Hilton
HLT Large CapConsumer Cyclical · Lodging
Updated: Jul 5, 2026, 22:19 UTC
Price Chart
Key Metrics
Valuation Analysis
About the Company
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., a hospitality company, engages in managing, franchising, and leasing hotels and resorts. It operates in two segments, Management and Franchise, and Ownership. The company engages in the hotel management and licensing of its brand names, trademarks, and service marks. It operates a brand portfolio of luxury, lifestyle, full service, focused service, all-suites hotel, and timeshare under the Waldorf Astoria Hotels & Resorts, LXR Hotels & Resorts, Conrad Hotels & Resorts, Signia by Hilton, NoMad, Canopy by Hilton, Graduate by Hilton, Tempo by Hilton, Motto by Hilton, Hilton Hotels & Resorts, DoubleTree by Hilton, Curio Collection by Hilton, Tapestry Collection by Hilton, Outset Collection by Hilton, Embassy Suites by Hilton, Homewood Suites by Hilton, Home2 Sui
Hilton Stock at a Glance
Hilton (HLT) is currently trading at $338.12 with a market capitalization of $77B. The trailing P/E ratio stands at 51.54x, with a forward P/E of 32.46x. The 52-week range spans from $253.54 to $358.00; the current price is 5.6% below the yearly high. Year-over-year revenue growth stands at +11.0%. The net profit margin stands at 30.41%.
💰 Dividend
Hilton pays an annual dividend of $0.60 per share, representing a yield of 0.18%. The payout ratio stands at 9.16%.
📊 Analyst Rating
24 analysts rate Hilton (HLT) on consensus: None. The average price target is $347.33, implying +2.72% from the current price. Analyst price targets range from $260.00 to $390.00.
Hilton: The Investment Case in Detail
Hilton (HLT) operates in the Consumer Cyclical — specifically Lodging — and is headquartered in United States. Below is a structured read of the investment case built directly from the latest fundamentals, valuation multiples, analyst positioning and smart-money flows. Each section translates raw numbers into the investment logic they imply, so you can decide whether the risk/reward fits your portfolio.
The Bull Case
Revenue is growing at a healthy 11% pace year-over-year, suggesting the business model continues to find new customers and pricing power. Earnings growth of 35% is outpacing revenue, a sign of operational leverage — fixed costs are being absorbed across a larger base. With a gross margin near 78.5%, the company sits in the top tier of its industry — these are the kinds of structural margins that protect earnings during downturns.
The Bear Case
A trailing P/E above 50 combined with revenue growth below 20% is a dangerous combination — the market is paying a steep growth multiple for what is, by the data, only moderately fast expansion. Our valuation screen flags the stock as overvalued — current multiples imply the business needs to deliver well above its recent trajectory to justify the price.
Valuation in Context
The EV/EBITDA multiple of 29.8x reflects rich expectations — historically, multiples at this level have proven hard to maintain for more than a few quarters.
Smart-Money Signal
On the institutional side, Hilton appears in the disclosed holdings of Ackman. Smart-money managers track positioning, fundamentals and competitive dynamics with research budgets few retail investors can match — when several converge on the same name, it is rarely random. That doesn't mean blind copying makes sense, but it does raise the bar for the bear case.
What to Watch Next
- The forward P/E of 32.46x is meaningfully below the trailing 51.54x — analysts expect earnings to step up; the next earnings release is the test.
Investment Thesis: Strengths & Weaknesses
- Profitable with 30.41% net margin
- High gross margin of 78.5% — indicates pricing power
- Positive free cash flow
- –High valuation multiple (P/E 51.54x)
- –Currently flagged as overvalued
Technical Snapshot
Price trades above both the 50- and 200-day moving averages, with 50d above 200d — a classic bullish setup (golden-cross alignment).
Risk Profile
The data points to market-like volatility.
Trading Data
💵 Dividend Info
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Hilton 2026: Ackman's Asset-Light Compounder at Forward P/E 30
The Real Story
Hilton in 2026 is Bill Ackman's longest-held position outside of Berkshire — Pershing Square has owned HLT continuously since 2018. The thesis was simple: Hilton is no longer a hotel company. It is an asset-light, fee-based franchise platform with 78% gross margins and 57% operating margins — closer in economics to Visa or Mastercard than to Marriott of 1990. Pershing Square holds 8.4M shares (~$2.7B) as of Q1/2026, representing 16% of the fund's portfolio.
The 2026 story is Tru by Hilton plus Spark Hilton — the budget-extended-stay brand families that are taking share from independent lodging. Tru opened 78 net new hotels in 2025 (+18% pipeline growth), and Spark Hilton (launched 2023) is now at 95 hotels with 4.2 RevPAR index versus average regional comp. Hilton's pipeline now stands at 462,000 rooms — almost a third of its 2025 portfolio size (1.18M rooms).
The hidden engine is Hilton Honors. The loyalty program reached 200M members in Q4/2025 — up from 158M in 2024 — and member spend now drives 65% of total occupied room-nights. Co-brand credit-card revenue (American Express partnership) reached $1.1B in 2025 with 28% YoY growth. The loyalty network effect is widening every quarter — and Marriott Bonvoy is the only competing platform at remotely similar scale.
What Smart Money Thinks
Bill Ackman's Pershing Square has held Hilton continuously since 2018, making it the longest-held active position in Pershing Square outside of legacy Burger King/Restaurant Brands. Pershing holds 8.4M shares ($2.7B at Q1/2026 marks) — 16% of fund AUM and 4.4% of total Hilton shares outstanding. Ackman has not trimmed in 18 months.
