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Tomra Systems

TOM.OL Large Cap

Industrials · Waste Management

Updated: May 22, 2026, 22:06 UTC

$98.50
+1.08% today
52W: $89.80 – $171.00
52W Low: $89.80 Position: 10.7% 52W High: $171.00

Key Metrics

P/E Ratio
33.97x
Price-to-Earnings
Forward P/E
14.5x
Forward Price/Earnings
P/S Ratio
21.61x
Price-to-Sales
EV/EBITDA
143.69x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA
Div. Yield
2.18%
Annual dividend yield
Market Cap
$29.1B
Market Capitalization
Revenue Growth
9.2%
YoY Revenue Growth
Profit Margin
6.02%
Net profit margin
ROE
13.78%
Return on Equity
Beta
1.13
Market sensitivity
Short Interest
—
% of float sold short
Avg. Volume
1,086,085
Average daily volume

Valuation Analysis

Signal
Overvalued
vs. S&P 500 avg P/E (24.7x)
Analyst Consensus
Strong Buy
10 analysts
Avg. Price Target
$133.04
+35.07% upside
Target Range
$83.61 – $189.85

About the Company

Tomra Systems ASA provides sensor-based solutions for optimal resource productivity worldwide. It operates through four segments: TOMRA Collection, TOMRA Recycling, TOMRA Food, and TOMRA Horizon. The company provides reverse vending machines and related data management systems; and provides pick-up, transportation, and processing services of empty beverage containers on behalf of beverage producers/fillers. It also develops, produces, sale, and service sorting and processing technology for waste management companies or plant builders; and provides sorting systems for waste and metal material streams, as well as ore sorting sensors for mining companies. In addition, the company provides post-harvest food solutions for fresh and processed food industries. The company was founded in 1972 and

Sector: Industrials Industry: Waste Management Country: Norway Employees: 5,800 Exchange: OSL

Tomra Systems Stock at a Glance

Tomra Systems (TOM.OL) is currently trading at $98.50 with a market capitalization of $29.1B. The trailing P/E ratio stands at 33.97x, with a forward P/E of 14.5x. The 52-week range spans from $89.80 to $171.00; the current price is 42.4% below the yearly high. Year-over-year revenue growth stands at +9.2%. The net profit margin stands at 6.02%.

💰 Dividend

Tomra Systems pays an annual dividend of $2.15 per share, representing a yield of 2.18%. The payout ratio stands at 67.32%.

📊 Analyst Rating

10 analysts rate Tomra Systems (TOM.OL) on consensus: Strong Buy. The average price target is $133.04, implying +35.07% from the current price. Analyst price targets range from $83.61 to $189.85.

Investment Thesis: Strengths & Weaknesses

Strengths
  • High gross margin of 61.75% — indicates pricing power
  • Analyst consensus: Strong Buy
  • Solid dividend yield of 2.18%
  • Positive free cash flow
Weaknesses
  • –Currently flagged as overvalued

Technical Snapshot

50-Day MA
$108.86
-9.52% vs. price
200-Day MA
$128.30
-23.23% vs. price
Below 52W High
−42.4%
$171.00
Above 52W Low
+9.7%
$89.80

Price is below both the 50- and 200-day moving averages, with 50d below 200d — a bearish picture (death-cross alignment).

Risk Profile

Market Risk (Beta)
1.13 · Market-like
Moves more than the overall market
Debt-to-Equity
106.76 · Elevated
Total debt / equity

The data points to market-like volatility, higher leverage relative to equity.

Trading Data

50-Day MA: $108.86
200-Day MA: $128.30
Volume: 664,998
Avg. Volume: 1,086,085
Short Ratio: —
P/B Ratio: 4.45x
Debt/Equity: 106.76x
Free Cash Flow: $261.1M

💵 Dividend Info

Dividend Yield
2.18%
Annual Rate
$2.15
Payout Ratio
67.32%

Tomra Systems 2026: EU Deposit-Return Rollout, Food-Sorting Recovery, and the Norwegian Recycling Pure-Play

The Real Story

Tomra Systems holds the dominant global position in two structurally growing markets in 2026: reverse vending (deposit-return systems) and sorting technology (food, recycling, mining). Q1/2026: revenue NOK 3.8B (+8.2% YoY), adjusted EBIT margin 12.4% (vs. 9.8% in Q1/2025), free cash flow NOK 280M.

