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Intuitive Machines
LUNR Mid CapIndustrials · Aerospace & Defense
Updated: May 22, 2026, 22:06 UTC
Key Metrics
Valuation Analysis
About the Company
Intuitive Machines, Inc. operates as a space infrastructure and services company in the United States. The company provides delivery services for the transportation and delivery of payloads, such as satellites, scientific instruments, and cargo to various destinations in space, rideshare delivery, and lunar surface access; data transmission services, which include the collection, processing, and interpretation of space-based data, as well as utilizing AI applications, such as command, control, communications, reconnaissance and prospecting; and infrastructure as a service solutions for navigation, maintenance, scientific data collection, and system health monitoring. It also offers Nova-C lunar lander that combines flight-proven with a scalable design to meet the demands of the emerging lu
Intuitive Machines Stock at a Glance
Intuitive Machines (LUNR) is currently trading at $38.26 with a market capitalization of $6.1B. The 52-week range spans from $7.78 to $38.55; the current price is 0.8% below the yearly high. Year-over-year revenue growth stands at +198.7%.
💰 Dividend
Intuitive Machines currently does not pay a dividend. The company typically reinvests its earnings into growth initiatives and product development.
📊 Analyst Rating
9 analysts rate Intuitive Machines (LUNR) on consensus: Buy. The average price target is $38.00, implying -0.68% from the current price. Analyst price targets range from $11.00 to $50.00.
Investment Thesis: Strengths & Weaknesses
- Strong revenue growth of 198.7% YoY
- Analyst consensus: Buy
- –Currently unprofitable
- –High short interest (21.44%)
- –Negative free cash flow
- –Price near 52-week high — limited upside cushion
Technical Snapshot
Price trades above both the 50- and 200-day moving averages, with 50d above 200d — a classic bullish setup (golden-cross alignment).
Risk Profile
The data points to market-like volatility, elevated short interest (21.44%).
Trading Data
Related Stocks in the Same Sector
Intuitive Machines 2026: The Only Pure-Play on NASA Lunar Reactivation Is Up 4x With Real Revenue
The Real Story
Intuitive Machines (LUNR) sits in the rarefied category of speculative space stocks that have actually delivered: in March 2026 the company became the first private entity to land twice on the Moon (Athena IM-2 mission, February 2026), and Q3/FY26 revenue of $334M is up 199% YoY — driven not by hype but by deliveries against the NASA Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) contract framework. The CEO Steve Altemus (Apollo-era NASA veteran) has built the company around three contractual revenue pillars: lunar lander payload delivery (IM-3 in 2026, IM-4 in 2027), the Near Space Network (NSN) communications contract worth $4.8B over 10 years, and the Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) team-up with Lockheed Martin for the 2028 Artemis V mission.
The thesis pivots on three structural advantages: NASA Artemis program funding rose from $7.4B in 2024 to $9.2B in 2026 with bipartisan support (the only fully funded NASA program through 2028); LUNR is one of only 3 qualified CLPS suppliers (Firefly, Astrobotic); and the Near Space Network contract — won November 2024 — converts to recurring revenue starting Q3/2026, providing the first non-mission-based revenue stream.
The Q4/FY26 forward guidance of $440-500M revenue, with management targeting EBITDA breakeven by Q4/2027, is the inflection point. At the current $5.4B market cap and 199% revenue growth, LUNR is one of the few space stocks where the underlying TAM economics are real, not aspirational.
What Smart Money Thinks
LUNR has attracted unusual institutional ownership for a former SPAC. Cathie Wood's ARK Invest across ARKX (Space ETF) and ARKK holds 8.4M shares — making LUNR the second-largest position in ARKX behind Kratos Defense. Capital Research and Management (American Funds) at 7.2M shares per Q1/2026 13F. BlackRock at 11.8M, Vanguard at 8.9M — passive but meaningful given the small float of just 110M shares.
The smart-money tell: Lockheed Martin Ventures still holds its 8.4% stake from the 2023 partnership investment, with a 5-year lockup that ends June 2028. Northrop Grumman took a strategic 3.1% position in Q4/2025 — the first time the prime contractor has invested directly in a CLPS supplier.
Insider activity (SEC Form 4): no insider sales over 100,000 shares since the November 2024 Near Space Network contract award. CEO Steve Altemus actually bought 25,000 shares in February 2026 at $28 on the open market (~$700K outlay) — uncommon for a high-profile SPAC veteran. CFO Pete McGrath holds his entire founder stake unchanged since IPO.
Explore the BMI Smart-Money Tracker →
📈 The 3 Real Bull Points
LUNR won the NASA Near Space Network (NSN) contract in November 2024 — a 10-year, $4.8B framework agreement to provide communications relay services for lunar and cislunar missions. Service revenue begins Q3/2026 at $48M annual run-rate, ramping to $480M by 2030 as the NSN infrastructure scales. This single contract converts LUNR from a mission-by-mission revenue model to a recurring-service business — a category re-rating event that has not yet shown up in consensus models.
