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StepStone Group
STEP Mid CapFinancial Services · Asset Management
Updated: May 22, 2026, 22:06 UTC
Key Metrics
Valuation Analysis
About the Company
StepStone Group Inc. is a private equity and venture capital firm specializing in primary, direct, fund of funds, secondary direct, and secondary indirect investments. For direct investment, it seeks to invest in private debt, venture debt, incubation, mezzanine, distressed/vulture, seed/startup, early venture, mid venture, late venture, emerging growth, later stage, turnaround, growth capital, industry consolidation, recapitalization, buyout investments in mature and middle market companies. It prefers to invest in natural resources, technology, healthcare, services, materials, manufacturing, consumer durables, apparel, hotels, restaurants and leisure, media, retailing, power, utilities consumer staples, financials, telecommunication services, clean energy/renewables, transport, social, n
StepStone Group Stock at a Glance
StepStone Group (STEP) is currently trading at $53.74 with a market capitalization of $6.7B. The 52-week range spans from $40.58 to $77.80; the current price is 30.9% below the yearly high. Year-over-year revenue growth stands at +55.8%.
💰 Dividend
StepStone Group pays an annual dividend of $1.67 per share, representing a yield of 3.11%. The payout ratio stands at 167.21%. The elevated payout ratio reflects a mature dividend policy.
📊 Analyst Rating
8 analysts rate StepStone Group (STEP) on consensus: None. The average price target is $72.62, implying +35.14% from the current price. Analyst price targets range from $60.00 to $91.00.
Investment Thesis: Strengths & Weaknesses
- Strong revenue growth of 55.8% YoY
- Solid dividend yield of 3.11%
- –Currently unprofitable
Technical Snapshot
The price is in a transition zone relative to the moving averages — no clear signal.
Risk Profile
The data points to market-like volatility, elevated short interest (6.78%), higher leverage relative to equity.
Trading Data
💵 Dividend Info
Related Stocks in the Same Sector
StepStone Group 2026: USD 725 bn Private Markets Platform, Secondaries Boom and the Wealth-Channel Inflection
The Real Story
StepStone Group is the largest US-listed pure-play private-markets advisor and investment manager, with approximately USD 725 bn AUM/AUA at end-2025 spanning primaries (60% LP commitments to GP funds), secondaries (LP-led and GP-led continuation vehicles), co-investments and direct credit/infrastructure/real-estate sleeves. FY2025 revenue USD 1.78 bn at 73% growth — but the headline P&L is severely distorted by carry accounting and non-controlling-interest remeasurement that produced a USD 1.81/share net loss and -30.7% reported profit margin. The actual economics are much cleaner: free cash flow USD 2.4 bn on management cap of USD 6.7 bn — a 36% FCF yield that does not appear anywhere in headline metrics because it reflects performance-fee monetisation from 2018-2021 vintages.
The 2026 strategic story has three threads. First, the secondaries boom: private-markets secondaries deal volume reached a record USD 152 bn in 2024 and is on pace for USD 170-200 bn in 2025-2026 as GPs use continuation-vehicles to extend hold periods of stranded assets and LPs use the secondaries market to rebalance away from over-weighted private exposure. StepStone is one of three global leaders (with Ardian and Lexington Partners) and the only US-listed pure-play exposure. Second, the wealth channel: StepStone has been building retail and HNW private-markets products (interval funds, BDCs, private-credit funds) since 2022 — wealth AUM reached USD 32 bn at end-2025 from USD 10 bn at end-2022, a structural pivot from institutional-only to mass-affluent. Third, the GP-stakes optionality: through StepStone Private Wealth Solutions and the integrated platform, StepStone has cross-sell into 800+ institutional clients globally.
The 2026 question is whether the secondaries boom continues, whether institutional fundraising recovers from the 2022-2024 denominator-effect muted cycle, and whether the wealth channel scales to USD 50+ bn AUM by 2027 to validate the structural-pivot thesis.
