Joby Aviation

Joby Aviation has been the public-market poster child for electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft since its 2021 SPAC merger at 12 dollars. Three years later the stock sits at 10.37 dollars and the question is not whether eVTOLs will fly commercially — they will — but whether Joby will be the platform that scales or just the company that proves the category. Toyota committed an additional 500 million dollars in May 2025, bringing total Toyota investment to 894 million, and Delta Air Lines extended its 60-million-dollar partnership to include shared dispatch and crew operations.

The 2026 inflection is FAA Type Certification, which Joby management guides will land in Q4/2026 — making them the first eVTOL operator with US commercial authorization. The Dubai launch is already planned with the Roads and Transport Authority, with first revenue flights targeted for late 2026. Cash on hand was 924 million dollars at end of Q1/2026, with quarterly burn rate of 118 million — roughly 24 months of runway at current pace, which threads the needle on certification and early commercial operations.

Toyota Motor remains the largest external shareholder at 13.7% — not just passive capital but engineering integration on motors and battery systems via Toyota Industries. Delta holds 2.0%. SoftBank Vision Fund and Capricorn Investment Group sold down through 2024–2025 but Capricorn (Jeff Skoll vehicle, original Tesla backer) added back 800,000 shares in March 2026 at 8.40 dollars — a contrarian signal. Cathie Wood at Ark Invest holds 16.8 million shares across ARKK and ARKQ, average cost 9.20. Notably absent: traditional aerospace funds; the institutional base is still venture and ESG money.

At 10.37 dollars Joby trades at 10.2 billion dollar market cap with zero revenue and zero earnings. EV is 9.3 billion after net cash. There is no traditional valuation multiple — analyst price targets average 11.12 dollars and range from 6 to 17. The bull case extrapolates 2030 EBITDA of 800 million at 12x giving 96 dollar fair value; bear case is zero if the company runs out of cash before certification.

Position-size discipline is non-negotiable here. The probability-weighted fair value, using rough analyst scenario buckets — 30% certification success and Dubai launch by 2026, 50% delayed-by-12-months scenario, 20% capital-distress dilution event — gives roughly 12 dollars, marginally above current price. This is venture-capital risk in a public-market wrapper. Treat as such.

1. Q3/2026: FAA Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) flight test — final certification milestone before commercial authorization
2. Q4/2026: Dubai commercial launch — first revenue flights, first real unit-economics datapoints
3. Mid-2027: S4 production scale-up at Marina, California — target 500 aircraft per year by 2030 requires hitting first 50-aircraft annualized run-rate

Joby is the closest thing in US large-cap to a public-market venture investment. The risk and reward profile is not normal equity — it is binary on FAA certification and Dubai unit economics. I would not own this unless the position is small enough that a complete loss does not change your portfolio narrative — 0.5 to 1.5% allocation maximum. The Toyota relationship is the under-appreciated asset; if commercial scale ever arrives, Toyota Industries can manufacture 1,000 aircraft per year at automotive cost levels that none of the peers can match. The path to that day is long and unsubsidized by current cash flow. Speculative. Own it for the optionality, not the certainty.