Nemetschek

Nemetschek is the European AEC (Architecture, Engineering, Construction) software leader and the only listed pure-play in 4D/5D Building Information Modeling outside Autodesk. FY2025 revenue EUR 1.04 bn at 30% EBIT margin — 16th consecutive year of double-digit organic growth. The Nemetschek family (Georg Nemetschek and heirs) hold 50.1% — controlling, founded the company 1963 and never sold a share.

The 2026 strategic narrative has three threads. First, the recurring-revenue conversion: Nemetschek closed FY2025 with 89% of group revenue as subscription/recurring versus 31% in 2018 — the SaaS-conversion arc is one of the cleanest in European software. Second, the GoCanvas acquisition (USD 800 M, closed March 2026) is the largest deal in company history — adds a US-based field-services mobile-software platform that complements the BIM core. The cross-sell to existing US construction customers is the synthesis bet. Third, US market-share gain: Autodesk's price hikes and architect/engineer customer frustration created a window for Nemetschek's Vectorworks, Bluebeam and Allplan brands to capture share in US firms — H2/2025 US revenue grew 19% organically vs 11% for EMEA.

The 2026 question is GoCanvas integration execution and whether the US momentum sustains into a potential 2026-2027 construction-spending slowdown.

Top holders Q1/2026: Nemetschek family ~50.1% (controlling), Capital Group 4.7%, T Rowe Price 3.4%, Norges Bank 2.6%, Allianz GI 1.5%. Free-float effective ~45%.

Most interesting: Lansdowne Partners opened 1.1% position in Q4/2025 — first major UK long-only fund presence in Nemetschek shareholder register. Comgest Growth Europe added 18% to existing position in Q1/2026 (their typical 50-name concentrated fund).

Insider activity: CEO Yves Padrines (joined April 2024 from Nokia) bought EUR 380k of stock in October 2025 at EUR 88 — his first open-market buy. CFO Louise Ofverstrom bought EUR 250k at EUR 84 in February 2026. The Nemetschek family has not transacted since 2003 — extraordinary stability signal.

Short interest 1.3% — typical for European quality software, slightly elevated relative to history reflecting GoCanvas integration uncertainty.

Forward P/E 20.4x in line with European software peer median 19x but at the higher end of European software-with-construction-exposure. EV/Sales 6.1x. EV/ARR (using FY2026 estimated ARR of EUR 1.05 bn) at 5.8x — premium to peer median 4.2x reflects superior margin and family-control quality. Sell-side PT consensus EUR 70 (range EUR 55-82): Berenberg most bullish at EUR 82 (GoCanvas full synergy achievement by 2028), Goldman most bearish at EUR 55 (US construction cycle + GoCanvas integration drag). Implied probability of GoCanvas accretion + US-market-share continuation in current price ~55%. Bull case EUR 78 (+30%) on FY2026 ARR growth above 23% AND GoCanvas integration ahead of schedule. Bear case EUR 48 (-20%) on US construction cycle + Autodesk competitive response biting.

1. August 2026: H1/2026 results — first reading on GoCanvas contribution and integration milestones
2. November 2026: Capital Markets Day — GoCanvas synergy roadmap, US market-share targets refresh
3. Throughout 2026: Quarterly US revenue prints — any deceleration below 12% organic would compress multiple

Nemetschek is the European software compounder for investors who believe BIM (Building Information Modeling) becomes infrastructure-grade rather than discretionary — and that the Autodesk-priced competitive window stays open through 2027. The 89% recurring revenue conversion is the cleanest in European software and the family-control structure is a feature for long-duration holders. I find the GoCanvas integration the biggest unknown — never bet against a quality-management team on a bolt-on, but USD 800 M is not a bolt-on. I size NEM at 2-3% as a quality European software allocation. Add trigger: any quarter showing US organic growth above 18% AND first quarterly read on GoCanvas integration not negative. The trade I would not make is sizing this above 4% — construction-cycle exposure is real and any synchronized US/EU construction slowdown compresses the multiple before earnings even disappoint.