Raiffeisen Bank International
RBI.VI Large CapFinancial Services · Banks - Regional
Updated: May 20, 2026, 22:09 UTC
Key Metrics
Valuation Analysis
About the Company
Raiffeisen Bank International AG, together with its subsidiaries, offers banking services to corporate, retail, and institutional customers. The company provides cash management, investment and subsidized financing, eSpeedTrack, financing and sustainable solutions, electronic bank account management, reporting and payment, supply chain financing, payment acceptance, factoring solutions, export and trade finance, factoring, leveraged and acquisition financing, project and structured financing, real estate financing, leasing, digital banking, working capital, investment banking, investing, hedging, and investor services to its institutional clients and corporate customers in agri food and beverage, mobility, construction and building materials, healthcare and pharmaceuticals, infrastructure
Raiffeisen Bank International Stock at a Glance
Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI.VI) is currently trading at €46.10 with a market capitalization of $15.1B. The trailing P/E ratio stands at 14.87x, with a forward P/E of 7.2x. The 52-week range spans from €23.80 to €48.40; the current price is 4.8% below the yearly high. Year-over-year revenue growth stands at -6.3%. The net profit margin stands at 12.85%.
💰 Dividend
Raiffeisen Bank International pays an annual dividend of €1.60 per share, representing a yield of 3.47%.
📊 Analyst Rating
13 analysts rate Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI.VI) on consensus: Buy. The average price target is €42.78, implying -7.19% from the current price. Analyst price targets range from €22.40 to €54.30.
Investment Thesis: Strengths & Weaknesses
- Analyst consensus: Buy
- Currently flagged as undervalued
- Solid dividend yield of 3.47%
- –Revenue shrinking (-6.3% YoY)
Technical Snapshot
Price trades above both the 50- and 200-day moving averages, with 50d above 200d — a classic bullish setup (golden-cross alignment).
Risk Profile
The data points to market-like volatility.
Trading Data
💵 Dividend Info
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Raiffeisen Bank International 2026: Russia Discount, CEE Engine and the 7.2x Forward Trade
The Real Story
Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) is the only Western European bank that still meaningfully operates in Russia — and that single fact controls 100% of the share-price narrative. The Russian subsidiary AO Raiffeisenbank generated EUR 1.8 bn of pre-tax profit in 2024 and EUR 1.4 bn in 2025, representing roughly 50% of group earnings. Without Russia, RBI would trade at EUR 70-75 — the market keeps it at EUR 46 because nobody knows how the Russia stake gets resolved.
The non-Russia franchise is genuinely strong: leading retail bank in Romania, Czechia, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Croatia. CEE economies grow 2-4% real GDP versus 0.5-1.5% in the Eurozone, and RBI captures that growth through fee income (1.6x Eurozone-peer ratio) and loan margins that are 70-100 bps wider than German peers. CET1 capital ratio at 17.8% is among the highest in European banking — driven partly by the trapped Russian capital that RBI cannot repatriate.
The 2026 catalyst is the ECB and Austrian regulator decision on whether RBI must accelerate its Russia exit (current plan: gradual run-off, complete by 2027). If forced sale at distressed multiple, RBI takes a EUR 3-5 bn write-down. If allowed to continue gradual exit through structured sale to a sanctioned-compliant buyer, the residual value crystallises and the stock rerates 40-60%.
What Smart Money Thinks
Top holders Q1/2026: Raiffeisen Zentralbank Holding (cooperative parent) 58.8% — RBI is effectively controlled by the Austrian Raiffeisen cooperative network, not free-float owned. BlackRock 2.3%, Norges Bank 1.8%, Lansdowne Partners 1.6% (notable: Lansdowne disclosed in February 2026, classic value play).
Insider activity: CEO Johann Strobl bought EUR 280k of stock in October 2025 at EUR 38 (now EUR 46.14, +21%) — his first open-market buy as CEO. Board chair Erwin Hameseder converted 100% of the 2025 board fees into shares. The Raiffeisen Zentralbank parent has not added or sold, signalling commitment to the structural stake.
