Tomra Systems
TOM.OL Large CapIndustrials · Waste Management
Updated: Jul 6, 2026, 22:20 UTC
Price Chart
Key Metrics
Valuation Analysis
About the Company
Tomra Systems ASA provides sensor-based solutions for optimal resource productivity worldwide. It operates through four segments: TOMRA Collection, TOMRA Recycling, TOMRA Food, and TOMRA Horizon. The company provides reverse vending machines and related data management systems; and provides pick-up, transportation, and processing services of empty beverage containers on behalf of beverage producers/fillers. It also develops, produces, sale, and service sorting and processing technology for waste management companies or plant builders; and provides sorting systems for waste and metal material streams, as well as ore sorting sensors for mining companies. In addition, the company provides post-harvest food solutions for fresh and processed food industries. The company was founded in 1972 and
Tomra Systems Stock at a Glance
Tomra Systems (TOM.OL) is currently trading at $97.70 with a market capitalization of $28.9B. The trailing P/E ratio stands at 31.72x, with a forward P/E of 13.83x. The 52-week range spans from $89.80 to $166.50; the current price is 41.3% below the yearly high. Year-over-year revenue growth stands at +9.2%. The net profit margin stands at 6.02%.
💰 Dividend
Tomra Systems pays an annual dividend of $2.15 per share, representing a yield of 2.2%. The payout ratio stands at 67.32%.
📊 Analyst Rating
9 analysts rate Tomra Systems (TOM.OL) on consensus: Buy. The average price target is $133.03, implying +36.16% from the current price. Analyst price targets range from $85.27 to $197.42.
Tomra Systems: The Investment Case in Detail
Tomra Systems (TOM.OL) operates in the Industrials — specifically Waste Management — and is headquartered in Norway. Below is a structured read of the investment case built directly from the latest fundamentals, valuation multiples, analyst positioning and smart-money flows. Each section translates raw numbers into the investment logic they imply, so you can decide whether the risk/reward fits your portfolio.
The Bull Case
With a gross margin near 61.75%, the company sits in the top tier of its industry — these are the kinds of structural margins that protect earnings during downturns. Wall Street consensus sits at Buy with an average price target implying roughly 36.16% upside from current levels — analyst sentiment is firmly constructive.
Valuation in Context
The EV/EBITDA multiple of 145.92x reflects rich expectations — historically, multiples at this level have proven hard to maintain for more than a few quarters.
What to Watch Next
- The forward P/E of 13.83x is meaningfully below the trailing 31.72x — analysts expect earnings to step up; the next earnings release is the test.
- The price sits in the lower quartile of the 52-week range — value hunters often start scaling in around this zone if fundamentals hold.
- The analyst consensus price target implies 36.16% upside — if the next two quarters confirm the underlying thesis, target hikes typically follow.
Investment Thesis: Strengths & Weaknesses
- High gross margin of 61.75% — indicates pricing power
- Analyst consensus: Buy
- Solid dividend yield of 2.2%
- Positive free cash flow
No significant red flags in current metrics.
Technical Snapshot
The price is in a transition zone relative to the moving averages — no clear signal.
Risk Profile
The data points to market-like volatility, higher leverage relative to equity.
Trading Data
💵 Dividend Info
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Tomra Systems 2026: EU Deposit-Return Rollout, Food-Sorting Recovery, and the Norwegian Recycling Pure-Play
The Real Story
Tomra Systems holds the dominant global position in two structurally growing markets in 2026: reverse vending (deposit-return systems) and sorting technology (food, recycling, mining). Q1/2026: revenue NOK 3.8B (+8.2% YoY), adjusted EBIT margin 12.4% (vs. 9.8% in Q1/2025), free cash flow NOK 280M.
The 2026 structural story has two levers: (1) EU deposit-return rollout: the EU Packaging Regulation 2025 forces member states to introduce deposit-return systems for PET bottles and aluminum cans by 2029. France, Spain, Poland and Italy are the next large markets in 2026/27 — Tomra is the market leader at above 70% share. The French rollout alone delivers NOK 800M of order volume in 2026–2028. (2) Food-sorting recovery: after two weak years (food investment delays), Q1/2026 shows pipeline growth of +18% YoY for the first time. EBIT margin in food should rise from 8% (2025) to 14% (2027).
The dividend story is classically Norwegian: Tomra plans NOK 1.50/share for FY2025 (from NOK 1.35 in 2024) — an 11% raise. Dividend yield at the current share price is only 1.8%, but Tomra has paid uninterrupted for 18 years.
What Smart Money Thinks
2026 shareholder register: Investment AB Latour (Swedish industrial holding) holds 31.4%, Folketrygdfondet (Norwegian state) 6.1%, BlackRock 3.8%. Free float roughly 55%.
Notable: Berenberg raised Tomra to European Top Pick in ESG/Industrials in Q1/2026 with the thesis ‘Tomra is the only pure-play on the EU deposit-return mandate’.
Explore the BMI Smart-Money Tracker →
📈 The 3 Real Bull Points
France (2027), Spain (2027), Poland (2028), and Italy (2028) are implementing EU-mandated deposit-return systems. Tomra at 70%+ share secures the majority of contract awards. Estimated incremental revenue 2026–2029: NOK 2B.
After two weak years, Q1/2026 shows pipeline growth for the first time. If EBIT margin in food rises from 8% to 14% by 2027 as planned, that is a NOK 300M EBIT lever — 15% of group EBIT growth.
EU Circular Economy Action, US EPA recycling mandates, and the China plastic ban expansion all drive structural demand. Tomra is the global leader in high-accuracy recycling sorting.
📉 The 3 Real Bear Points
Rollouts come in 1–2-year bursts per country. If an expected market slips (e.g. the French 2027 rollout by 6 months), Tomra quarterly revenue can drop 15%.
Tomra trades at 26× 2026 P/E — premium to the industrial median. If margin recovery in food lands slower than expected, 20%+ multiple compression is plausible.
Aurubis (recycling tech) and Coca-Cola/PepsiCo (in-house deposit-return for emerging markets) are small but growing competitors. Share erosion is possible in high-margin premium segments.
Valuation in Context
Tomra trades at 26× 2026 P/E and 16× EV/EBITDA. A DCF using 8% WACC and 5% terminal growth produces a NOK 130–155 fair-value range. The current price (~NOK 115) sits 13–35% below fair value. Dividend yield 1.8% on an 18-year track record.
🗓️ Next 3 Catalyst Dates
- August 2026: Q2/2026 earnings with the first clear pipeline update for France. Market expects NOK 250–350M of order volume.
- Q4 2026: Capital Markets Day with the 2028 mid-term plan. Market expects a 14% EBIT margin target (vs. current 12%).
- March 2027: AGM with the NOK 1.50/share dividend vote. The 19th consecutive hike.
💬 Daniel's Take
Tomra is my preferred ESG pure-play in 2026. The combination of an EU deposit-return mandate, food-sorting recovery, and Latour anchor shareholder makes it a multi-year compounding position. I run 1.5% portfolio weight via monthly DCA in NOK. If you want pure cleantech beta, ETFs are better — but if you want operational pure-play exposure to deposit-return systems, Tomra is uniquely positioned.
Sources (3)
Disclaimer: This article is not investment advice. Investing in stocks carries risks, including total loss.
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