MicroStrategy

MicroStrategy — officially rebranded simply as „Strategy” in August 2025 — is no longer a software company in 2026. It is the largest listed Bitcoin-treasury operator on the planet, holding roughly 601,500 BTC as of Q1/2026 at a cost basis near $38B and a market value around $72B with BTC at 120k. The legacy BI-software business still generates ~$80M of quarterly revenue at an operating loss — irrelevant to the valuation thesis.

What separates Saylor's 2026 playbook from the original 2020/21 thesis is that the funding mechanism is now self-reinforcing. Strategy continuously raises capital through ATM-equity programs and the 2027/2030/2032 convertible series at premiums to net-asset-value, so every newly issued share is BTC-per-share-accretive for legacy holders — call it „mNAV-premium recycling”. As long as MSTR trades above 1.4× mNAV, the flywheel turns. Slip below 1.0× and the same machine becomes a dilution trap.

The defining 2026 risk is the new Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax (CAMM): unrealized BTC gains could be subject to a 15% minimum tax starting FY2026 — a cash-tax exposure of up to $5B with zero BTC actually sold. Saylor is in active dialogue with the IRS for an exemption; the outcome determines whether Strategy faces a real liquidity event.

The Q1/2026 13Fs paint a split picture. Jane Street and Susquehanna show massive notional positions, but those are convertible-arb hedges against the bond stack — not directional longs. Capital Group, by contrast, added 18% to its position and now sits on ~4.1M shares, a real mandate-grade allocation.

The notable mover: Stanley Druckenmiller exited his stake entirely in Q4/2025, citing in interviews that the mNAV premium is „mathematically unstable across rate-cycle inflection points”. On the other side, Bill Miller (Miller Value Partners) made MSTR his largest single position — his Q1 letter described the security as „leveraged BTC with a 5-year cap-structure guarantee”.

Strategy currently trades around 1.42× mNAV (share price divided by BTC NAV per share). The three-year median premium is 1.8×, with spikes above 3× in BTC rallies and troughs below 0.8× during the 2022/23 bear-market lows. P/E is meaningless — there are no operating earnings to capitalize. The only metric that matters is BTC-yield (growth in BTC-per-share): 47% in 2024, 25% in 2025, 15%+ target for 2026. For comparison: spot BTC ETFs deliver 0% yield at 0% dilution.

1. July 2026: IRS ruling on the CAMM exemption for unrealized crypto gains — expected mid-Q3. An adverse ruling crystallizes a $5B+ 2027 cash-tax liability.
2. September 2026: Q3/2026 earnings and the updated 3-year BTC plan. Saylor has signaled that the original „21/21” plan ($21B equity + $21B debt by 2027) may be revised to a „42/42” program.
3. April 2027: Maturity of the 2027 convertible series (~$1.8B) — the first real refinancing stress test. With BTC below $80k, this could force a forced-seller scenario.

Strategy is not „Bitcoin with leverage” — it is a specific bet that Saylor can keep the mNAV premium structurally above 1.2×. As long as he does, it is the most asymmetric BTC vehicle in the US equity market. The moment the premium breaks, the same machine becomes a structural seller. I hold a small position (max 2% of the portfolio) as a convex bet, but never as a Bitcoin replacement — for that, a spot ETF like IBIT is the cleaner answer.