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Hamilton Lane
HLNE Mid CapFinancial Services · Asset Management
Updated: May 22, 2026, 22:06 UTC
Key Metrics
Valuation Analysis
About the Company
Hamilton Lane Incorporated is a private equity and venture capital firm specializing in early venture, emerging growth, turnaround, middle market, mature, mid-venture, bridge, buyout, distressed/vulture, loan, mezzanine in growth capital companies. The firm manages alternative investment strategies like direct credit, direct, fund of fund, evergreen and real assets. For primary and secondary fund of fund investments, the firm focuses to invest in private equity, buyout, special situations, credit, growth equity, middle market, mature, turnarounds, mezzanine and venture capital funds. The firm prefers to invest in disruptive technologies and innovative companies. It prefers to invest in space, engine, alternative energy resources, environmental & facilities services, households durables, le
Hamilton Lane Stock at a Glance
Hamilton Lane (HLNE) is currently trading at $90.32 with a market capitalization of $5B. The trailing P/E ratio stands at 16.1x, with a forward P/E of 12.14x. The 52-week range spans from $82.69 to $179.19; the current price is 49.6% below the yearly high. Year-over-year revenue growth stands at -2.2%. The net profit margin stands at 32.83%.
💰 Dividend
Hamilton Lane pays an annual dividend of $2.16 per share, representing a yield of 2.39%. The payout ratio stands at 37.61%.
📊 Analyst Rating
7 analysts rate Hamilton Lane (HLNE) on consensus: Buy. The average price target is $135.57, implying +50.1% from the current price. Analyst price targets range from $108.00 to $171.00.
Investment Thesis: Strengths & Weaknesses
- Profitable with 32.83% net margin
- High return on equity (32.44% ROE)
- High gross margin of 60.53% — indicates pricing power
- Analyst consensus: Buy
- Currently flagged as undervalued
- Solid dividend yield of 2.39%
- Solid balance sheet with low debt (D/E 24.31)
- Positive free cash flow
- –Revenue shrinking (-2.2% YoY)
- –High short interest (11.19%)
Technical Snapshot
Price is below both the 50- and 200-day moving averages, with 50d below 200d — a bearish picture (death-cross alignment).
Risk Profile
The data points to elevated short interest (11.19%).
Trading Data
💵 Dividend Info
Related Stocks in the Same Sector
Hamilton Lane 2026: Private-Markets Compounder at 52-Week Low, Evergreen Funds and the CEO Succession Reset
The Real Story
Hamilton Lane is the oldest and largest pure-play private-markets advisor and investment manager in the US, founded 1991 and IPO'd 2017 at USD 16. The firm advises and manages approximately USD 945 bn of private-markets assets across primary fund commitments, secondaries, co-investments, direct credit, real estate and infrastructure. FY2025 revenue USD 763 M (+18% growth), operating margin 43.3%, ROE 31.7%, profit margin 30.6% — financial profile of a high-quality compounding asset manager rather than a low-margin advisor. Headline P/E 15.2x and forward P/E 14.0x — historically cheap for HLNE which has traded at 25-35x P/E throughout 2021-2024.
The 2026 strategic story has three threads. First, the share-price reset: HLNE has fallen from its July-2024 peak of USD 179 to USD 85 — a 52.4% drawdown driven by alternative-asset-manager sector multiple compression (Blue Owl, Apollo, Blackstone all derated 20-35% in 2024-2025), CEO succession news (long-time CEO Mario Giannini stepping back to executive chairman, Juan Delgado-Moreira and Erik Hirsch advancing to co-CEO), and modest 2025 institutional fundraising slowdown affecting primary-fund commitment growth. The current 52-week position is 1.1% — essentially at the absolute trough of the range. Second, the evergreen-funds wealth channel: Hamilton Lane Private Assets Fund (HLPVF), HL Direct Equity Fund, HL Senior Credit Opportunities — combined evergreen-wealth AUM reached USD 28 bn at end-2025 from USD 8 bn at end-2022, growing 50%+ per annum. The wealth-channel strategy explicitly targets USD 75-100 bn AUM by 2030 and is the structural-growth pillar that replaces the slowing institutional-commitment AUM. Third, the CEO-succession reset: Mario Giannini led HLNE for 25 years; Juan Delgado-Moreira (President since 2019, ex-Hermes) and Erik Hirsch (Vice Chairman, ex-Wharton-CIO) split CEO duties from 2024 onwards.
