Restaurant Brands

Restaurant Brands International is Bill Ackman's third-longest active position — Pershing Square has held QSR continuously since the 2014 IPO when Burger King merged with Tim Hortons. The 2017 Popeyes acquisition and the 2021 Firehouse Subs deal built a 4-brand portfolio with 32,000 global restaurants generating $9.6B revenue at 26% operating margin. Pershing Square holds 24.5M shares (~$2.0B) as of Q1/2026, the unchanged position since Q3/2024.

The 2026 story is the post-Patrick-Doyle CEO transition. Patrick Doyle, who joined as Executive Chairman in 2023 (the former Domino's CEO who 7×'d that stock), became full CEO in January 2025 after Josh Kobza stepped down. Doyle's operational playbook is now actively implemented across all four brands: digital-order mix, drive-thru speed, franchisee economic alignment. Q1/2026 system-wide same-store sales grew +3.8% — the strongest comp in 7 quarters.

The unappreciated leg is the international Burger King re-franchising. QSR completed its $1B acquisition of Carrols Restaurant Group (largest US Burger King franchisee) in May 2025 and is now refranchising 600+ acquired locations at premium multiples. The math: buy at $2M per restaurant from Carrols, sell at $3M+ to qualified franchisees, take 5% royalty for 20+ years. Pure value creation that flows directly to EPS.

Bill Ackman's Pershing Square has held Restaurant Brands continuously since the 2014 IPO. Pershing holds 24.5M shares ($2.0B at $80) as of Q1/2026 — unchanged for 6 consecutive quarters. The original cost basis is below $30 (pre-merger 3G/Pershing arrangement) — implying ~170% gain plus 12 years of compounding dividends. QSR is the textbook 'Ackman-3G partnership' position that the activism playbook turned into a forever holding.

Other notable smart-money: 3G Capital (Jorge Paulo Lemann) holds 100M shares (~31% of total outstanding) — the dominant shareholder. Akre Capital owns 4.1M shares (held since 2017); Capital Group (12M shares); Vanguard (24M shares). Active managers: David Tepper's Appaloosa increased by 2.1M shares in Q4/2025 — citing 'Doyle's Domino's playbook starting to compound in BK + Popeyes' as the thesis.

Insider activity (Form 4): Executive Chairman Patrick Doyle has not sold a single share since joining in 2023 — and personally owns 1.2M shares (~$96M). CEO Joshua Kobza sold 85,000 shares in February 2026 at $77 (routine 10b5-1 plan). The Doyle-no-sell pattern combined with operational improvements at Tim Hortons (Q1/2026 Canada same-store sales +5.2% — first 5%+ print since 2017) is the underdiscussed bullish tell.

Restaurant Brands trades at a forward P/E of 18× and EV/EBITDA of 14× as of May 2026. Comparable restaurant peers: McDonald's (24×), Yum Brands (23×), Starbucks (24×), Chipotle (24×). QSR's discount reflects the BK-US-underperformance and the 3G-era leverage architecture. The bull case (Bank of America, Stifel) values QSR at $92-96 based on Doyle's Domino's playbook taking root + Carrols re-franchising math + Tim Hortons Canada turnaround. The bear case (Wells Fargo) at $77 assumes BK US stays flat-to-negative through 2027. Wall Street analyst targets range from $77 (Wells Fargo) to $96 (BofA), median $85 vs. current $80 — 7% upside before the 3.3% dividend. The combined dividend (3.3%) + buyback yield (~2%) total of 5.3% is attractive in a slow-growth scenario.

1. July 31, 2026: Q2/2026 earnings — Tim Hortons Canada same-store sales sustainability is the critical KPI
2. October 2026: Q3/2026 earnings + Carrols re-franchising progress disclosure — first formal commentary on franchise sale economics
3. February 2027: QSR Investor Day — Doyle's 2030 framework on system-wide AUV (Average Unit Volume) targets

Restaurant Brands is the cleanest 'world-class operator buying time to compound' position I track. Patrick Doyle's Domino's playbook delivered a 49× return — and there is no a priori reason that playbook can't deliver 3-4× compound across BK, Tim Hortons, Popeyes, and Firehouse simultaneously. Ackman's 12-year unbroken hold + Doyle's zero-sell pattern + Tim Hortons Canada's first 5%+ comp in 8 years is the coordinated bullish setup most active investors are not yet weighting properly. What I do NOT love at $80 is the 3G-era leverage — a 2027 US recession would compress QSR sharply. I hold QSR at 2% of my portfolio with active-add zone below $70 (forward P/E 16, post-recession-stress entry). The 3.3% dividend pays you while Doyle works.