The 2026 structural story has two levers: (1) EU deposit-return rollout: the EU Packaging Regulation 2025 forces member states to introduce deposit-return systems for PET bottles and aluminum cans by 2029. France, Spain, Poland and Italy are the next large markets in 2026/27 — Tomra is the market leader at above 70% share. The French rollout alone delivers NOK 800M of order volume in 2026–2028. (2) Food-sorting recovery: after two weak years (food investment delays), Q1/2026 shows pipeline growth of +18% YoY for the first time. EBIT margin in food should rise from 8% (2025) to 14% (2027).

The dividend story is classically Norwegian: Tomra plans NOK 1.50/share for FY2025 (from NOK 1.35 in 2024) — an 11% raise. Dividend yield at the current share price is only 1.8%, but Tomra has paid uninterrupted for 18 years.

What Smart Money Thinks

2026 shareholder register: Investment AB Latour (Swedish industrial holding) holds 31.4%, Folketrygdfondet (Norwegian state) 6.1%, BlackRock 3.8%. Free float roughly 55%.

Notable: Berenberg raised Tomra to European Top Pick in ESG/Industrials in Q1/2026 with the thesis ‘Tomra is the only pure-play on the EU deposit-return mandate’.

Explore the BMI Smart-Money Tracker →

📈 The 3 Real Bull Points

#1 EU deposit-return rollout 2026–2029 is an NOK 2B revenue lever

France (2027), Spain (2027), Poland (2028), and Italy (2028) are implementing EU-mandated deposit-return systems. Tomra at 70%+ share secures the majority of contract awards. Estimated incremental revenue 2026–2029: NOK 2B.

#2 Food-sorting margin recovery from 2026

After two weak years, Q1/2026 shows pipeline growth for the first time. If EBIT margin in food rises from 8% to 14% by 2027 as planned, that is a NOK 300M EBIT lever — 15% of group EBIT growth.

#3 Structural recycling tailwind from ESG regulation

EU Circular Economy Action, US EPA recycling mandates, and the China plastic ban expansion all drive structural demand. Tomra is the global leader in high-accuracy recycling sorting.

📉 The 3 Real Bear Points

#1 The deposit-return market is lumpy — earnings volatility

Rollouts come in 1–2-year bursts per country. If an expected market slips (e.g. the French 2027 rollout by 6 months), Tomra quarterly revenue can drop 15%.

#2 Valuation already prices the recovery

Tomra trades at 26× 2026 P/E — premium to the industrial median. If margin recovery in food lands slower than expected, 20%+ multiple compression is plausible.

#3 Competition from Aurubis and bottler in-house solutions

Aurubis (recycling tech) and Coca-Cola/PepsiCo (in-house deposit-return for emerging markets) are small but growing competitors. Share erosion is possible in high-margin premium segments.

Valuation in Context

Tomra trades at 26× 2026 P/E and 16× EV/EBITDA. A DCF using 8% WACC and 5% terminal growth produces a NOK 130–155 fair-value range. The current price (~NOK 115) sits 13–35% below fair value. Dividend yield 1.8% on an 18-year track record.

🗓️ Next 3 Catalyst Dates

  1. August 2026: Q2/2026 earnings with the first clear pipeline update for France. Market expects NOK 250–350M of order volume.
  2. Q4 2026: Capital Markets Day with the 2028 mid-term plan. Market expects a 14% EBIT margin target (vs. current 12%).
  3. March 2027: AGM with the NOK 1.50/share dividend vote. The 19th consecutive hike.

💬 Daniel's Take

Tomra is my preferred ESG pure-play in 2026. The combination of an EU deposit-return mandate, food-sorting recovery, and Latour anchor shareholder makes it a multi-year compounding position. I run 1.5% portfolio weight via monthly DCA in NOK. If you want pure cleantech beta, ETFs are better — but if you want operational pure-play exposure to deposit-return systems, Tomra is uniquely positioned.

Sources (3)

Disclaimer: This article is not investment advice. Investing in stocks carries risks, including total loss.

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