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Futu Holdings
FUTU Large CapFinancial Services · Capital Markets
Updated: May 22, 2026, 22:06 UTC
Key Metrics
Valuation Analysis
About the Company
Futu Holdings Limited engages in the provision of digitalized securities brokerage and wealth management product distribution service in Hong Kong and internationally. It offers online financial services, including securities and derivative trades brokerage, margin financing and fund distribution services through its Futubull and Moomoo digital platforms. The company also provides financial information and online community services; online wealth management services under the Money Plus brand name through its Futubull and moomoo platforms, which provides its client access to mutual funds, private funds, bonds, structured products, and other wealth management products; market data and information services; and NiuNiu Community, an open forum for users and clients to share insights, ask ques
Futu Holdings Stock at a Glance
Futu Holdings (FUTU) is currently trading at $89.76 with a market capitalization of $12.6B. The trailing P/E ratio stands at 8.77x, with a forward P/E of 6.46x. The 52-week range spans from $80.55 to $202.53; the current price is 55.7% below the yearly high. Year-over-year revenue growth stands at +53.1%. The net profit margin stands at 53.76%.
💰 Dividend
Futu Holdings pays an annual dividend of $2.60 per share, representing a yield of 2.9%.
📊 Analyst Rating
19 analysts rate Futu Holdings (FUTU) on consensus: Strong Buy. The average price target is $231.19, implying +157.57% from the current price. Analyst price targets range from $192.99 to $299.73.
Investment Thesis: Strengths & Weaknesses
- Strong revenue growth of 53.1% YoY
- Profitable with 53.76% net margin
- High return on equity (33.08% ROE)
- High gross margin of 94.38% — indicates pricing power
- Analyst consensus: Strong Buy
- Currently flagged as undervalued
- Solid dividend yield of 2.9%
- Solid balance sheet with low debt (D/E 43.35)
No significant red flags in current metrics.
Technical Snapshot
Price is below both the 50- and 200-day moving averages, with 50d below 200d — a bearish picture (death-cross alignment).
Risk Profile
The data points to relatively defensive market behavior, elevated short interest (5.25%).
Trading Data
💵 Dividend Info
Related Stocks in the Same Sector
Futu Holdings 2026: Tencent Anchor, 69% Operating Margin and +71% Analyst Upside — the Sleeper in Chinese Fintech
The Real Story
Futu Holdings (FUTU) is probably the most mispriced fintech stock on Nasdaq in 2026. The Hong Kong-based digital brokerage platform (founded 2012, IPO 2019) is permanently trading at a 30-40% China discount because of its Tencent connection — even though its operating numbers materially outperform every US online broker (Schwab, IBKR, HOOD): Q4 2025 revenue $410M (+25% YoY), EPS $1.02, operating margin 69%, profit margin 54%, ROE 33%.
The real driver is international growth. Futu now operates across 8 markets (Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia, US, Japan, Malaysia, Canada, plus a new 2026 entrant) and added over 950,000 new funded accounts in 2025 (beat guidance by 19%) — the installed base now stands at ~3.4M (+40% YoY). Goldman Sachs forecasts another +800K new paying clients in 2026 (+24%) at a customer acquisition cost of only HKD 2,500-3,000 (~$320-380). For context: Robinhood's CAC runs $150-200, but Futu's LTV/CAC is materially higher thanks to the premium user mix.
The third lever: in September 2025 Futu invested HK$500M into Airstar Bank (HK virtual bank, Tencent joint venture) — the first concrete bridge from brokerage into regulated banking. If that gets Futu a HK banking license for wealth-management custody accounts, the custody asset pool unlocks materially.
What Smart Money Thinks
Futu isn't in the classic US smart-money 13F reports — no Berkshire, Burry, or Druckenmiller — but the cap table is exceptionally strong. Tencent Holdings has been the largest investor since 2019 and still holds a significant strategic position. Sequoia Capital and Matrix Partners are the other early anchor investors, both still involved. CEO and founder Leaf Li (ex-Tencent employee, ~28% shareholding) is a strong founder-float position.
In the active hedge fund universe, Hillhouse Capital (Lei Zhang) has been adding since 2024 — Hillhouse is the Sequoia-China equivalent and scaled Tencent, JD, and Meituan early. GMO Singapore, Och-Ziff Asia, and Fidelity Asia Fund are also visible in the HK filings as significant holders.
