Restaurant Brands
QSR Large CapConsumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Updated: Jul 5, 2026, 22:19 UTC
Price Chart
Key Metrics
Valuation Analysis
About the Company
Restaurant Brands International Inc. operates as a quick service restaurant company in Canada, the United States, and internationally. It operates through six segments: Tim Hortons, Burger King, Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen, Firehouse Subs, International, and Restaurant Holdings. The company owns and franchises Tim Hortons, a coffee and baked good restaurant chain that offers beverages, sandwiches, wraps, flatbread pizzas, and others; Burger King, a quick service hamburger restaurant chain that offers flame-grilled hamburgers, chicken, and other sandwiches; Popeyes, a quick service chicken concept that offers a Louisiana style menu, including fried bone-in chicken, chicken sandwiches, chicken tenders, wings, fried shrimp, and regional items; and Firehouse Subs, which offers subs with meats an
Restaurant Brands Stock at a Glance
Restaurant Brands (QSR) is currently trading at $74.79 with a market capitalization of $34.1B. The trailing P/E ratio stands at 24.05x, with a forward P/E of 16.85x. The 52-week range spans from $61.33 to $81.96; the current price is 8.7% below the yearly high. Year-over-year revenue growth stands at +7.3%. The net profit margin stands at 9.96%.
💰 Dividend
Restaurant Brands pays an annual dividend of $2.60 per share, representing a yield of 3.48%. The payout ratio stands at 80.71%. The elevated payout ratio reflects a mature dividend policy.
📊 Analyst Rating
24 analysts rate Restaurant Brands (QSR) on consensus: Buy. The average price target is $85.67, implying +14.54% from the current price. Analyst price targets range from $78.00 to $100.00.
Restaurant Brands: The Investment Case in Detail
Restaurant Brands (QSR) operates in the Consumer Cyclical — specifically Restaurants — and is headquartered in United States. Below is a structured read of the investment case built directly from the latest fundamentals, valuation multiples, analyst positioning and smart-money flows. Each section translates raw numbers into the investment logic they imply, so you can decide whether the risk/reward fits your portfolio.
The Bull Case
Earnings growth of 100% is outpacing revenue, a sign of operational leverage — fixed costs are being absorbed across a larger base. Return on equity of 28.14% places management among the most capital-efficient operators in the public market — every euro of shareholder capital is working hard.
The Bear Case
The debt-to-equity ratio of 296.41% is elevated, meaning the company relies heavily on creditors — refinancing terms will become more important than operational performance in the next economic downturn.
Valuation in Context
The PEG ratio at 1.26 sits in the reasonable zone — the price tag is roughly aligned with the company's growth profile, neither punishing nor euphoric.
Smart-Money Signal
On the institutional side, Restaurant Brands appears in the disclosed holdings of Ackman. Smart-money managers track positioning, fundamentals and competitive dynamics with research budgets few retail investors can match — when several converge on the same name, it is rarely random. That doesn't mean blind copying makes sense, but it does raise the bar for the bear case.
What to Watch Next
- The forward P/E of 16.85x is meaningfully below the trailing 24.05x — analysts expect earnings to step up; the next earnings release is the test.
Investment Thesis: Strengths & Weaknesses
- High return on equity (28.14% ROE)
- Analyst consensus: Buy
- Solid dividend yield of 3.48%
- Positive free cash flow
- –High leverage (D/E 296.41)
Technical Snapshot
Price shows short-term weakness (below 50d MA) but is still in a longer-term uptrend (above 200d MA).
Risk Profile
The data points to relatively defensive market behavior, elevated short interest (6.07%), higher leverage relative to equity.
Trading Data
💵 Dividend Info
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Restaurant Brands 2026: Ackman's 12-Year Tim Hortons + BK + Popeyes Compounder
The Real Story
Restaurant Brands International is Bill Ackman's third-longest active position — Pershing Square has held QSR continuously since the 2014 IPO when Burger King merged with Tim Hortons. The 2017 Popeyes acquisition and the 2021 Firehouse Subs deal built a 4-brand portfolio with 32,000 global restaurants generating $9.6B revenue at 26% operating margin. Pershing Square holds 24.5M shares (~$2.0B) as of Q1/2026, the unchanged position since Q3/2024.
The 2026 story is the post-Patrick-Doyle CEO transition. Patrick Doyle, who joined as Executive Chairman in 2023 (the former Domino's CEO who 7×'d that stock), became full CEO in January 2025 after Josh Kobza stepped down. Doyle's operational playbook is now actively implemented across all four brands: digital-order mix, drive-thru speed, franchisee economic alignment. Q1/2026 system-wide same-store sales grew +3.8% — the strongest comp in 7 quarters.
The unappreciated leg is the international Burger King re-franchising. QSR completed its $1B acquisition of Carrols Restaurant Group (largest US Burger King franchisee) in May 2025 and is now refranchising 600+ acquired locations at premium multiples. The math: buy at $2M per restaurant from Carrols, sell at $3M+ to qualified franchisees, take 5% royalty for 20+ years. Pure value creation that flows directly to EPS.
What Smart Money Thinks
Bill Ackman's Pershing Square has held Restaurant Brands continuously since the 2014 IPO. Pershing holds 24.5M shares ($2.0B at $80) as of Q1/2026 — unchanged for 6 consecutive quarters. The original cost basis is below $30 (pre-merger 3G/Pershing arrangement) — implying ~170% gain plus 12 years of compounding dividends. QSR is the textbook 'Ackman-3G partnership' position that the activism playbook turned into a forever holding.
