong-buy. Implied probability of cycle-recovery in current price approximately 70%. Bull case EUR 210 (+33%) on margin to 10% + multiple to 13x + bolt-on M&A. Bear case EUR 110 (-30%) on European recession + RV unit volumes -20% + margin to 5%.

1. Q3 2026: FY2026 (year ending August 2026) results — full-year cycle-recovery confirmation + e-motorhome development update
2. H1 2027: European RV registration trends + Trigano market-share update
3. FY2027: First e-motorhome production volume — defines next-cycle volume growth profile

Trigano is the cleanest European RV-cycle pure-play with a high-quality balance sheet, Feuillet family stewardship since 1935, and a 9.58x forward P/E that prices in modest expectations. The post-COVID normalisation cycle is now complete, with 2026-2027 operating margin recovery toward 10% the next earnings driver. The clean balance sheet (D/E 9%) provides resilience through any 2026 recession scenario. I size TRI.PA at 1-2% as a European-consumer-cyclical quality satellite. The trade I would not make is sizing above 2.5% — RV-cycle-discretionary exposure is real and a 2026 European recession could compress earnings 30-40% before recovery. Add trigger: any quarter with operating margin above 10% AND European RV market data showing +5%+ volume growth. Cut trigger: operating margin below 7% or any e-motorhome capex announcement that exceeds EUR 200 M without phased rollout. This is a 2-3 year quality-compounder hold with cycle-recovery driver — patience through the cycle is rewarded by the clean balance sheet + dividend support + multiple-expansion optionality.