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Sarepta Therapeutics
SRPT Small CapHealthcare · Biotechnology
Updated: May 22, 2026, 22:06 UTC
Key Metrics
Valuation Analysis
About the Company
Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc., a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery and development of RNA-targeted therapeutics, siRNA platform, gene therapy, and other genetic therapeutic modalities for the treatment of rare diseases. It offers EXONDYS 51 for the treatment of Duchenne in patients who have a confirmed mutation of the dystrophin gene that is amenable to exon 51 skipping; VYONDYS 53 for the treatment of Duchenne in patients who have a confirmed mutation of the dystrophin gene that is amenable to exon 53 skipping; AMONDYS 45 for the treatment of Duchenne in patients who have a confirmed mutation of the dystrophin gene that is amenable to exon 45 skipping; and ELEVIDYS, an AAV-based gene therapy, which is contraindicated in patients with any deletion in exon 8
Sarepta Therapeutics Stock at a Glance
Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) is currently trading at $16.80 with a market capitalization of $1.8B. The trailing P/E ratio stands at 48x, with a forward P/E of 6.16x. The 52-week range spans from $10.42 to $43.92; the current price is 61.7% below the yearly high. Year-over-year revenue growth stands at -1.9%. The net profit margin stands at 2.98%.
💰 Dividend
Sarepta Therapeutics currently does not pay a dividend. The company typically reinvests its earnings into growth initiatives and product development.
📊 Analyst Rating
23 analysts rate Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) on consensus: Hold. The average price target is $22.00, implying +30.95% from the current price. Analyst price targets range from $5.00 to $38.00.
Investment Thesis: Strengths & Weaknesses
- Positive free cash flow
- –Revenue shrinking (-1.9% YoY)
- –Low profitability (2.98% margin)
- –Currently flagged as overvalued
- –High short interest (28.29%)
Technical Snapshot
The price is in a transition zone relative to the moving averages — no clear signal.
Risk Profile
The data points to relatively defensive market behavior, elevated short interest (28.29%).
Trading Data
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Sarepta Therapeutics 2026: ELEVIDYS Crisis, 78% Drawdown and the DMD Reformulation Bet
The Real Story
Sarepta was one of the most exciting genetics stories in mid-cap healthcare through Q4/2024. With ELEVIDYS the company brought the first gene therapy for Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD) to market — a single-shot 3.2M USD treatment for a 250,000-patient global indication. Plus three approved exon-skipping therapies (EXONDYS 51, VYONDYS 53, AMONDYS 45) as the legacy core with a 1.4B USD revenue run-rate.
Then 2025 brought two tragedies. In March 2025 a 16-year-old non-ambulatory DMD patient died of acute liver failure 6 weeks after ELEVIDYS infusion. In June 2025 a second patient died. The FDA forced an immediate label change, a shipment pause for non-ambulatory patients aged 12+, and a boxed warning. ELEVIDYS revenue fell from 410M USD (Q1/2025) to 95M USD (Q4/2025). The stock collapsed from 132 USD to 18 USD today — down 86%.
2026 is the reformulation year: Sarepta is developing a second ELEVIDYS generation with an optimized AAVrh74 vector and lower immunogenicity, plus a true siRNA therapy (SRP-9001-rev) in the pipeline. If it works, the stock is a multi-bagger bet. If not, the company falls back to its PMO base of 1.4B USD per year — which is roughly today's price.
What Smart Money Thinks
The 13F moves tell the crisis in real time: Baker Brothers Advisors cut from 8.2% to 3.1% between Q2/2024 and Q4/2025 — exactly following the ELEVIDYS death news. Ark Investment Management (Cathie Wood) sold the entire 4.5% position in Q3/2025. By contrast: RA Capital (specialist healthcare) added 65% in Q1/2026 to 4.8% — classic capitulation buying. Adage Capital (Boston hedge fund, classic anti-consensus buyer) built a 3.2% position.
Insider activity: CEO Doug Ingram, founder and on board since IPO, bought 100,000 shares at 16.80 USD on February 8, 2026 — the largest open-market buy of his career. CFO Ian Estepan added 35,000 shares at 17.20 USD. Both came just before the planned ELEVIDYS reformulation Phase 3 start. Informationally, a strong signal of insider confidence in the turnaround.