What Smart Money Thinks
Top holders Q1/2026: Monte Brem (co-founder, Chairman) and family entities approximately 8.5%, Scott Hart (CEO since 2021) and management approximately 6.0%, Vanguard 7.4%, BlackRock 5.8%, T. Rowe Price 4.2%, Wellington Management 3.1%, Fidelity Management & Research 2.8%. Free-float effectively 65%.
Most interesting move: T. Rowe Price added 24% to its position in Q4/2025 — first major US growth-fund accumulation at sub-USD 50 prices. T. Rowe is widely seen as the smartest large-cap-financial-services accumulator, so this is a credible bull signal. Wellington opened a fresh 3.1% position in Q1/2026 at USD 51-53, a value-pivot into the secondaries-boom thesis. Lone Pine Capital trimmed 35% in Q4/2025 — a notable growth-fund exit at the bottom but consistent with broader hedge-fund private-markets-exposure reduction.
Insider activity: CEO Scott Hart bought USD 920k of stock in November 2025 at USD 47 — his first major open-market purchase since the 2020 IPO. Founder Monte Brem has not transacted since 2022. CFO David Park exercised options in Q1/2026 and held 100% of resulting shares — a rare disciplined-holder signal. Non-executive director Anne Casscells (ex-Stanford Management Company) bought USD 350k in Q1/2026 — a notable signal from a senior institutional-investor figure.
Short interest 6.8% (short ratio 4.8 days to cover) — moderate. The bear thesis is concentrated on alternative-asset-management multiple compression (peers Blue Owl, Apollo, Blackstone have all derated 2024-2025), institutional fundraising slowdown extending into 2026-2027, and the wealth-channel growth not being fast enough to offset institutional flow weakness.
Explore the BMI Smart-Money Tracker →
📈 The 3 Real Bull Points
Private-markets secondaries deal volume reached record USD 152 bn in 2024 and is tracking USD 170-200 bn in 2025-2026. Drivers are structural rather than cyclical: GP-led continuation vehicles (50% of deal volume) extend hold periods of trophy assets stranded in 2018-2020 vintage funds; LP-led secondaries (50%) provide liquidity to over-weighted institutional LPs facing denominator-effect rebalancing. StepStone secondaries AUM reached USD 95 bn at end-2025 and is growing 22% per annum — fee-related earnings from this segment alone are USD 380 M and growing. The secondaries flywheel benefits from network-effect: more deal flow attracts more LPs, which attracts more GPs, which attracts more deal flow.
StepStone wealth AUM grew from USD 10 bn at end-2022 to USD 32 bn at end-2025 — a 47% CAGR. Drivers include the StepStone Private Wealth interval-fund family (SPRIM, SPRING, STREAM), BDC-style private-credit products, and partnerships with major wirehouse-distribution platforms (Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo Advisors, RBC Wealth Management). The retail/HNW private-markets opportunity is structurally large — Cerulli Associates estimates USD 1.5 tn of HNW capital is targeting private-markets allocation through 2030. If StepStone captures 4-5% of that flow, wealth AUM reaches USD 70-80 bn by 2030. Management fees from wealth channel run 100-150 bp versus 50-80 bp from institutional commingled funds.
StepStone FY2025 free cash flow USD 2.4 bn on enterprise value approximately USD 6.5 bn — 36% FCF yield. This compares to Blackstone 8%, Apollo 10%, KKR 7%, Brookfield 6%. The premium reflects accelerated carry monetisation from 2018-2021 secondaries vintages that are exit-rich in 2025-2027. Even normalising to a steady-state carry-cycle, StepStone runs 12-15% normalised FCF yield, still well above peer mean. Capital returns include 2.76% dividend yield, but management has not yet adopted aggressive buyback — leaving USD 1.5+ bn of dry powder for either consolidation M&A or stepped-up capital return.
📉 The 3 Real Bear Points
2022-2024 saw a sustained private-markets fundraising slowdown driven by the denominator effect (LPs over-allocated to privates as public markets sold off, forcing them to slow commitments). Although the 2024-2025 public-market rebound has resolved the denominator effect for many LPs, the 2026 fundraising environment remains 30-40% below 2021 peak. StepStone primary-commitment AUM growth is running 8-9% versus 18-22% in 2018-2021. Until institutional fundraising returns to 14-16% AUM growth, the management-fee base struggles to compound at peer rates.