Other notable smart-money: 3G Capital (Jorge Paulo Lemann) holds 100M shares (~31% of total outstanding) — the dominant shareholder. Akre Capital owns 4.1M shares (held since 2017); Capital Group (12M shares); Vanguard (24M shares). Active managers: David Tepper's Appaloosa increased by 2.1M shares in Q4/2025 — citing 'Doyle's Domino's playbook starting to compound in BK + Popeyes' as the thesis.
Insider activity (Form 4): Executive Chairman Patrick Doyle has not sold a single share since joining in 2023 — and personally owns 1.2M shares (~$96M). CEO Joshua Kobza sold 85,000 shares in February 2026 at $77 (routine 10b5-1 plan). The Doyle-no-sell pattern combined with operational improvements at Tim Hortons (Q1/2026 Canada same-store sales +5.2% — first 5%+ print since 2017) is the underdiscussed bullish tell.
Explore the BMI Smart-Money Tracker →
📈 The 3 Real Bull Points
Patrick Doyle, former Domino's CEO who took DPZ from $9 in 2010 to $440 in 2022 (49× return), is now Executive Chairman / CEO at QSR. Doyle's playbook (digital order mix, franchise economics alignment, brand-by-brand operational execution) is being applied across BK, Tim Hortons, Popeyes, and Firehouse simultaneously. Q1/2026 same-store sales growth of 3.8% is the strongest in 7 quarters — early evidence the playbook is working.
Tim Hortons Canada same-store sales grew +5.2% in Q1/2026 — the strongest single-segment comp at QSR in 8 years. Canada represents 35% of total QSR operating income. The catalyst was the May 2025 menu reformulation (espresso-based beverages, premium pastries, breakfast sandwiches at fast-food prices). If this pace sustains through 2026, Tim Hortons alone contributes $1.4B incremental annual revenue at 28% operating margin.
QSR acquired Carrols Restaurants ($1B, May 2025), the largest US Burger King franchisee with 1,022 locations. Management is now refranchising 600+ of these locations at $3M+ per restaurant vs. $2M acquisition cost — pure value creation. Net incremental EPS impact: $0.55-0.70 per share through 2027 from this single transaction. Wall Street consensus models only $0.30 — significantly underestimating the math.
📉 The 3 Real Bear Points
QSR carries $13.4B in long-term debt — D/E of 296%. This is the 3G Capital signature: aggressive leverage as a permanent feature, not a temporary state. The 2026-2028 maturity wall ($1.8B per year) refinances into 6%+ rates vs. the 4.7% blended current. Annual interest expense rises $100-130M through 2028 — material EPS drag even with Doyle's operational improvements.
Burger King US same-store sales were FLAT in Q1/2026 vs. McDonald's +2.4% and Wendy's +2.1%. The US BK brand has lost 200bps of US QSR-burger share since 2020. Doyle's brand-marketing reset (launched October 2025) is showing early signs but a full turnaround is a 3-4 year project. If US BK comps stay flat through 2027, the bull thesis on Doyle compounding compresses.
QSR trades at a forward P/E of 18× as of May 2026. Restaurant peers: McDonald's (24×), Yum Brands (23×), Chipotle (24×), Wingstop (78×). QSR sits at a discount to peers, but the discount already reflects the BK-US-underperformance reality. A clean re-rate to 22× requires Doyle to deliver 4-5%+ same-store sales for two consecutive years — not yet evidenced.
Valuation in Context
Restaurant Brands trades at a forward P/E of 18× and EV/EBITDA of 14× as of May 2026. Comparable restaurant peers: McDonald's (24×), Yum Brands (23×), Starbucks (24×), Chipotle (24×). QSR's discount reflects the BK-US-underperformance and the 3G-era leverage architecture. The bull case (Bank of America, Stifel) values QSR at $92-96 based on Doyle's Domino's playbook taking root + Carrols re-franchising math + Tim Hortons Canada turnaround. The bear case (Wells Fargo) at $77 assumes BK US stays flat-to-negative through 2027. Wall Street analyst targets range from $77 (Wells Fargo) to $96 (BofA), median $85 vs. current $80 — 7% upside before the 3.3% dividend. The combined dividend (3.3%) + buyback yield (~2%) total of 5.3% is attractive in a slow-growth scenario.
🗓️ Next 3 Catalyst Dates
- July 31, 2026: Q2/2026 earnings — Tim Hortons Canada same-store sales sustainability is the critical KPI
- October 2026: Q3/2026 earnings + Carrols re-franchising progress disclosure — first formal commentary on franchise sale economics
- February 2027: QSR Investor Day — Doyle's 2030 framework on system-wide AUV (Average Unit Volume) targets
💬 Daniel's Take
Restaurant Brands is the cleanest 'world-class operator buying time to compound' position I track. Patrick Doyle's Domino's playbook delivered a 49× return — and there is no a priori reason that playbook can't deliver 3-4× compound across BK, Tim Hortons, Popeyes, and Firehouse simultaneously. Ackman's 12-year unbroken hold + Doyle's zero-sell pattern + Tim Hortons Canada's first 5%+ comp in 8 years is the coordinated bullish setup most active investors are not yet weighting properly. What I do NOT love at $80 is the 3G-era leverage — a 2027 US recession would compress QSR sharply. I hold QSR at 2% of my portfolio with active-add zone below $70 (forward P/E 16, post-recession-stress entry). The 3.3% dividend pays you while Doyle works.
Sources (3)
Disclaimer: This article is not investment advice. Investing in stocks carries risks, including total loss.
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