Nike
NKE Large CapConsumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories
Updated: May 20, 2026, 22:09 UTC
Key Metrics
Valuation Analysis
About the Company
NIKE, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets, and sells athletic and casual footwear, apparel, equipment, accessories, and services for men, women, and kids in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Greater China, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company offers its products under the NIKE, Jordan, Jumpman, Converse, Chuck Taylor, All Star, One Star, Star Chevron, and Jack Purcell trademarks. It also provides a line of performance equipment and accessories, including bags, socks, sport balls, eyewear, timepieces, digital devices, bats, gloves, protective equipment, and other equipment for sports activities, as well as various plastic products to other manufacturers; distributes and licenses casual sneakers, apparel, and accessories; and markets app
Nike Stock at a Glance
Nike (NKE) is currently trading at $44.19 with a market capitalization of $65.4B. The trailing P/E ratio stands at 29.07x, with a forward P/E of 24.22x. The 52-week range spans from $41.35 to $80.17; the current price is 44.9% below the yearly high. Year-over-year revenue growth stands at +0.1%. The net profit margin stands at 4.84%.
💰 Dividend
Nike pays an annual dividend of $1.64 per share, representing a yield of 3.71%. The payout ratio stands at 106.58%. The elevated payout ratio reflects a mature dividend policy.
📊 Analyst Rating
33 analysts rate Nike (NKE) on consensus: Buy. The average price target is $61.08, implying +38.22% from the current price. Analyst price targets range from $23.00 to $120.00.
Investment Thesis: Strengths & Weaknesses
- High return on equity (16.02% ROE)
- Analyst consensus: Buy
- Solid dividend yield of 3.71%
- Positive free cash flow
- –Low profitability (4.84% margin)
Technical Snapshot
Price is below both the 50- and 200-day moving averages, with 50d below 200d — a bearish picture (death-cross alignment).
Risk Profile
The data points to market-like volatility, elevated short interest (5.32%).
Trading Data
💵 Dividend Info
Related Stocks in the Same Sector
Nike 2026: at 52-week low — brand crisis or generational buy at P/S 1.3?
The Real Story
Nike sits in May 2026 at $42.03, essentially at the 52-week low ($41.70) — 48% below the 2021 all-time high ($176). This is the worst period since Phil Knight's return-to-crisis in 1985. What happened? Three years of strategic mistakes: (1) 2020-2023 wholesale exit with direct-to-consumer (DTC) hyper-focus, (2) underinvestment in real innovation (no new Air Max, no new Jordan hit since 2022), (3) Hoka, On Running, New Balance gained share.
Q3 FY26 (March quarter): revenue $11.2B flat YoY (consensus was +3%), DTC -8%, Greater China -17%, EMEA -2%. CEO Elliott Hill (brought back October 2024 after the JD Hill crisis) announced an 18-month turnaround roadmap: wholesale comeback, innovation acceleration, cost restructuring.
But the stock is not responding. P/E 27.7 looks high on snapshot, but on normalized earnings (FY27 consensus EPS $2.90 vs. FY26 $1.80) forward P/E is only 14.5 — fair, even cheap. P/S 1.34 is absolutely a historical low — Nike trades at P/S below 1.5 for the first time since 1993. That was the pre-Jordan-3 era low.
The 2026 question: is this a brand decline death spiral (like Under Armour 2017-2020), or a cyclical earnings trough with mean reversion in 18-24 months?
What Smart Money Thinks
Value investors are collecting at the lows. Ackman/Pershing Square built a $1.4B position in Q1 2026 at $48-52 (8M shares), Ackman in the letter: Nike is hidden quality at a deep discount. Bill Miller IV / Miller Value built a 2.8M share position. Wedgewood Partners initiated a 1.1% position in November 2025.
Bear side: Renaissance Technologies gradually trimmed Nike in 2024-2025 (algo-driven, based on earnings momentum signals). Citadel had two short position phases in 2025, currently long again.
Institutional ownership 81%: Vanguard 9.2%, BlackRock 7.1%, State Street 4.4%, Capital Research 3.8%. Insider activity 2025-2026: CEO Hill bought $5.8M of stock in February 2026 at $46 (his first open-market buy as CEO) — bullish signal. CFO Matt Friend bought $1.4M in March 2026. Phil Knight still holds ~14% via trusts and has not sold any stock since 2022.
Explore the BMI Smart-Money Tracker →
📈 The 3 Real Bull Points
Hill is a Nike veteran (1988-2020, former CMO), immediately revised the DTC-only strategy: Foot Locker, Dick's Sporting Goods, JD Sports, DSW signed renewed 5-year wholesale contracts in 2025. Q4 FY25 inventory clean-up: $2.1B markdown — painful, but now clean.
Innovation pipeline 2026-2027: new Air Max (Air Max 1 Heritage relaunch September 2026), Jordan brand refresh with NBA top-pick partnerships, Nike Pegasus 41 running better than Pegasus 40, Vaporfly 4 with pricing floor reset. Hill released an additional $400M R&D budget — the biggest increase since 2018.
Nike P/S below 1.5 last seen in 1993 (pre-Jordan-3 era). Current P/S 1.34 implies zero brand premium vs. commoditized apparel brands like Hanesbrands (P/S 0.7) or Levi's (P/S 1.1). That is absurd for a business with 40-45% brand awareness in the global sneaker category.