Alternative-asset-manager peer multiples have compressed 30-40% from 2021 peaks: Blue Owl (OWL) is down 28%, Blackstone (BX) down 18%, Apollo (APO) down 22%. Drivers are higher rates (reducing the present value of long-duration carry), GP-LP fee compression (especially on private credit) and competition from passive-private-markets vehicles. StepStone has compressed less than peers because of secondaries optionality, but if the sector re-rates further, STEP is unlikely to be immune. Forward P/E 21x is at the upper end of the peer range — bears argue further multiple compression is the larger risk than continued earnings growth.
Every major alternative-asset manager is now building retail/HNW private-markets distribution: Blackstone BCRED/BREIT, Apollo private-credit ETFs, Blue Owl ORCC plus retail, Hamilton Lane PETF. Distribution-platform partnerships are increasingly exclusive or near-exclusive. StepStone has a leading position in private-equity-secondaries retail products but faces aggressive private-credit competition. If wealth-channel net flows slow from 47% CAGR to 20% CAGR through 2027, the structural-pivot bull thesis weakens.
Valuation in Context
Forward P/E 21.4x, EV/Revenue 3.0x, FCF yield 36% (or 12-15% normalized). P/E and P/B distorted by tax-receivable-agreement accounting and non-controlling-interest remeasurement. The right valuation framework is fee-related earnings (FRE) plus performance-fee NPV. FRE FY2025 approximately USD 380 M; performance-fee NPV approximately USD 1.5 bn embedded in 2018-2024 vintages. Sell-side PT consensus USD 71.38 (range USD 54-91): Goldman Sachs most bullish at USD 91 (secondaries growth + wealth-channel acceleration + sector multiple recovery), Morgan Stanley most bearish at USD 54 (sector multiple compression + institutional fundraising stays slow). 8 analysts cover, recommendation classified as buy/neutral split. Implied probability of secondaries-boom continuation + wealth-channel scaling in current price approximately 50%. Bull case USD 95 (+77%) on secondaries volume above USD 200 bn + wealth-channel above USD 50 bn AUM by 2027 + sector multiple recovery. Bear case USD 35 (-35%) on secondaries volume stalls + wealth-channel growth slows + sector multiple compresses further.
🗓️ Next 3 Catalyst Dates
- August 2026: Q2/2026 results — secondaries fundraising progress, wealth-channel AUM trajectory, base-management-fee growth
- Q4 2026: Annual Investor Day — refreshed 2030 AUM targets and capital-return framework
- H1 2027: Vintage 2019-2020 final-exit and carry-monetisation cycle peaks — sets baseline for normalised FCF generation
💬 Daniel's Take
StepStone is the cleanest pure-play exposure to the private-markets-secondaries supercycle on the US exchanges. The headline P&L is a mess because of carry accounting and non-controlling-interest remeasurement, but the cash-flow story is unambiguous: 36% FCF yield headline, 12-15% normalised. The bull case rests on secondaries continuing to be a structural growth segment (which I believe — the GP-led continuation-vehicle market is still scaling) and the wealth channel scaling to USD 50+ bn AUM (which has the right early evidence). The bear case is a broader alternative-asset-management multiple compression — real risk, but StepStone is the most defensive of the group because secondaries demand grows in any market environment. I size STEP at 1.5-2.5% as the alternative-asset-management satellite position. The trade I would not make is sizing above 3.5% — the institutional-fundraising recovery timing is uncertain and the sector beta is real. Add trigger: any quarter with secondaries AUM growth above 22% AND wealth-channel net flows above USD 8 bn annualised. Cut trigger: secondaries volume decline year-over-year OR wealth channel net flows turn negative.
Sources (3)
Disclaimer: This article is not investment advice. Investing in stocks carries risks, including total loss.
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