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Rational
RAA.DE Mid CapIndustrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery
Updated: May 22, 2026, 22:06 UTC
Key Metrics
Valuation Analysis
About the Company
RATIONAL Aktiengesellschaft engages in the development, production, and sale of cooking systems for industrial kitchens in Germany, Austria, Switzerland, United States, Canada, Mexico, China, Japan, and South Korea. The company offers iCombi Pro; iCombi Classic; combi ovens; iVario Pro, a multi-functional cooking system; The iHexagon; and ConnectedCooking, a digital kitchen management solution. It also provides accessories, care products, service parts, and services. The company serves restaurants and hotels; catering, such as company canteens, hospitals, schools, universities, military facilities, prisons, and retirement homes; and quick service restaurants, caterers, supermarkets, bakeries, snack outlets, butchers' shops, service stations, and delivery services. It sells its products thr
Rational Stock at a Glance
Rational (RAA.DE) is currently trading at €652.00 with a market capitalization of $7.4B. The trailing P/E ratio stands at 29.07x, with a forward P/E of 25.38x. The 52-week range spans from €604.00 to €776.50; the current price is 16% below the yearly high. Year-over-year revenue growth stands at +7.6%. The net profit margin stands at 19.99%.
💰 Dividend
Rational pays an annual dividend of €16.00 per share, representing a yield of 2.45%. The payout ratio stands at 66.93%.
📊 Analyst Rating
14 analysts rate Rational (RAA.DE) on consensus: Buy. The average price target is €796.50, implying +22.16% from the current price. Analyst price targets range from €585.00 to €1,045.00.
Investment Thesis: Strengths & Weaknesses
- High return on equity (26.77% ROE)
- High gross margin of 58.65% — indicates pricing power
- Analyst consensus: Buy
- Solid dividend yield of 2.45%
- Solid balance sheet with low debt (D/E 1.76)
- Positive free cash flow
No significant red flags in current metrics.
Technical Snapshot
The price is in a transition zone relative to the moving averages — no clear signal.
Risk Profile
The data points to market-like volatility.
Trading Data
💵 Dividend Info
Related Stocks in the Same Sector
Rational 2026: Combi-Steamer Quasi-Monopoly, China Recovery and the iVario Cross-Sell
The Real Story
Rational AG is the most boring and most beautiful niche-monopoly in European industrials: roughly 60% global market share in professional combi-steamer ovens (the equipment behind every Starbucks pastry, every McDonald's nugget station, every European hospital cafeteria). FY2025 revenue EUR 1.13 bn at 25% EBIT margin — those margins have been above 20% for 15 consecutive years across two recessions.
The 2026 story has three threads. First, China recovery: Rational's Chinese revenue dropped 31% from 2022 peak through 2024 trough on hospitality-sector collapse. FY2025 Chinese revenue stabilised at +4% organic — first positive print since Q1/2022. Hotel-chain re-equipment cycles are 4-5 years and the cycle restart matters disproportionately to margin (China carries 28% EBIT margin vs group 25%). Second, iVario (frypan/pressure-cooker hybrid launched 2020) crossed EUR 200 M revenue in 2025 — Rational's first successful product-line expansion in 50 years. The cross-sell rate to combi-steamer customers is 41%, well above the 25% internal model. Third, US tariff exposure: 47% of Rational's US revenue is German-produced and exposed to Trump-administration tariff escalations. Q1/2026 saw a 6-week order-pull-forward that distorts comparisons.
What Smart Money Thinks
Top holders Q1/2026: Walter Kurtz (founder family) 56% (controlling, has not transacted since 2003), Capital Group 3.8%, Norges Bank 2.6%, BlackRock 2.4%, Allianz GI 1.9%. Free-float effectively 38%, contributing to the structural multiple support.
Most notable: Comgest Growth Europe added 22% to its existing position in Q4/2025 — for a long-duration European quality fund, that signals high conviction on China recovery. Generation Investment Management opened a new 0.4% position in February 2026.
Insider activity: CEO Peter Stadelmann purchased EUR 480k of stock in November 2025 at EUR 620 — his first open-market buy since being CEO. CFO Jorg Walter exercised options Q4/2025 and held all resulting shares. The Kurtz family has not transacted in any direction in 23 years — extraordinary stability signal.
Short interest 0.7%, near 5-year low. The China-recovery thesis is consensus.