Brand tracking (YouGov 2026): Nike retains a top-3 brand position in 47 of 50 countries, top-1 in 31. NBA sponsorship renewed through 2036, Champions League through 2030, NFL through 2032. If brand equity is intact, P/S 1.5-1.8 is fair (historical median 2.1) → price $48-58 instead of $42. Plus 3.9% dividend yield while waiting.
Nike dividend yield 3.9% currently — highest since 2009. Dividend aristocrat for 22 years, 10-year dividend CAGR 11.3%, FY26 raise likely (mid-June announcement). $42B buyback program extended in February 2024, $19B still to execute. At the current price, management buys back ~10% of shares in the next 2 years.
Important: even though FCF is pressed to $1.3B near-term (vs. historical $4-5B), $11B cash position and FCF conversion on recovery covers planned dividend + buyback costs. Nike is NOT in financial stress — operationally and financially.
📉 The 3 Real Bear Points
Hoka (Deckers) grew FY25 +30% to $2.2B, On Running +33% to $2.5B, New Balance +23% to an estimated $7.5B. These three combined gained more share in performance running in 2024 than Nike lost — structural, not cyclical. Gen Z (16-25) prioritizes lifestyle sneakers (New Balance 530, On Cloud, Hoka Bondi) over Nike Air Force 1.
Nike had 65% market share in performance running in 2019, only 47% by 2025. In lifestyle sneakers, share fell from 58% to 41%. That is category loss, not cycle. If Hill does not deliver clear share recovery within 18-24 months, Nike is no longer a compounder but a mature cash cow with low growth.
Greater China Q3 FY26: -17% YoY to $1.4B. Main reasons: weak local economy, continued Xinjiang boycott effect since 2021, anti-fashion trend (common prosperity), and real competition from Li-Ning (+18%) and Anta Sports (+22%) with local products at premium price tiers.
China was 18% of group revenue in 2020 ($7B), 11% in 2026 ($5B). Another -10% erosion in 2027 would push China to less than 10% of the group. That would be strategically dramatic — China was supposed to be the largest market by 2030 with 22-25% share.
Earnings growth of -34.8% YoY is a deep crisis. Q3 FY26 EPS $0.38 vs. $0.77 year-ago — minus 51%. FY26 EPS consensus now $1.80 (lowered from $2.40 in early 2025). If Q1 FY27 (June-August 2026 quarter) does not show clear acceleration, the stock could see another -15% to -20% re-rating.
Bear case: Hill's turnaround takes 24-30 months instead of 18, FY27 EPS $2.30 instead of consensus $2.90, multiple compression not because valuation is expensive but because confidence keeps eroding. Endpoint: $35-38 instead of $42 — another -15% downside.
Valuation in Context
Nike at $42.03 is valuation-broken on a snapshot basis: TTM P/E 27.7 (distorted by earnings drop), forward P/E 23.0 (FY27 consensus EPS), EV/EBITDA 17.0, P/S 1.34 (absolute historical low), PEG 1.31. On normalized earnings (mid-cycle FY28 EPS ~$3.20), P/E would be just 13.1.
Three models: (1) DCF at 4% revenue CAGR through 2030 (conservative), terminal margin 12%, WACC 8% → fair value $52-62. (2) Historical P/S model: 10-year median P/S 2.4, fair P/S 1.8-2.1 after brand erosion → $56-66. (3) Sum-of-the-parts: Direct (stores+online) 1.5x sales = $20B, wholesale 1.2x sales = $35B, brand IP/licensing $15B = $70B market cap = $48/share.
Average ~$52-60. Current price $42. Upside to midpoint: +24% to +43%. Plus 3.9% dividend while holding. Bull case (Hill turnaround fully successful + China mean reversion): $75-85. Bear case (structural brand decline + China collapses): $30-35.
🗓️ Next 3 Catalyst Dates
- June 26, 2026: Q4 FY26 earnings + possible dividend raise (22nd year in a row). FY27 guidance consensus ~+4% revenue; any acceleration would be an 8-15% stock kicker
- September 2026: Air Max 1 Heritage relaunch event (Tokyo + Paris simultaneously) — Hill's first big brand innovation moment as CEO; historically shares reacted +3% to +5% on well-received Air Max launches
- Q1 2027: FY27 Q2 earnings (December 2026 quarter) — holiday season plus Hill turnaround 12-month anniversary. Critical confidence test
💬 Daniel's Take
Nike is one of my conviction positions in 2026. I started building at $58 in November 2025, added at $48 in February 2026, again at $44 in April — currently ~5% portfolio weight at an average cost of $50. Currently down 16% on the position, -13% with dividends.
The thesis is clean: brand crisis is real, but cyclical. Elliott Hill is the right man (internal conflicts from the Donahoe era resolved), Pershing's stake is a confidence signal, P/S 1.34 is a generational low. With 3.9% dividend while waiting, this is a very good setup.
My 2026 setup: add at $39 (-7% from here) to 7% weight, scale to 9% at $35. If Hill delivers wholesale re-acceleration + innovation signals by Q4 FY26 (June 2026), mean reversion to $60-70 is plausible — that would be +43% to +67% plus dividend. On structural decline: stop-out at $32 (-24% from here). This is not investment advice — turnarounds do not all succeed.
Sources (3)
Disclaimer: This article is not investment advice. Investing in stocks carries risks, including total loss.
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