The 2026 question is whether the sector-multiple-compression cycle is complete, whether the evergreen wealth-channel continues its 50% CAGR trajectory through 2027, and whether the co-CEO structure delivers operational continuity through Mario Giannini's transition.
What Smart Money Thinks
Top holders Q1/2026: Hartley Rogers family entities (Pendrick Capital — Rogers is co-founder and chairman emeritus) approximately 9.2%, Vanguard 9.1%, BlackRock 7.4%, Capital Group 4.8%, T. Rowe Price 3.1%, Wellington Management 2.9%, Fidelity 2.4%. Free-float effectively 75%.
Most interesting move: Capital Group increased its position 28% in Q4/2025 — first major US large-cap-asset-manager buying since 2022 at sub-USD 95 prices. Wellington added 16% in Q1/2026. Pendrick Capital (the Rogers family) has not reduced its 9.2% stake since 2020 — a credible signal that the founding-family wealth-stewardship vehicle sees long-duration value at current levels. Notably, T. Rowe Price trimmed 8% in Q1/2026 — moderate reduction not exit. The shareholder register reflects accumulating high-quality US institutions absorbing the share-price weakness.
Insider activity: Co-CEO Erik Hirsch bought USD 850k of stock in November 2025 at USD 92 — first major insider purchase since 2020. Co-CEO Juan Delgado-Moreira bought USD 350k in Q1/2026. CFO Atul Varma exercised options in Q4/2025 and held 100% of resulting shares. Notably, founder-and-executive-chairman Mario Giannini has not sold a single share since stepping back from CEO — explicit confidence signal during transition. The pattern of insider open-market accumulation at the 52-week trough is a strong contrarian bull signal.
Short interest 11.2% (short ratio 4.5 days to cover) — moderate. The bear thesis is concentrated on: alternative-asset-manager-sector multiple-compression continuation, evergreen-wealth-channel growth deceleration if competitor pressure increases, and CEO-succession execution risk during Giannini's transition. The contrarian bull signals (insider buying, no founder sale, Capital/Wellington accumulation) all suggest the bear case may be priced in.
Explore the BMI Smart-Money Tracker →
📈 The 3 Real Bull Points
HLNE forward P/E 14.0x is the lowest multiple since the 2018 post-IPO trough. Historical range 22-32x. The compression has happened despite continued 18% revenue growth, 43% operating margin, 31.7% ROE — fundamentals that justify the 22-32x multiple have not deteriorated. The reset reflects sector-beta multiple compression rather than HLNE-specific concerns. If sector multiples normalise even modestly (say 18-20x forward), HLNE share price expands 30-40% on multiple alone before any further EPS growth. Dividend yield 2.54% covered 2.7x by earnings provides downside support during the rerating wait.
Hamilton Lane Private Assets Fund (HLPVF), HL Direct Equity Fund, HL Senior Credit Opportunities — combined evergreen-wealth AUM reached USD 28 bn at end-2025 from USD 8 bn at end-2022, growing approximately 50% CAGR. The strategy targets USD 75-100 bn AUM by 2030 via expanded distribution platforms (Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, UBS, RBC), institutional-quality fund-design for HNW and retail, and the structural Cerulli-estimated USD 1.5 tn HNW capital targeting private-markets through 2030. Wealth-channel management fees run 100-150 bps versus institutional 50-80 bps — a 2-3x fee uplift that drives operating margin expansion as the wealth-channel mix grows.
Co-CEO Erik Hirsch purchased USD 850k stock at USD 92 in November 2025, Juan Delgado-Moreira purchased USD 350k in Q1/2026, CFO held 100% of options exercised. Founder Mario Giannini has not sold a single share through his transition to executive chairman. Pendrick Capital (Rogers family, 9.2% stake) has not reduced position since 2020. Capital Group and Wellington Management accumulated 16-28% to their positions in Q4/2025-Q1/2026. The collective signal is rare in alternative-asset-management — long-duration holders and insiders treating the 52-week trough as an accumulation opportunity rather than a fundamental warning.
