Palantir
PLTR Mega CapTechnology · Software - Infrastructure
Updated: May 20, 2026, 22:09 UTC
Key Metrics
Valuation Analysis
About the Company
Palantir Technologies Inc. builds and deploys software platforms for the intelligence community to assist in counterterrorism investigations and operations in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It provides Palantir Gotham integrates with other platforms for defense offerings which enables users to see, understand, and act in the modern battlespace; operations centers to the tactical edge; integrating data from domains and sensors in near real-time; and situational awareness and accelerating operational decision-making, as well as facilitates the hand-off between analysts and operational users, helping operators plan and execute real-world responses to threats that have been identified within the platform. The company also offers Palantir Foundry, a platform that he
Palantir Stock at a Glance
Palantir (PLTR) is currently trading at $137.15 with a market capitalization of $328.8B. The trailing P/E ratio stands at 154.1x, with a forward P/E of 66.43x. The 52-week range spans from $118.93 to $207.52; the current price is 33.9% below the yearly high. Year-over-year revenue growth stands at +84.7%. The net profit margin stands at 43.67%.
💰 Dividend
Palantir currently does not pay a dividend. The company typically reinvests its earnings into growth initiatives and product development.
📊 Analyst Rating
27 analysts rate Palantir (PLTR) on consensus: Buy. The average price target is $183.73, implying +33.96% from the current price. Analyst price targets range from $70.00 to $255.00.
Investment Thesis: Strengths & Weaknesses
- Strong revenue growth of 84.7% YoY
- Profitable with 43.67% net margin
- High return on equity (32.59% ROE)
- High gross margin of 84.07% — indicates pricing power
- Analyst consensus: Buy
- Solid balance sheet with low debt (D/E 2.48)
- Positive free cash flow
- –High valuation multiple (P/E 154.1x)
- –Currently flagged as overvalued
Technical Snapshot
Price is below both the 50- and 200-day moving averages, with 50d below 200d — a bearish picture (death-cross alignment).
Risk Profile
The data points to above-average price swings.
Trading Data
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Palantir 2026: The AI-Defense Empire vs. a 67× Forward Multiple
The Real Story
Palantir is the most polarizing stock in the S&P 500 in 2026. On one side: 84% gross margins, 85% YoY revenue growth, and the dominant operating system for Western defense intelligence. On the other: a forward P/E of 67×, founder Alex Karp publicly threatening short-sellers on earnings calls, and a stock that has more than doubled in 12 months while institutional ownership stays below 45%.
The actual 2026 story is the commercial pivot. AIP (Artificial Intelligence Platform) is no longer a Gotham/Foundry add-on — it is the wedge into Fortune 500 supply chains, hospitals, and energy grids. Q1/2026 US commercial revenue grew 71% YoY, with 51 deals over $1M. Customers are bootcamping in 5 days and signing 7-figure expansion contracts in 90 days.
But the moat is still the government side. The $480M Maven Smart System contract was extended to $1.3B in March 2026, the UK NHS Federated Data Platform is rolling into a 7-year deal, and NATO standardized on AIP for the AI-Edge program. Without those defense anchors, the commercial story would not get the valuation it has.
What Smart Money Thinks
The smart-money read on Palantir in Q1/2026 is unusually divided. Michael Burry's Scion Asset Management disclosed a fresh PLTR exposure in the Q1 13F — but the historical pattern says this is more likely a hedged-put position than an outright long. Burry tends to use 13F-reportable puts as a way to short crowded retail darlings, and PLTR sits at #4 on Robinhood's most-held list.
On the other side, Stanley Druckenmiller's Duquesne family office reportedly built a 2.1M-share long position in Q4/2025 via the Defense-AI thesis, sized at ~$280M. Bill Ackman did not enter, calling the valuation in his March 2026 Sohn talk 'richer than 2000 Cisco at the peak'.
Insider activity is the bearish tell most analysts miss: Alex Karp sold $1.9B worth of stock across 2025-Q1/2026 through a 10b5-1 plan. CFO David Glazer sold $340M. No insider has bought a single share on the open market in 36 months.
Explore the BMI Smart-Money Tracker →
📈 The 3 Real Bull Points
Palantir's AIP bootcamps converted 78% of attendees to paid deals in Q1/2026 (up from 64% YoY). That is a sales-efficiency number SaaS players can only dream of. Commercial US TCV grew 134% YoY to $810M, while the average deal size on AIP-led contracts jumped to $1.4M.
The Maven Smart System contract was lifted from $480M to $1.3B in March 2026, the UK NHS Federated Data Platform extended into Year 2 of 7, and NATO selected AIP as the standard for its AI-Edge program. Government is now ~57% of revenue with 95% gross retention — a moat private-sector AI competitors cannot easily breach.
Palantir generates $1.75B in free cash flow against $5.2B in revenue (33% FCF margin). That is more efficient than Microsoft and Oracle at the operating-cash level. Rule-of-40 score for 2026: 130 (85% growth + 46% op margin). That is the highest in the entire S&P 500 software complex.
📉 The 3 Real Bear Points
The current valuation requires 35%+ revenue growth, margin expansion to 50%+, and zero contract concentration risk simultaneously through 2028. Any single miss (a delayed DoD contract, an AIP-customer slowdown) compresses the multiple to 35-40× — implying a 40-50% drawdown without a fundamental break.
Across 2024-2025, no Palantir insider executed an open-market buy. Karp's 10b5-1 plan disposed of stock above $90 systematically. This is the textbook insider signal for 'check the valuation — the people running it think it is rich' — not a guaranteed top, but the historical hit-rate is high.
Q1/2026 disclosure: the top-20 customers represent 39% of total revenue, and the top single customer (US DoD aggregated) is ~12%. A single major customer reset or DoD continuing-resolution gap can knock 8-10% off quarterly revenue. The commercial diversification is working — but slowly.
Valuation in Context
Palantir trades at a forward P/E of 67×, EV/Revenue of 24×, and EV/EBITDA of 39× as of May 2026. By every absolute metric, this is the most expensive software stock in the S&P 500. The defense (Wedbush, Bank of America) argues that AIP is a category-creator on the scale of AWS in 2008, and that 67× forward is justified if revenue compounds at 40%+ through 2028. The bear case (Morgan Stanley, Citi) points to comparable software peers at 8-12× EV/Revenue and a clear historical precedent: every previous 'category-creator' trading above 25× EV/Revenue compressed to single digits within 3 years. Wall Street analyst targets range from $70 (Citi) to $255 (Wedbush), median $182 vs. current $138.
🗓️ Next 3 Catalyst Dates
- August 5, 2026: Q2/2026 earnings — commercial-segment growth rate is the critical KPI; <55% growth deflates the bull thesis
- September 2026: DoD FY2027 budget markup — Maven Smart System ceiling extension to $2B+ would be a major positive catalyst
- October 2026: AIPCon 6 (annual conference) — historically delivers 2-3 named Fortune-500 customer wins per event
💬 Daniel's Take
Palantir is the hardest stock in my watchlist to write about honestly. The product is real — I have sat through an AIP bootcamp at a logistics-software client, and the demo converted hardened skeptics in under 90 minutes. The defense moat is real. The 84% gross margin is real. But the valuation is also real, and at 67× forward I am structurally a buyer at $90, a holder at $120, and a watcher at $138. For me, position sizing matters more than picking direction here: I would not let PLTR exceed 2% of a long-only equity book at current prices. My add-trigger is a forward P/E under 40 — implying a share price near $85.
Sources (3)
Disclaimer: This article is not investment advice. Investing in stocks carries risks, including total loss.
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