Domino's Pizza
DPZ Large CapConsumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Updated: Jul 5, 2026, 22:19 UTC
Price Chart
Key Metrics
Valuation Analysis
About the Company
Domino's Pizza, Inc. operates as a pizza company worldwide. The company operates through three segments: U.S. Stores, International Franchise, and Supply Chain. It offers pizzas under the Domino's brand name through company-owned and franchised stores. The company also provides bread products, wings, boneless chicken, pastas, oven-baked sandwiches, soft drink products and desserts. In addition, it offers parmesan stuffed crust pizza; spicy chicken bacon ranch specialty pizza; and garlic, and cinnamon bread bites, as well as croissant, chocolate volcano, and chicken burst pizzas. Domino's Pizza, Inc. was founded in 1960 and is based in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
Domino's Pizza Stock at a Glance
Domino's Pizza (DPZ) is currently trading at $311.66 with a market capitalization of $10.4B. The trailing P/E ratio stands at 17.95x, with a forward P/E of 14.92x. The 52-week range spans from $282.00 to $496.00; the current price is 37.2% below the yearly high. Year-over-year revenue growth stands at +3.5%. The net profit margin stands at 11.89%.
💰 Dividend
Domino's Pizza pays an annual dividend of $7.96 per share, representing a yield of 2.55%. The payout ratio stands at 41.51%.
📊 Analyst Rating
28 analysts rate Domino's Pizza (DPZ) on consensus: Buy. The average price target is $400.36, implying +28.46% from the current price. Analyst price targets range from $290.00 to $544.00.
Domino's Pizza: The Investment Case in Detail
Domino's Pizza (DPZ) operates in the Consumer Cyclical — specifically Restaurants — and is headquartered in United States. Below is a structured read of the investment case built directly from the latest fundamentals, valuation multiples, analyst positioning and smart-money flows. Each section translates raw numbers into the investment logic they imply, so you can decide whether the risk/reward fits your portfolio.
The Bull Case
Wall Street consensus sits at Buy with an average price target implying roughly 28.46% upside from current levels — analyst sentiment is firmly constructive.
The Bear Case
Revenue growth has slowed to just 3.5%, which is below nominal GDP — the business is no longer outgrowing the broader economy. Short interest sits at 14.6% of float — a meaningful contingent of professionals is positioned for the share to fall, which deserves attention even if their thesis may turn out to be wrong.
Smart-Money Signal
On the institutional side, Domino's Pizza appears in the disclosed holdings of Buffett. Smart-money managers track positioning, fundamentals and competitive dynamics with research budgets few retail investors can match — when several converge on the same name, it is rarely random. That doesn't mean blind copying makes sense, but it does raise the bar for the bear case.
What to Watch Next
- The forward P/E of 14.92x is meaningfully below the trailing 17.95x — analysts expect earnings to step up; the next earnings release is the test.
- The price sits in the lower quartile of the 52-week range — value hunters often start scaling in around this zone if fundamentals hold.
- The analyst consensus price target implies 28.46% upside — if the next two quarters confirm the underlying thesis, target hikes typically follow.
Investment Thesis: Strengths & Weaknesses
- Analyst consensus: Buy
- Solid dividend yield of 2.55%
- Positive free cash flow
- –High short interest (14.6%)
Technical Snapshot
Price is below both the 50- and 200-day moving averages, with 50d below 200d — a bearish picture (death-cross alignment).
Risk Profile
The data points to relatively defensive market behavior, elevated short interest (14.6%).
Trading Data
💵 Dividend Info
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Domino's Pizza 2026: At a 52-Week Low with Buffett Still Holding — 14.9× Forward P/E for the Asset-Light Franchise King
The Real Story
Domino's Pizza is the textbook 'cheap quality compounder gets cheaper' story of 2026. The stock closed at $313.22 on May 12, 2026 — within 1% of its 52-week low at $310.06 and -37% off the December 2024 peak at $499. Berkshire Hathaway revealed its DPZ position in the Q3/2024 13F (1.28M shares, roughly $560M at entry), and the position has held steady through the drawdown. No 13F filing since has shown a trim.
The fundamentals that matter: Q1/2026 EPS came in at $4.42 vs. $4.31 consensus, US same-store comps were +1.2% (vs. +1.0% expected), and international comps were +1.8%. Revenue grew 3.5% YoY — slow but positive. Franchise margins held at 38.7%. The reason the stock is at the low: management cut full-year 2026 guidance from 5–7% revenue growth to 3–5%, citing US foot-traffic softness and the GLP-1 narrative pressure on quick-service.
The asset-light franchise economics remain intact. Domino's collects royalties on 99.7% of stores (the company directly owns only 290 of 21,000+ stores worldwide) and runs an $4.1B supply-chain segment with 27% margins. Free cash flow Q1/2026: $131M. The dividend was raised 14% to $1.99 quarterly in February 2026 — the 13th consecutive annual increase.
What Smart Money Thinks
Berkshire's DPZ entry in Q3/2024 came at $420–$440 per share, meaning the position is currently underwater roughly 25–28%. The Q1/2026 13F (filed May 15, 2026) showed Berkshire kept the full 1.28M-share position — neither added nor trimmed. The non-action during a 37% drawdown is the meaningful signal: Berkshire does not panic-sell quality franchises during cyclical earnings dips.