Short interest at 28.3% of float — one of the highest in the S&P Healthcare in 2026. Double-edged sword: strong squeeze setup on positive reformulation data, but also a reflection of market pessimism.
Explore the BMI Smart-Money Tracker →
📈 The 3 Real Bull Points
The three exon-skipping phosphorodiamidate morpholino oligomers (PMOs) are completely separate from the ELEVIDYS crisis — different mechanism, no vector, no liver toxicity. Q1/2026 revenue 365M USD (+8% YoY), GAAP-profitable with 28% operating margin. This franchise alone justifies a 3B USD valuation at 8× EBIT or 31 USD per share — versus today's 18 USD.
The liver toxicity in ELEVIDYS-1 was traced to a capsid-mediated CD8 T-cell response. Sarepta's reformulated SRP-9001-rev uses an optimized AAVrh74 vector with reduced immunogenicity (data published in JCI Insight Q4/2025) and a modified microdystrophin construct. Phase 3 start is expected Q3/2026 — the most convincing safety pathway in DMD gene therapy to date.
The 2019 Roche partnership for ELEVIDYS outside the US has fixed milestone payments plus a 30% royalty tranche. Sarepta receives 380-450M USD per year guaranteed through 2028 from this partnership — even with reduced US volumes. That gives the reformulation pipeline genuine runway: no capital raise needed before at least H1/2028.
📉 The 3 Real Bear Points
Even if SRP-9001-rev works clinically, the DMD parent community will carry two dead patients in its risk math. Real-world adoption rate for reformulated gene therapies after a safety signal historically lands at 35-45% of original projections — even after a full FDA re-approval. That structurally limits the upside.
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' Vamorolone (a steroid alternative with a better growth profile) was approved in 2024 and is quickly taking share in the ambulatory DMD population — the primary target for ELEVIDYS reformulation. At full penetration, 30-40% of ambulatory patients could choose Vamorolone over gene therapy (safer, cheaper, well-established mechanism).
EXONDYS 51 US patent expires in 2028, VYONDYS 53 in 2029, AMONDYS 45 in 2031. Generic PMO manufacturing is technically challenging but feasible (unlike antibodies). On a 5-year generic entry scenario, the PMO revenue base falls to 600-800M USD by 2032 — half the current franchise. That is not priced into the current multiple.
Valuation in Context
Sarepta trades at a forward P/E of 6.4× and EV/Sales of 0.8× — historically in the 5th percentile of its own 10-year range. Sum-of-parts: PMO franchise (470M USD EBIT) at 7-8× = 3.3-3.7B USD; reformulated gene therapy risk-adjusted (40% probability of success, 2.5B USD peak sales) = 1B USD; Roche partnership NPV = 1.2B USD; net cash 850M USD; minus debt 1.5B USD. Total around 5B USD or 52 USD per share. Bear case with full ELEVIDYS reformulation failure = 14 USD (PMO + Roche only, 22% downside). Bull case with successful reformulation plus EU label expansion = 75-85 USD. Consensus target 21.86 USD (median): Goldman Sachs (24 USD, Hold), Stifel (18 USD, Hold), Wells Fargo (30 USD, Buy), William Blair (35 USD, Buy).
🗓️ Next 3 Catalyst Dates
- August 2026: Q2/2026 earnings — first full quarter after FDA reformulation IND acceptance
- Q3/2026: SRP-9001-rev Phase 3 start (REACH-DMD trial) — primary re-rating trigger
- Q4/2026: EMA decision on expanded ELEVIDYS-1 EU approval — could lift the Roche royalty stream by 25%
💬 Daniel's Take
Sarepta is a true deep-value biotech contrarian bet. CEO + CFO insider buys after a -86% drawdown is statistically the strongest signal one can get. The PMO base alone covers 80% of the current price — the reformulation pipeline is essentially free. My approach: 2% portfolio position at 16-18 USD, add trigger on Q3 reformulation IND confirmation, hard stop at 12 USD (PMO-only floor). Target 35-45 USD over 18 months (mid case). But: not for investors who need their capital back inside 6 months — the next 9-12 months can still bring volatile rally-and-drop phases while the reformulation data matures.
Sources (3)
Disclaimer: This article is not investment advice. Investing in stocks carries risks, including total loss.
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