📉 The 3 Real Bear Points
HLNE peers have all derated: Blue Owl (OWL) -28%, Blackstone (BX) -18%, Apollo (APO) -22%, KKR -14% since 2021 peaks. Drivers include higher rates (long-duration carry NPV compression), competition from passive private-markets vehicles, GP-LP fee compression, and macro-flow rotation. If sector multiples compress further (say to 12x forward), HLNE could decline another 15-20% even with stable earnings. The bear case is that the sector is in a multi-year derating that has not finished. Note: HLNE has compressed more than peers on a relative basis, suggesting some catch-up is plausible.
2022-2024 saw a sustained institutional private-markets fundraising slowdown driven by the denominator effect (LPs over-allocated to privates as public markets sold off). Although the 2024-2025 public-market rebound has resolved the denominator effect for most LPs, the 2026 institutional-fundraising environment remains 25-35% below 2021 peak. Hamilton Lane primary-commitment AUM growth has slowed from 18-22% (2018-2021) to 10-12% (2024-2025). Until institutional fundraising returns to 15%+ growth, the institutional-management-fee base struggles to compound. The wealth-channel growth offsets but is not yet large enough to be the dominant revenue driver.
Mario Giannini led Hamilton Lane for 25 years and built the institutional franchise. Co-CEO structure with Juan Delgado-Moreira and Erik Hirsch is now in place but the operational test runs through 2026-2027 — managing the transition, the cultural continuity at the institutional client level, and the strategic-direction decisions on wealth-channel expansion pace. CEO-succession risk in asset management is real (recent examples: Eaton Vance, Affiliated Managers Group, GAMCO Investors) — clients can be sticky for a year then defect if execution slips.
Valuation in Context
Forward P/E 14.0x, P/S 6.2x, EV/EBITDA 12.9x, dividend yield 2.54%. All metrics at the cheap end of HLNE historical range (2018-2024 P/E range 14-32x). Comparable alternative-asset-manager peers trade at P/E 13-22x — HLNE is at the bottom of peer range despite superior quality metrics (43% operating margin vs peer 30-38%, 31.7% ROE vs peer 12-22%). The right framework is fee-related-earnings (FRE) plus performance-fee NPV. FRE FY2025 USD 330 M (43.3% margin on USD 763 M revenue), growing 18% per annum. Sell-side PT consensus USD 138.14 (range USD 108-171): Morgan Stanley most bullish at USD 171 (sector multiple recovery + evergreen acceleration + CEO transition smooth), HSBC most bearish at USD 108 (sector multiple stays compressed + evergreen slows + institutional weakness persists). 7 analysts cover, recommendation classified as buy. Implied probability of sector-multiple recovery + evergreen growth in current price approximately 35% — bears dominate. Bull case USD 175 (+106%) on multiple expansion to 20x + evergreen AUM USD 50 bn by 2027 + sector recovery. Bear case USD 65 (-24%) on sector multiple compresses to 11x + evergreen slows + CEO disruption.
🗓️ Next 3 Catalyst Dates
- Q2 2026: FY2026 (year ending March 2026) full-year results — evergreen AUM trajectory + sector-multiple update
- Q4 2026: Annual Investor Day — refreshed 2030 evergreen-AUM targets and capital-return framework
- Q1 2027: First full year of Co-CEO structure operational results — defines transition execution
💬 Daniel's Take
Hamilton Lane is one of the cleanest quality-compounder buy-the-dip setups in alternative-asset-management today. The thesis is straightforward: a 20%+ ROE / 43% operating margin compounding business trading at 14x forward — multiple below its 2018 post-IPO trough — with structural growth (evergreen wealth channel) accelerating and contrarian bull signals (insider buying, founder family stable, Capital/Wellington accumulating). The 53% drawdown from peak prices in a multi-year sector derating. The bear case is real but priced in: sector multiple compression has been continuing for two years and could continue further. I size HLNE at 1.5-2.5% as the quality alternative-asset-management satellite. The trade I would not make is sizing above 3.5% — sector beta is real and the timing of multiple-recovery is uncertain. Add trigger: any quarter with evergreen AUM growth above 40% combined with stabilising sector multiples. Cut trigger: Mario Giannini selling stock, evergreen AUM growth below 25%, or further institutional-fundraising deterioration. This is a 2-3 year quality-compounder trade with multiple-recovery optionality — the patience is the price of admission to a 25-30% multi-year IRR opportunity.
Sources (3)
Disclaimer: This article is not investment advice. Investing in stocks carries risks, including total loss.
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