Scout24

Scout24 is the German real-estate-marketplace duopoly leader — ImmoScout24 dominates residential and commercial real-estate classifieds in the DACH region with roughly 50% national market share against Immowelt (Springer-owned) and a long tail of regional players. FY2025 revenue EUR 581 M at 60% adjusted EBITDA margin — these are software-like economics on a category that has structurally moated network effects (renters/buyers go to the largest inventory; landlords/agents list where the most eyeballs are).

The 2026 narrative has three threads. First, the German residential real-estate transaction recovery: 2024 was the worst German housing-transaction year since 1995, but Q1/2026 transaction volumes are +18% YoY as ECB rate cuts (2024-2025 from 4.5% peak to 2.25% current) restore affordability. Scout24 revenue is tied to listing volumes which lead transaction volumes by 2-3 months. Second, the agent-pricing-tier-mix shift: Scout24 launched the Plus subscription product in 2023 — by Q1/2026, 32% of agents had upgraded from basic to Plus or Premium (vs target 25% by end-2026). The mix shift adds 4-6 percentage points to revenue growth without needing volume growth. Third, the Sparwelt acquisition (consumer-finance vertical, closed 2024) is beginning to monetise — Sparwelt unique users hit 4.2 M monthly by Q1/2026.

Top holders Q1/2026: BlackRock 7.4%, Vanguard 4.2%, T Rowe Price 3.5%, Lansdowne Partners 3.1%, Norges Bank 2.8%. The Lansdowne position is the most interesting — they've been adding for 18 consecutive months. No founder-family control (Scout24 went public 2015 via Hellman & Friedman / Blackstone PE exit).

Most notable institutional move: Generation Investment Management opened 1.2% position in February 2026. Comgest Growth Europe added 28% to existing position in Q1/2026. Both are European-quality-compounder consensus names.

Insider activity: CEO Tobias Hartmann bought EUR 480k of stock in November 2025 at EUR 64 (now EUR 72.55, +13%) — his largest open-market purchase as CEO. CFO Dirk Schmelzer exercised options Q1/2026 and held all resulting shares. Chair Peter Schwarzenbauer made small symbolic purchases throughout 2025.

Short interest 1.2%, near 5-year low. Consensus view is recovery thesis with consumer-finance optionality.

Forward P/E 15.6x against European internet-classifieds median 18x (Rightmove 24x, Auto Trader 22x, Adevinta 16x). EV/EBITDA 11.4x in line with sector. Sell-side PT consensus EUR 88 (range EUR 70-110): Berenberg most bullish at EUR 110 (assumes German recovery + Sparwelt cross-sell delivers), Morgan Stanley most bearish at EUR 70 (Immowelt competition + plateau recovery). Implied probability of FY2026 +14% revenue growth in current price ~60%. Bull case EUR 105 (+45%) on FY2026 revenue +18% + Sparwelt EUR 60 M revenue contribution. Bear case EUR 56 (-23%) on Immowelt competition + flat recovery.

1. Q2 2026 earnings (August): First reading on agent-tier-mix-shift trajectory in recovery environment
2. Throughout 2026: German monthly transaction-volume prints — leading indicator for Scout24 revenue
3. Q4 2026: Sparwelt FY2026 revenue contribution disclosure — first material monetisation check

Scout24 is the German real-estate recovery play for investors who believe ECB rate cuts plus pent-up housing demand structurally drive transaction volumes for 18-24 months. The Plus mix-shift is a multi-year compounding story independent of the macro cycle. I find the asymmetry compelling: 40-45% upside on recovery + Plus + Sparwelt all delivering, 20-23% downside on Immowelt competition and plateau scenario. I size G24 at 2-3% as a European internet-classifieds allocation. Add trigger: any quarter showing Plus penetration above 35% AND German transaction volumes +20% YoY. The trade I would not make is shorting this on rate-pause concerns — German housing has 10+ years of structural undersupply that rate cuts merely unlock.