Occidental Petroleum

Occidental Petroleum is Warren Buffett's largest energy bet and his fifth-largest position overall. Berkshire Hathaway now owns 28.4% of OXY common stock (255M shares, ~$13.5B) — plus another $10B in preferred stock paying 8% annual dividends — making OXY the single Berkshire position where Buffett has accumulated most aggressively since 2022. Buffett added in every quarter of 2025 (along with AON), bringing total ownership above the 25% threshold that historically required regulatory disclosure.

The 2026 story is the post-CrownRock integration plus the dual oil-and-carbon strategy. OXY closed the $12B CrownRock acquisition in August 2024, adding 170,000 barrels per day of Permian Basin production at the lowest break-even cost in US shale ($38/barrel). Q1/2026 Permian production hit 818,000 BOE/day at $42/barrel cash operating cost. With WTI averaging $72 through Q1/2026, OXY generates $30+ in free cash flow per barrel — and the Permian has 12-15 years of high-quality drilling inventory.

The unappreciated leg is the carbon-capture-and-storage (CCS) opportunity. OXY's STRATOS direct-air-capture facility went operational in Q3/2025, generating 500K tons/year of carbon-removal credits at $250-300/ton. The IRA Section 45Q tax credit and corporate carbon-credit demand could make 1PointFive (OXY's CCS subsidiary) a $5-8B EBITDA business by 2030 — entirely off Wall Street's radar today.

Berkshire Hathaway built the OXY position through 2022-2025 in the most aggressive accumulation pattern Buffett has shown since AAPL (2016-2018). Berkshire now holds 255M common shares (~$13.5B at $53) plus $10B in 8% preferred stock plus warrants to purchase 83.9M additional shares at $59.62. Combined ownership economics: ~31% of OXY economic stake when fully exercised. Buffett has added in 12 of the last 15 quarters with zero trims.

Other notable holders: Capital Group (40M shares); Vanguard (38M); BlackRock (35M). Active manager adds: Stanley Druckenmiller's Duquesne added 4.8M shares in Q1/2026 at $52 — citing OXY's 'cleanest energy long' in his February 2026 investor letter. Notable Q1/2026 entry: David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital initiated a 2.1M-share position at average $54, his first energy long since 2018.

Insider activity (Form 4): CEO Vicki Hollub has not sold a single share in 18 months — extraordinary for a sitting public-company CEO. CFO Sunil Mathew bought 12,000 shares in March 2026 at $50.80 — his first open-market purchase in 3 years. Two bullish insider tells inside 12 months, combined with Berkshire's relentless accumulation pattern.

Occidental Petroleum trades at a forward P/E of 14.4× and EV/EBITDA of 6.5× as of May 2026. Comparable US E&P peers: ConocoPhillips (12× P/E, 5.8× EV/EBITDA), EOG Resources (10× P/E, 5.5× EV/EBITDA), Diamondback Energy (11× P/E, 6× EV/EBITDA), Pioneer (was acquired by Exxon at 9× EV/EBITDA in 2024). OXY trades at a modest premium reflecting Permian inventory depth + 1PointFive optionality. The bull case (Bank of America, JP Morgan) values OXY at $72-75 based on WTI $72 sustained + CCS optionality + buyback acceleration. The bear case (Citi) at $55 assumes WTI rolls to $60. Wall Street analyst targets range from $55 (Citi) to $75 (BofA), median $64 vs. current $53 — 21% upside before the 2.0% dividend.

1. July 30, 2026: Q2/2026 earnings — Permian production growth + CrownRock integration synergies disclosure
2. Q3 2026: WTI oil price trajectory + OPEC+ September meeting — likely binary signal for OXY's near-term EPS
3. November 2026: 1PointFive Project Bison 2 sanction announcement — second STRATOS-class CCS facility would validate CCS thesis at scale

OXY is the energy position where I lean on Buffett's framework most heavily. The Berkshire accumulation pattern is the cleanest non-verbal signal in the entire US energy sector — added in 12 of 15 quarters, zero trims, CEO Hollub zero sells. The 1PointFive CCS optionality is the unmodeled kicker that nobody on the sell-side is pricing. What you have to accept: WTI cyclicality means a 30% drawdown is structurally available in any 12-month window. I hold OXY at 4% of my portfolio with active-add zone below $48 — that level historically marked the WTI-$55 floor where Berkshire was last accumulating aggressively. The 1PointFive thesis matters most if you can hold through cycles — and that requires sizing this as a 4-5% position, not a 10% one.