US smart money is hesitant because of geopolitical risks (Hong Kong regulation, China ADR delisting threat). But: Futu migrated to a variable interest entity (VIE) structure in 2024 that is SEC-compliant, and the operating headquarters is in Hong Kong, not mainland China. That meaningfully lowers the delisting risk versus pure-mainland names like Baidu or Tencent ADR.
Explore the BMI Smart-Money Tracker →
📈 The 3 Real Bull Points
Schwab trades at 18× forward P/E, IBKR at 22×, Robinhood at 28×. Futu at 9.69× — with the highest operating margin (69%) and highest ROE (33%) in the group. That's a classic China discount that should partially close when Q1 2026 earnings on June 3 confirm the account growth story. Even halving the discount to 14× P/E would imply +45% upside.
Goldman Sachs expects another 800,000 new funded accounts in 2026. At an average revenue per account (ARPA) of HKD 6,500 (~$830), that's ~$665M of additional annualized revenue from 2026 cohort alone. Plus cross-sell into wealth management (Cash Plus, funds, margin trading) — Futu pushed wealth AUM to HK$200B in 2025. The compound growth model is intact.
With a beta of 0.51 (half the S&P's volatility) and analyst consensus target of $231 (+71% upside from $134.64), Futu is one of the rare setups: high expected return with moderate volatility. 19 analysts, median 'strong_buy', range $193-$300. The low beta reflects the reality that Futu doesn't correlate directly with the US equity cycle — the HK retail trading market has its own dynamics.
📉 The 3 Real Bear Points
Futu's entire business model depends on Hong Kong SFC (Securities and Futures Commission) regulation. If Beijing pushes new compliance requirements on cross-border retail brokerage (like the 2023 Cross-Border Wealth Connect reforms) OR if Hong Kong comes under more China-influence pressure, margin-trading licenses could be restricted. Not acute, but the median HK risk premium of 200-300 bps reflects this tail risk.
Futu's mainland China growth comes indirectly via online marketing targeting wealthy urban customers shifting into overseas investments. If CCP authorities tighten capital controls in 2026 OR the RMB/USD rate breaks below 6.5, the funnel can halve overnight. Q4 2025 CAC was already at the lower end of the HKD 2,500 range — if it rises to HKD 4,000+, unit economics collapse.
Interactive Brokers has been aggressively expanding in Asia since 2025, Schwab launched a Singapore push in 2026, and local players like Tiger Brokers (TIGR) are direct competitors in the Chinese retail market. Futu's 5.25% short interest and 52-week position at only 33.5% show the market is skeptical whether Futu can defend its premium margins against this competition.
Valuation in Context
Futu trades at a forward P/E of 9.69× and a TTM P/E of ~13× — extremely cheap versus any US online broker comp (Schwab 18×, IBKR 22×, HOOD 28×). EV/sales of ~3.5× (revenue $21B HKD = ~$2.7B USD annualized) is also discount territory for a company with 53% revenue growth and 69% operating margin. Analyst consensus (19 analysts, unusually broad coverage): target $231.36 (range $193.13-$299.95), median 'strong_buy'. That's +71% upside from $134.64. On a re-rating to 14× P/E (still below US comps), fair value lands at $195 — also the conservative consensus. Bull case with full China-discount closure and Tencent banking synergy: $280-$310. Bear case with HK regulatory shock: $90-$110.
🗓️ Next 3 Catalyst Dates
- June 3, 2026: Q1 2026 earnings — critical test for account growth trajectory and intra-market expansion into the 8th market (likely Japan expansion)
- Q3 2026: Airstar Bank banking-license update — if Futu wins HK wealth-management custody, that's a massive margin-expansion story
- Q4 2026: Tencent strategic-position update — a renewed Tencent investment or WeChat distribution deal would be the biggest sentiment switch
💬 Daniel's Take
Futu is my personal answer to 'where's the next multi-bagger in online brokerage'. Forward P/E 9.69 at 69% operating margin is statistically absurd — either the valuation is too low or margins collapse. I'd bet on the former, because the Tencent anchor + 8-market expansion + 0.51 beta don't support the bear case. Position size for me: 2-3% of portfolio as a 5-year compound play. Stop-loss trigger: a HK regulatory headline questioning Futu's margin-trading license. Profit-take trigger: stock above $220 with Q1 and Q2 earnings beats. Anyone who bought the 2019 IPO is up ~10× — the next 10× hinges on a successful banking license and ASEAN expansion. With a 1.93% dividend on top.
Sources (3)
Disclaimer: This article is not investment advice. Investing in stocks carries risks, including total loss.
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