Eve Holding

Eve Holding Inc. (NYSE: EVEX) is a Melbourne, Florida-headquartered urban-air-mobility (UAM) company designing and producing electric-vertical-take-off-and-landing (eVTOL) vehicles. Eve was created as a 2022-SPAC-merger-spinout from Brazilian aerospace-OEM Embraer, with Embraer retaining majority-ownership (approximately 88 percent of common shares outstanding initially, diluted to approximately 84 percent by 2026). The eVTOL product (4-passenger-plus-pilot configuration, approximately 100 km range, 220 km/h cruise-speed) is designed for short-distance intra-city transport replacing helicopter-and-ground-traffic-routes. Eve plans first-flight of prototype-aircraft in late-2026 and FAA-and-ANAC type-certification through 2027–2028.

The structural thesis: (1) approximately 2.900-aircraft order-book from approximately 30 customers including United Airlines (200 aircraft), Republic Airways (200 aircraft), Falcon Aviation (35 aircraft), Helisul Aviação (50), Helijet International (50), and helicopter-fleet-operators globally; (2) Embraer engineering-and-manufacturing-infrastructure provides credible certification-and-production-scale-up pathway versus pure-startup competitors (Joby Aviation, Archer Aviation, Lilium); (3) UAM total-addressable-market forecast at approximately 9 billion USD by 2030 (Morgan Stanley estimate) growing to approximately 1 trillion USD by 2040.

Eve Holding has a structurally-controlled-shareholder-register dominated by Embraer. Embraer S.A. (NYSE: ERJ) owns approximately 84 percent of common shares — the dominant strategic-and-financial anchor. Embraer's continued majority-ownership signals long-duration strategic-conviction in eVTOL-and-UAM as a 2030–2040 growth-vertical. Bradesco Asset Management at approximately 1,9 percent and BlackRock at approximately 1,4 percent represent the largest non-Embraer institutional positions. Insider activity has been limited given the small free-float (~16 percent). Short-interest sits at approximately 8,8 percent of float as of May 2026.

Eve Holding at 2,99 USD per share with approximately 348,3 million shares outstanding has a market capitalization of approximately 1,04 billion USD. With approximately 230 million USD net-cash (post-2024 financing) and zero debt-besides-leases, enterprise value is approximately 810 million USD against zero current revenue. Eve trades on the EV-per-order-book ratio (approximately 70.000 USD per aircraft in order-book) — an industry-specific valuation-measure for pre-revenue eVTOL pure-plays.

The base-case valuation requires modeling 2030 EV-to-revenue-and-EBITDA on first-commercial-deliveries-from-2028. At consensus 2030 revenue of approximately 1,2 billion USD (300 aircraft delivered) and consensus EBITDA-margin trajectory toward approximately 12 percent, fiscal-2030 EBITDA is approximately 144 million USD. Applying a peer-aerospace-multiple of 15–20x EV/EBITDA produces a 2030 enterprise-value of approximately 2,2–2,9 billion USD, discounted at 12 percent back to 2026 produces a present-fair-value range of approximately 1,4–1,9 billion USD or 4,00–5,50 USD per share — implying approximately 35–85 percent upside. The bear-case (certification-slip, order-book-cancellations) supports a 1,50–2,20 USD range. The bull-case (first-FAA-eVTOL-certification, order-book-conversion-and-incremental-orders) supports a 6–9 USD range over 24 months.

1. 2026 Q4:

   First-flight of Eve eVTOL prototype-aircraft (scheduled late-2026 per management guidance). This is the dominant single-event in Eve's history and the structural-validation of the engineering-and-design pathway. A successful first-flight would re-rate the stock toward 4,50–5,50 USD.

2. 2027 H2:

   FAA-type-certification milestones (interim-certification-events) plus Embraer additional-strategic-funding or partnership announcements. Watch-items: flight-test-data publication, interim-certification updates, additional-customer-order announcements.

3. 2028 H1:

   Targeted first-commercial-delivery of Eve eVTOL (per management guidance, subject to type-certification timing). Successful first-commercial-delivery would unlock the order-book-conversion trajectory and support 7–10 USD price range.

Eve Holding is a structurally-controlled-Embraer-anchored eVTOL urban-air-mobility pure-play with a 2.900-aircraft order-book, type-certification pathway through 2027–2028, and asymmetric-upside-to-bullish-UAM-trajectory but material execution-risk on certification. Position-sizing: 0,2–0,6 percent allocation in a thematic-aerospace-deep-speculative sleeve, suitable only for investors with tolerance for binary certification-and-execution-outcomes and 24–48 month patience. Sizing-up zones 2,20–2,60 USD on any short-term-financing-or-certification-narrative correction.