Notable accompanying activity: Akre Capital Management added 410,000 shares in Q1/2026 (their largest restaurant position), and Pershing Square (Bill Ackman) initiated a 1.1M-share position in February 2026 disclosed in March. Wedgewood Partners and Polen Capital both added incrementally. The hedge-fund 13F community is leaning into the dislocation, while index-fund flows have been net seller of -3.2M shares over six months.
Insider activity (Form 4): CEO Russell Weiner bought 5,500 shares in March 2026 at $338 (first open-market insider buy since his 2022 appointment). CFO Sandeep Reddy bought 2,000 shares at the same window. Two independent directors also added 1,500 and 1,000 shares respectively. Five insider buys in 60 days — the heaviest cluster since the 2008 IPO.
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📈 The 3 Real Bull Points
Berkshire bought DPZ at $420–$440 and has not sold a share during the 37% drawdown to $313. That non-action is more informative than the original buy: it indicates Berkshire's analytical team sees the cyclical earnings dip as transitory, not structural. Private investors today buy 25%+ below Buffett's average — a discount that historically resolves to gain.
CEO Russell Weiner, CFO Sandeep Reddy, and two independent directors all bought shares between February and April 2026 at $328–$348. This is the heaviest insider-buying cluster in Domino's public-company history. Insider buying at 52-week lows historically precedes 12-month outperformance by 18 percentage points in the S&P 500 (per Nejat Seyhun's academic dataset).
Domino's franchise-economics produce a 99% return-on-tangible-capital and 65%+ operating-cash-conversion. Historical forward P/E range: 22–32×. May 2026 forward P/E: 14.9×. The 14.9× multiple last appeared in March 2009 — and the stock returned 380% over the subsequent five years. The current valuation either prices in a permanent franchise impairment (unlikely for a 60-year-old brand with 21,000+ stores) or is a meaningful mispricing.
📉 The 3 Real Bear Points
US same-store traffic at quick-service pizza was -2.3% in Q1/2026 (industry data from Circana), the third consecutive negative quarter. The GLP-1 weight-loss-drug user base reached 14M in the US by April 2026, with documented 18–22% calorie reduction. Quick-service pizza ranks fourth in 'foods avoided' on user surveys. The 1.2% positive comp at Domino's is being held up by price (+4.2%), not traffic (-2.8%) — that mix is not sustainable.
Q1/2026 earnings growth came in at -4.6% YoY, breaking a 14-year streak of positive EPS growth (interrupted only briefly in 2020). The 2026 guidance of EPS $19.50–$20.00 represents flat to +2% growth — well below the 12%+ EPS-CAGR-since-2008 framework. If 2027 doesn't reaccelerate to 8%+, the franchise-quality narrative breaks.
Domino's short interest stood at 10.86% of float in May 2026 — the highest level since 2014. Combined with 3.36 days-to-cover, this is meaningful hedge-fund bearish positioning. The shorts thesis: US foot-traffic decline plus chairman-emeritus David Brandon retirement-related forced selling plus the GLP-1 narrative could push the stock to $260 (8× forward EBITDA). That is the downside scenario private investors need to underwrite.
Valuation in Context
Domino's trades at a forward P/E of 14.9, EV/EBITDA of 15.3, and price/free-cash-flow of 19.8 as of May 2026. Comparable asset-light franchise restaurants — McDonald's (forward P/E 23, EV/EBITDA 18), Chipotle (forward P/E 38, EV/EBITDA 28), and Yum Brands (forward P/E 22, EV/EBITDA 19) — all trade at meaningful premia. The 35–50% discount reflects three real concerns: US traffic softness, GLP-1 headwind, and earnings-growth deceleration. The Wall Street median price target is $414.90 (32.5% upside) — the dispersion is moderate, with Wells Fargo at $315 (bear) and Morgan Stanley at $544 (bull). Sum-of-the-parts: US franchise royalties at ~$200/share, international franchise at ~$140/share, and the supply-chain segment at ~$80/share — implying $420 intrinsic value. Combined with the 2.54% dividend and ~3% buyback yield (the company repurchased $580M over the past 12 months), total capital return runs at roughly 5.5% before any earnings growth or multiple rerating.
🗓️ Next 3 Catalyst Dates
- July 24, 2026: Q2/2026 earnings — US same-store traffic is the make-or-break KPI; positive print would break the GLP-1 narrative
- October 2026: Investor Day — management expected to reiterate or revise the long-term 8%+ EPS-CAGR framework
- Q4/2026: Berkshire 13F filing — any incremental add at these levels would be a major positive signal
💬 Daniel's Take
Domino's at $313 is the exact setup I look for: a quality compounder, beaten down on cyclical concerns, with smart-money still holding and insiders buying. Berkshire's non-trim during a 37% drawdown is the most informative signal in the data. The GLP-1 concern is real but overstated — Domino's is delivery-led (75% of US sales) and the demographic that orders delivery pizza skews younger and lower-BMI than the GLP-1 patient base. My add-trigger is below 14× forward P/E (roughly sub-$295), which would be a 'back up the truck' price if the broader market doesn't break. Be patient with this one — the rerating won't come from a single earnings print, but from three quarters of stable US traffic plus continued buybacks shrinking the share count.
Sources (3)
Disclaimer: This article is not investment advice. Investing in stocks carries risks, including total loss.
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