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Scatec
SCATC.OL Large CapUtilities · Utilities - Renewable
Updated: May 21, 2026, 22:07 UTC
Key Metrics
Valuation Analysis
About the Company
Scatec ASA, together with its subsidiaries, provides renewable energy solutions. The company operates through Power Production and Development & Construction segments. It produces and sells solar, wind, and hydro generated electricity. The company also develops, builds, owns, and operates solar, wind, and hydro power plants; and storage solutions, including solar, wind, hydropower, battery storage and hybrid systems. The company is also involved in the engineering, procurement, and construction activities. It has operations in South Africa, Egypt, Ukraine, Malaysia, Pakistan, Jordan, Honduras, the Czech Republic, Botswana, Vietnam, and internationally. The company was formerly known as Scatec Solar ASA and changed its name to Scatec ASA in November 2020. Scatec ASA was incorporated in 2007
Scatec Stock at a Glance
Scatec (SCATC.OL) is currently trading at $107.50 with a market capitalization of $17.2B. The trailing P/E ratio stands at 335.94x, with a forward P/E of 11.96x. The 52-week range spans from $84.20 to $137.60; the current price is 21.9% below the yearly high. Year-over-year revenue growth stands at -1.3%. The net profit margin stands at 1.55%.
💰 Dividend
Scatec currently does not pay a dividend. The company typically reinvests its earnings into growth initiatives and product development.
📊 Analyst Rating
9 analysts rate Scatec (SCATC.OL) on consensus: Strong Buy. The average price target is $129.89, implying +20.83% from the current price. Analyst price targets range from $120.00 to $150.00.
Investment Thesis: Strengths & Weaknesses
- High gross margin of 100% — indicates pricing power
- Analyst consensus: Strong Buy
- –Revenue shrinking (-1.3% YoY)
- –Low profitability (1.55% margin)
- –High valuation multiple (P/E 335.94x)
- –Currently flagged as overvalued
- –High leverage (D/E 272.69)
- –Negative free cash flow
Technical Snapshot
The price is in a transition zone relative to the moving averages — no clear signal.
Risk Profile
The data points to market-like volatility, higher leverage relative to equity.
Trading Data
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Scatec 2026: 5.9 GW Backlog, Egypt Obelisk Live — and the Market Doesn't Love the Story
The Real Story
Scatec ASA is Norway's largest independent solar developer — and 2026 is the perfect example of how the market systematically misprices project-development companies. Q1 2026 earnings (early May) showed revenue NOK 1.6B, EBITDA NOK 774M, plus an all-time-high backlog of 5.9 GW generation capacity and 4.6 GWh of battery storage projects. The stock reacted with -7.39% — because the market focused on the negative free cash flow of -NOK 4.9B instead of the pipeline buildout.
The central catalyst in 2026 is the Egypt Obelisk project: 1.1 GW solar + 100 MW/200 MWh battery. The first phase reached commercial operations date (COD) in Q1 2026, phase 2 is under construction with expected COD in summer 2026. On top of that, Scatec signed a mega-PPA in Egypt in fall 2025 for 1.95 GW solar + 3.9 GWh BESS — the largest single transaction in African renewables history.
Geographic diversification is impressive: Tunisia (180 MW across two projects), Romania (190 MW Dobrun & Sadova, construction started), Colombia (130 MW Barzalosa, financial close reached), South Africa (255 MW Thakadu via Lyra Energy private offtake). Scatec deliberately spreads investments across emerging markets with USD/EUR-denominated PPAs — that hedges against NOK volatility.
What Smart Money Thinks
Scatec is primarily traded on the Oslo Stock Exchange and therefore doesn't appear in US 13F reports — no Buffett, Burry, or Druckenmiller position. The institutional anchor structure is classically Nordic long-term: Folketrygdfondet (Norwegian state fund, ~5% stake), Storebrand Asset Management, and DNB Asset Management are the most important local holders. Plus a position from Equinor's family of funds via Equinor Ventures.
The decisive smart-money aspect: Aker Horizons (Kjell Inge Røkke's holding) has held ~14% since 2022 — Røkke is perhaps Norway's most prominent industrial builder (Aker BP, Aker Solutions, Akastor) and has bet heavily on renewables. Aker Horizons hasn't sold a share in 2025, which given the weak share performance (-30% from the 52-week high) is a strong signal.
In the active international holder pool, BlackRock and Vanguard show positions via sustainability/energy-transition ETFs, and Generation Investment Management (Al Gore's fund) accumulated shares in 2024-2025. Insider activity: CEO Terje Pilskog and CFO Hans Jakob Hegge made no unusual trades in 2025.