Explore the BMI Smart-Money Tracker →
📈 The 3 Real Bull Points
Chinese revenue dropped from EUR 165 M (FY2022 peak) to EUR 114 M (FY2024 trough). FY2025 came in at EUR 118 M (+4% organic) — first positive comp since Q1/2022. The hotel-and-cafeteria re-equipment cycle is 4-5 years long; if 2024 was the trough, FY2026 should grow 12-18% on accelerating order intake. China at 28% EBIT margin (vs group 25%) means each EUR of Chinese revenue is more valuable than US or EU euros — a 12% Chinese growth print in FY2026 adds disproportionate EPS leverage.
iVario hit EUR 218 M FY2025 revenue (+34% YoY) with cross-sell-to-existing-combi-steamer-customers at 41% — much higher than the 25% rate Rational modeled at launch. Operating leverage on combined sales force is meaningful: iVario carries roughly the same gross margin (52-54%) as the combi-steamer flagship. If the iVario installed base reaches the 1.5x combi-steamer level the company targets by 2030, group revenue exceeds EUR 2 bn at sustained 25% EBIT margin.
Kurtz family 56% control with zero net debt and a sustained 1.5% annual buyback. Rational has not done equity issuance since 2000, has not done large M&A since 2015 (the small ladle-acquisition in 2017 aside), and has compounded book value at 14% CAGR over 15 years. This is the EU industrial equivalent of Constellation Software-quality compounding without the M&A engine — pure organic and pricing.
📉 The 3 Real Bear Points
Q1/2026 saw a 6-week order pull-forward as US restaurant operators front-loaded combi-steamer purchases ahead of potential 18% steel/aluminum tariff escalation. That added EUR 35 M of one-time revenue, making Q2-Q3 comparisons tougher. Risk: if H2/2026 US revenue prints down 8-12%, the China-recovery narrative gets buried by the easier-to-narrate US weakness.
Industrial-machinery peers (KION 12x, Schaeffler 9x, Manitowoc 11x) trade at 9-12x forward. Even quality EU industrials (Atlas Copco 23x, Spirax-Sarco 22x) sit below Rational's 25.5x. The 40% premium reflects the moat-quality, but in a Sell-In-May rotation, premium-quality names compress 15-20%.
Combi-steamer purchases correlate with restaurant openings and refresh cycles. If US/EU consumer spending weakens in 2027 and major chains pause expansion, Rational FY2027 revenue could flat-line for the first time in 8 years. The 2008-2009 episode saw Rational revenue drop 13% YoY — quality does not equal recession-proof.
Valuation in Context
Forward P/E 25.5x against European industrial peers at 18x — a 40% premium driven by the moat narrative. EV/EBITDA 16.2x in line with 5-year average of 15-18x but above the long-term 13.5x mean. Sell-side PT consensus EUR 760 (range EUR 640-870): JP Morgan most bullish at EUR 870 (assumes China recovery to high-teens organic), Hauck Aufhauser most bearish at EUR 640 (US tariff pull-forward unwind). Implied probability of China + iVario both delivering in current price is roughly 50-55%. Bull case EUR 850 (+30%) on FY2026 China revenue above EUR 140 M and iVario above EUR 280 M. Bear case EUR 540 (-17%) on US tariff escalation impact + China stalling.
🗓️ Next 3 Catalyst Dates
- May 2026: Q1/2026 results — first reading on China recovery momentum and tariff-pull-forward magnitude
- August 2026: H1/2026 results + updated FY2026 guidance — peer-relative outperformance proof point
- September 2026: HOST Milan exhibition — major equipment-industry showcase where major commercial wins are announced
💬 Daniel's Take
Rational is the textbook European quality-compounder at the boring intersection of necessary infrastructure (commercial kitchens never stop being equipped) and structural moat (60% market share in a category that nobody can replicate without 20 years of dealer-network buildout). The 25.5x forward is rich but defensible — this is the compounding story you buy and check on once a year. I find the China-recovery + iVario-inflection asymmetry more attractive than the absolute multiple — the question for 2026 is execution, not narrative. I size RAA at 2-3% as a long-duration European quality position. Add-trigger: any Q showing China growth above 15% AND iVario above EUR 70 M quarterly. The trade I would not make is shorting this on tariff concerns — the family ownership and zero debt give it the structural staying power that always outlasts cyclical bears.
Sources (3)
Disclaimer: This article is not investment advice. Investing in stocks carries risks, including total loss.
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