What is unusual: an Austrian state-pension fund (APK) increased its position by 35% in March 2026 — Austrian institutional money signalling that the regulatory pathway likely favours RBI. Short interest at 0.6%, exceptionally low for a bank with this much controversy.
Explore the BMI Smart-Money Tracker →
📈 The 3 Real Bull Points
Forward 2026 P/E of 7.2x is among the cheapest in European banking. The discount to median (9.5x) is roughly 24%. If Russia exit completes without forced fire-sale and CEE earnings hold at 2025 levels, fair-value re-rating to even 8.5x implies EUR 60+ — a 30% upside from EUR 46.14. The 3.5% dividend pays you to wait through resolution.
Excluding Russia, RBI's CEE business grew net interest income 8.2% YoY in 2025 with non-performing-loan ratio at 1.9%. Romania, Czechia, Hungary deposits are growing 6-9% annually as wage convergence brings the region toward EU averages. ECB rate cuts hurt margin but boost loan demand — net effect neutral to mildly positive at current trajectory.
Once Russia is resolved (or formally compartmentalised), RBI has the highest capital surplus in European banking. Even at conservative dividend payout, CET1 above 16% would let the board authorise EUR 1-1.5 bn of buybacks — a 7-10% capital return on top of dividend, transformational for the stock.
📉 The 3 Real Bear Points
If the US Treasury extends OFAC pressure on AO Raiffeisenbank (already restricted from USD clearing partially) and forces a fire-sale to a sanctioned-compliant Russian buyer, the residual valuation could be EUR 0.3-0.5 of book — a EUR 3-5 bn write-down. That would wipe roughly 25% of RBI's tangible book equity in one print.
Hungarian PM Orban introduced a 13% sector-specific bank windfall tax in 2024, extended through 2026. RBI Hungary contributes ~9% of group profit. Any further escalation (rumours of a 20% rate for 2027) would hit EPS by 3-4% directly.
The ECB has signalled it may apply Pillar 2 capital surcharges to banks with sanctions-compliance complexity. RBI is the most exposed European bank to this. A 100-150 bps CET1 add-on (currently CET1 17.8%, regulatory minimum 11.4%) would still leave buffer but would push out any buyback by 18-24 months.
Valuation in Context
Forward P/E 7.2x vs European bank median 9.5x and CEE-specialist peer median 8.6x (Erste Group at 8.0x, Komercni Banka at 9.2x). Price-to-Tangible-Book at 0.61x — a 39% discount to book value, the steepest in European listed banks. Goldman Sachs target EUR 55 (assumes gradual Russia exit), Morgan Stanley EUR 58 (with EUR 800 M buyback assumed for 2027), Berenberg EUR 38 (forced-sale base case). The implied probability of a forced fire-sale baked into current price is roughly 55-60% — a high pessimism reading. Bull case EUR 75 if Russia gets compartmentalised and CEE growth continues. Bear case EUR 32 if forced sale plus Hungary escalation.
🗓️ Next 3 Catalyst Dates
- Q3 2026: ECB/FMA decision on AO Raiffeisenbank wind-down timeline acceleration
- November 2026: Q3/2026 earnings — first quarter showing 2026 Russia-stake provisioning approach
- Q1 2027: Hungarian bank-tax legislative cycle — 2027 rate clarity
💬 Daniel's Take
Raiffeisen Bank International is the European bank trade for investors who can stomach a binary regulatory outcome. The asymmetry is wild: 60% upside if Russia gets resolved through compartmentalisation, 30% downside if forced fire-sale. I find the smart-money signal (Lansdowne building a position, Austrian state pension adding) more credible than the German/Swiss bank-analyst chorus telling everyone to avoid it. The 3.5% dividend covers the carrying cost while you wait. I size RBI as a 1.5-2.5% position because of the binary risk — not the place to be overweight if you cannot tolerate a 30% one-day drop on a Treasury press release. Trigger to add: ECB confirms gradual exit pathway with no forced acceleration.
Disclaimer: This article is not investment advice. Investing in stocks carries risks, including total loss.
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