Partners Group

Partners Group is the largest independent alternative-asset manager headquartered in continental Europe, with approximately 150 billion USD in assets under management split across private equity (55%), private debt (18%), private real estate (15%) and private infrastructure (12%). The 2024-2025 sentiment shift was brutal for the alternatives sector: rising rates compressed private-market valuations, fundraising slowed materially as LPs hit allocation caps, and exit volumes (IPOs plus M&A) collapsed to 15-year lows. Partners Group's share price fell roughly 40% from the late-2021 peak even though management fees (the predictable revenue stream) continued to grow at 10-13%. The 2026 story is the operating-leverage inflection. Performance fees — effectively zero through 2024-2025 due to the exit drought — have started to recover as the Q1-2026 IPO window reopened and several large secondary transactions cleared. Management has guided FY2026 underlying EBIT growth of 13-18% on management-fee revenue alone, with performance fees as embedded upside. The dividend of CHF 41 per share was raised again to CHF 43 for FY2025 (paid May 2026), marking the 18th consecutive increase — a rare income compounder in alternatives.

Partners Group attracts a distinctly different smart-money base than US-listed alternatives peers Blackstone, KKR, and Apollo. European long-only managers like Pictet, Lombard Odier, and J. Stern & Co. have been multi-year holders. UK-based quality compounder Fundsmith added a position in 2024 at depressed prices. The Wietlisbach, Erni, and Strehler founding families collectively retain roughly 28% of shares through holding structures, providing long-term ownership stability and explicit alignment with minority shareholders. Activist absence is conspicuous but expected given the family lock and Swiss governance rules. The bear case from short-biased managers focuses on the structural compression of management fees as institutional LPs negotiate harder on basis points and as ETF/index providers begin to compete on private-market beta exposure.

Partners Group trades at 18.5× forward earnings, well below the 10-year average of 23× and a substantial discount to US peers Blackstone (28×) and KKR (24×). The 3.9% dividend yield is the highest in 12 years outside of the 2008 financial-crisis trough. Free-cash-flow yield is roughly 6%, comfortably covering the dividend with capacity for opportunistic buybacks. Bull case (Performance fees normalize, evergreen AUM doubles, fundraising recovers): CHF 1450. Base case (Steady management-fee growth, modest performance fee recovery): CHF 1150. Bear case (Sustained fundraising weakness, LP fee compression, talent walks): CHF 780.

1. August 2026: H1/2026 results — first half with reopened IPO window; watch performance-fee recovery and evergreen-AUM growth.
2. November 2026: Capital Markets Update — expected mid-term guidance refresh for 2027-2029 fundraising targets and operating-margin trajectory.
3. March 2027: FY2026 results plus dividend proposal — expected 19th consecutive annual increase, signaling continued capital-return discipline.

Partners Group is one of the cleanest ways to own the long-term growth of private markets from a European public-market perspective. The thesis is simple: alternatives are still significantly under-allocated in European pensions and insurance versus US peers, the supply of capital should grow for at least another decade, and Partners has the brand, track record, and evergreen-product infrastructure to capture that flow. I hold a 2.5% portfolio position. Where I'd be cautious: the share price tracks public-equity multiples more than it should, so any sustained drawdown in equities will hit even though management fees keep growing. Use weakness to add. Avoid chasing strength — the multi-year compounding works only if you maintain the cost basis through cycles.