Other notable smart-money: Bill Miller of Miller Value Partners added 240K shares in Q1/2026, citing the 'permanent secular shift from independent to franchised lodging' as the unbroken thesis. Vanguard added 1.2M shares (organic ETF rebalancing). Marshall Wace also entered as a top-30 holder with 2.1M shares in Q4/2025.
Insider activity (Form 4): CEO Chris Nassetta sold 188,000 shares in February 2026 at $312 (10b5-1 routine). Notably, Nassetta has acquired 50,000 shares through RSU vests but has not made an open-market buy in 7 years. CFO Kevin Jacobs sold 75,000 shares in March 2026 at $318. No insider buying signals — but this is the established baseline at Hilton, not a thesis-break.
Explore the BMI Smart-Money Tracker →
📈 The 3 Real Bull Points
Hilton is no longer a hotel company in any economic sense. Of Hilton's 1.18M rooms, only 11% are company-managed and a mere 1% are owned. The remaining 88% are franchised — Hilton earns a 4-5% royalty on room revenue plus a 0.5-1% marketing fee without holding the real estate. Result: 78% gross margin, 57% operating margin, $1.7B free cash flow on $5.1B revenue (33% FCF margin). These are SaaS-class economics in a 100-year-old industry.
Hilton's pipeline of 462,000 signed-but-not-yet-open rooms equals 39% of the existing 1.18M-room portfolio. Pipeline growth was +9% YoY in Q1/2026, driven primarily by Tru by Hilton (78 net new in 2025) and Spark Hilton (95 hotels by Q1/2026). Every signed pipeline room is contractually committed to a 20-30 year franchise agreement — locking in future fee revenue without Hilton spending a dollar of capex.
Hilton Honors reached 200M members in Q4/2025 (+27% YoY from 158M in 2024). Member spend drives 65% of occupied room-nights. The American Express co-brand credit-card partnership generated $1.1B in 2025 (+28% YoY). At 200M members, Hilton has now passed Marriott Bonvoy as the world's largest hotel loyalty program — a structural switching-cost moat that compounds with every cardholder.
📉 The 3 Real Bear Points
Hilton trades at a forward P/E of 30× and EV/EBITDA of 19× as of May 2026 — the highest valuation in lodging since the 2001 internet-bubble peak (Hilton was acquired by Blackstone in 2007 at lower forward multiples). The current valuation requires RevPAR growth of 5%+ annually plus pipeline-completion at 95% of the targeted rate through 2028. A US recession with leisure travel down 8% would compress the multiple to 22× — a 27% drawdown.
Hilton's reported beta of 1.07 is misleading because of its short trading history (re-IPO 2013, no full cycle yet). The earlier Hilton-Blackstone entity took a 60% drawdown during 2008-2009; Marriott (a fair proxy) dropped 56% in 2008-2009 and 45% in March 2020. A 2027 US recession with unemployment >5.5% could deliver another 40%+ Hilton drawdown despite the asset-light moat.
Hilton's budget-extended-stay growth thesis assumes share gains from Marriott (Aloft, AC, Element) and Hyatt (Place, House). All three peers also expanded their pipelines aggressively in 2025-2026. The 'whole new category' framing has shifted to 'crowded category' — which compresses unit economics and slows the net-pipeline-add rate. The 462K-pipeline number could compress to 350K by 2028 in a peer-competitive scenario.
Valuation in Context
Hilton trades at a forward P/E of 30.4× and EV/EBITDA of 19× as of May 2026 — the premium end of lodging-comp peers (Marriott at 25×, Hyatt at 22×, Choice Hotels at 18×). The bull case (Wells Fargo, Stifel) values Hilton at $385-390 on a continued 39% pipeline-to-portfolio expansion and 25% earnings CAGR through 2028. The bear case (Barclays) at $260 assumes a 2027 US recession compresses both RevPAR and pipeline-completion rates. Wall Street analyst targets range from $260 (Barclays) to $390 (Wells Fargo), median $347 vs. current $317 — 10% upside before the modest 0.2% dividend. The buyback yield is ~3.5% on a $4B 2026 authorization — modest contributor.
🗓️ Next 3 Catalyst Dates
- July 22, 2026: Q2/2026 earnings — system-wide RevPAR growth is the critical KPI; <3.5% growth pressures the bull thesis
- October 2026: Q3/2026 earnings — first full peak-leisure-season data point on whether Tru and Spark Hilton are taking share from independents or just adding capacity
- February 2027: Hilton Investor Day — first formal management framework on 2030 pipeline ambition and brand-portfolio strategy
💬 Daniel's Take
Hilton is the cleanest 'asset-light franchise compounder' in lodging — and Ackman's 8-year unbroken hold is the strongest non-verbal endorsement of the thesis. The economics are real: 57% operating margin on a hospitality business is a structural anomaly. What I struggle with at $317 is the multiple. Forward P/E 30× is hilton-bubble territory historically, and a US-leisure-recession scenario in 2027 would compress this 30-40%. I hold HLT at 2% of my portfolio with a no-add zone between $290-$340 and an active-add trigger below $260 (forward P/E 25, recession-tested entry). My personal play book here is patient: the pipeline and Honors network effects keep compounding through cycles, but you should not pay 30× to enter mid-cycle. Wait for the discount.
Sources (3)
Disclaimer: This article is not investment advice. Investing in stocks carries risks, including total loss.
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