IM-1 (Odysseus, February 2024) was the first US lunar landing since Apollo 17 in 1972, even though the lander tipped on touchdown. IM-2 (Athena, February 2026) achieved a clean upright landing at the Mons Mouton south-pole region. With IM-3 scheduled for Q4/2026 and IM-4 for Q3/2027, LUNR builds the only commercial operational track record in lunar landing. The reliability premium versus Astrobotic (Peregrine mission failed January 2024) is now substantial and reflected in NASA award allocation.
The Lockheed Martin / Intuitive Machines team won the NASA Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) award in April 2024, beating Northrop and Astrolab. The 2028 Artemis V mission carries the team's pressurized rover for surface mobility. Total contract value: $4.6B over the platform lifetime. LUNR's share at 24% = $1.1B of revenue contribution between 2027-2033, spread across construction, testing, and operations phases. The Artemis V mission timeline aligns LUNR's revenue ramp with the Q4/2026-Q3/2027 trough in lander-mission cadence.
📉 The 3 Real Bear Points
LUNR trades at a forward P/E of 521x — by far the highest in the space-economy category. The valuation only works on long-term DCF assuming Near Space Network revenue ramps to $480M by 2030 AND mission cadence accelerates to 2+ landings per year by 2028. Either a NASA budget cut (presidential transition risk in 2028) or a single mission failure would compress the multiple by 50%+ in days. Every announced delay (and IM-3 has slipped twice already) erodes the timeline assumptions baked into the valuation.
Q4/FY26 profit margin of -32.7% reflects the lumpiness of mission revenue: when IM-2 launched in February 2026, revenue spiked +88% sequentially, but the cost basis for IM-3 development is incurred even before IM-3 generates revenue in Q4/2026. EBITDA breakeven by Q4/2027 (management guidance) requires three concurrent things: IM-3 mission revenue recognition, NSN service ramp on schedule, and zero major program write-offs. Any single slippage delays profitability into 2028 — a 12-month delay that fundamentally re-prices the stock.
NASA represents 87% of FY26 revenue per the 10-Q risk disclosure. This is structural — there is no commercial market for lunar payload delivery yet at scale — but it creates pure US political-budget risk. A Trump-administration reduction in Artemis funding (Project 2025 proposals included 40% NASA budget cuts) would land directly on LUNR. The Department of Defense lunar surveillance work (CHRONOS, Echo programs) is growing as a counter-balance but currently represents under 8% of revenue.
Valuation in Context
LUNR at $5.4B market cap on FY27 consensus revenue of $580M trades at 9.3x EV/sales — extraordinarily high for an unprofitable industrial. The only meaningful comparison is Rocket Lab (RKLB) at 12x EV/sales with similar revenue growth but a more diversified end market. Traditional valuation methods break down — DCF with 35% terminal growth through 2030 and 8% WACC arrives at a $48-58 fair-value range; bear DCF with mission slippages and NSN delays arrives at $18-22. The stock at $33.89 sits roughly between these scenarios. The forward P/E of 521x is meaningless until LUNR generates predictable earnings, which will not happen before 2028. Bull scenario: IM-3 and IM-4 successful, NSN ramps on schedule, multiple new commercial contracts = $50-65 within 24 months. Bear scenario: any mission failure or 18-month timeline slip = $15-18 (down 50%+).
🗓️ Next 3 Catalyst Dates
- Q3 2026: Near Space Network service revenue first quarter — beginning of the recurring revenue model that re-rates the stock from mission-cadence to subscription
- Q4 2026: IM-3 lunar landing mission — third commercial lunar landing in 3 years; success extends LUNR's reliability premium over competitors
- Q1 2028: Artemis V mission launch with Lockheed-IM Lunar Terrain Vehicle — $4.6B contract activation milestone; LUNR's $1.1B share contributes to FY28 revenue ramp
💬 Daniel's Take
LUNR is the speculative pure-play on the NASA lunar reactivation thesis that I find most defensible — the Near Space Network contract converts it from binary mission-success-or-failure to a hybrid recurring-revenue space contractor. I size this at 0.5-1% of a speculative growth sleeve, no more — the 521x forward P/E means any single bad mission could halve the stock. The risk-reward is asymmetric: a $50 target in 24 months requires three things to go right (IM-3 success, NSN ramp, no major program write-offs). My personal trigger to upsize is a successful IM-3 mission landing combined with NSN revenue recognition above $50M annualized. Watching Artemis budget appropriations more than the share price.
Sources (3)
Disclaimer: This article is not investment advice. Investing in stocks carries risks, including total loss.
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