Explore the BMI Smart-Money Tracker →
📈 The 3 Real Bull Points
With 5.9 GW solar/wind plus 4.6 GWh battery storage in the backlog, Scatec has multi-year revenue visibility deep into 2028. At a capex of $0.8-1.0/W for utility-scale solar and 25-year PPAs, that translates to cumulative future power-sale revenue of $5-6B — versus today's market cap of NOK 16.7B (~$1.55B). The risk adjustment for financing and construction-phase risks is 70-80%, but even then the valuation is materially below theoretical NPV.
In Egypt, Scatec doesn't just have the 1.1 GW Obelisk plant live — it has signed the next mega-deal for 1.95 GW solar + 3.9 GWh BESS, the largest solar-storage project in Africa. At a PPA price of ~$25/MWh over 25 years, that's ~$25B in lifetime revenue for the combined pipeline. Egypt is Scatec's strategic hub for sub-Saharan Africa expansion and brings investment-grade counterparty risk via IFC and World Bank backing.
Despite ROE pressure (0.27%) due to the massive capex program, Scatec trades at a forward P/E of just 11.59× — that's on 2027 earnings basis, when most projects in Egypt and Romania reach run-rate. 9 analysts give 'strong_buy' median, target NOK 129.89 (range 120-150), +24.7% upside from the current NOK 104.20. If operating margin climbs to 38-40% in 2027 (vs. 34.7% today) and capex normalizes, 2028 P/E is below 8×.
📉 The 3 Real Bear Points
The D/E ratio of 272% is among the highest among European renewable developers, and TTM FCF of -NOK 4.9B shows how much cash is flowing into project buildout. If rates rise again in 2026/27 OR a project fails in the construction phase (e.g., Tunisia political risk, Egypt currency devaluation), refinancing ~NOK 25B of project debt becomes expensive. Management has equity-raise options, but any equity issue at NOK 104 is dilution.
Chinese PV module makers cut prices 35% in 2025, which lowers Scatec's capex but simultaneously squeezes PPA prices in new tenders. In Tunisia a PPA was signed in 2026 at $24.5/MWh — two years ago that would have been $32-35. If pricing in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa continues to fall, project IRR ranges shrink from a historical 12-15% to 8-10%.
With NOK 11B in equity and only NOK 56M of TTM net income, ROE lands at 0.27% — effectively a loss after cost of capital. This is symptomatic of developer companies in the early project phase, but if the capex cycle doesn't normalize in 2027, permanent equity dilution becomes likely. With a book value of NOK 86.40/share and a price of NOK 104.20, the P/B ratio is 1.21 — barely any margin of safety.
Valuation in Context
Scatec currently trades at a forward P/E of 11.59×, EV/EBITDA of 19.54×, and a PEG that's not meaningful given 0% earnings growth. The trailing P/E of 325× reflects the capex investment phase and is irrelevant. For a sensible valuation you need a sum-of-the-parts: power production segment (NOK 9-10B NPV at 7% WACC), development & construction pipeline (NOK 4-5B risk-adjusted NPV on 5.9 GW backlog), and 4.6 GWh battery-storage optionality (NOK 2-3B). Sum: NOK 16-19B — matches today's market cap of NOK 16.7B, but analyst consensus of NOK 129.89/share implies NOK 20.8B market cap as fair value (median, 9 analysts 'strong_buy'). Bull case with full Egypt pipeline realization and Brazil/Mexico expansion: NOK 150+. Bear case with Egypt currency crisis and Tunisia political risk: NOK 70-80.
🗓️ Next 3 Catalyst Dates
- Summer 2026: COD of Obelisk Phase 2 in Egypt — additional 550 MW solar + 50 MW/100 MWh battery online, should materially lift Q3 earnings
- Q3 2026: Financial close for Thakadu 255 MW in South Africa plus potential new PPAs in Brazil and Saudi Arabia — backlog expansion past 7 GW could trigger re-rating
- Capital Markets Day Q4 2026: Updated 2030 targets — if Scatec gives a 15+ GW target for 2030 (vs. 12 GW today), that would strengthen the SOTP story
💬 Daniel's Take
Scatec is, for me, a classic long-patience trade: not a 12-month doubler, but a 5-year compounder on the strategic energy transition. Balance-sheet concerns are real (D/E 272%) — but Aker Horizons as a 14% anchor shows industry insiders consider the story intact. My add-trigger: stock below NOK 90 (a 30% discount to the analyst median). My sell signal: Egypt currency devaluation above 20% or a concrete equity-raise announcement. Position size: 1-2% max because of EM concentration and balance-sheet leverage. If you're long renewables and understand the EM sub-Saharan story — Scatec is the best-in-class Norwegian play.
Sources (3)
Disclaimer: This article is not investment advice. Investing in stocks carries risks, including total loss.
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