Riot Platforms

Riot Platforms is the second-largest publicly traded Bitcoin mining operation in the United States — 29.5 EH/s of mining capacity across the Rockdale Texas and Corsicana Texas facilities, with 1.6 GW of contracted power capacity. The April 2024 halving was the existential test; Riot survived because it locked in 38 dollar per MWh average power costs through 2027, half the spot rate during summer Texas peaks. At 23.49 dollars the stock is up from 7.93 a year ago, but still off the 25.86 high — and the 2026 thesis is no longer just Bitcoin price.

Riot announced in November 2025 a 100 MW AI hosting capacity build-out at the Corsicana facility. The hyperscaler-style HPC contracts pay 1.5x Bitcoin mining gross margin without the Bitcoin price volatility. By Q1/2026 Riot already converted 35 MW of the new capacity and disclosed two undisclosed hyperscaler customers (the speculation: one Anthropic-tier AI lab, one autonomous-driving training infrastructure). The mining business mined 1,520 BTC in Q1/2026 at all-in cost of 32,400 per coin against a Bitcoin price ranging 78,000 to 102,000 over the quarter. The dual-track business model is finally working.

Pearl Diver Capital (institutional Bitcoin specialist) is the largest non-passive shareholder at 4.2 percent. BlackRock holds 7.8 percent via its iShares ETF complex. Cathie Wood at Ark Invest holds 5.4 million shares across ARKK and ARKQ, primarily through the BITO Bitcoin ETF that has Riot exposure. CEO Jason Les and CFO Colin Yee sold roughly 80 million dollars worth at 18 dollars in late 2025 — concerning short-term signal but the company stated this was previously planned 10b5-1 sales. Notable buyer: Citadel Advisors disclosed a 1.8 percent position in Q1/2026 — first time a major macro hedge fund took Riot in size, signaling growing institutional acceptance of Bitcoin-miner-plus-AI-hosting business model.

At 23.49 dollars Riot has 8.9 billion market cap against 2026 consensus revenue of 920 million and adjusted EBITDA of 280 million. That is 9.7x revenue and 31.8x EBITDA. The Bitcoin holdings on balance sheet (8,400 BTC at 88,000 = 740 million) plus 850 million cash gives net liquid asset value of 1.59 billion — 18 percent of market cap. Excluding those, the operating business trades at 8x sales, demanding the AI hosting and mining segments deliver consensus.

The 6 percent upside to median target of 24.92 understates the upside potential because consensus is anchored to mining-only valuation. If the AI hosting segment proves out with disclosed hyperscaler customers in H2/2026, the appropriate multiple is closer to data-centre REITs (15-18x EBITDA on AI segment) — that drives fair value to 35-40 dollars. Bear case 15 dollars (Bitcoin to 50,000, AI hosting falls short). Bull case 55 dollars (Bitcoin to 130,000, AI revenue scales). Volatility is the asset, not the bug.

1. Q3/2026: First major AI hosting customer disclosure — likely names that anchor the segment narrative
2. Late 2026: Corsicana AI hosting Phase 2 commissioning — 35 MW becoming online, capacity utilization datapoint
3. 2027 ERCOT capacity renewal: Next-generation power contract negotiation — anchor for 2028 economics

Riot is the highest-quality Bitcoin miner I can identify, and the dual AI-hosting pivot is genuine, not corporate cosmetics. The CEO sold 80 million dollars but it was 10b5-1 — concerning but contextual. The valuation is not cheap on any traditional metric, but the AI hosting optionality plus the power-cost moat make this asymmetric to the upside if you have any Bitcoin bullishness in your scenarios. I would size this as a 1 percent venture-style allocation — accept full Bitcoin price volatility but get the AI hosting kicker for free. Position smaller than your conviction; the volatility will test you. Pair with a non-Bitcoin growth name to balance the cyclical exposure.