DHL Group

DHL Group (the former Deutsche Post) is the world's largest logistics company by revenue, operating across five divisions: Express (DHL air-express network), Global Forwarding/Freight (third-party logistics broker), Supply Chain (contract warehousing), eCommerce (parcels), and the legacy Post & Parcel Germany. The 2024-2025 narrative was painful: the post-Covid e-commerce optimization cycle plus weak transpacific freight rates compressed Express EBIT margin from 13.5% in 2022 to roughly 9% in 2025. The stock declined more than 35% from its 2021 highs. The 2026 story is the slow but credible recovery as freight rates stabilise above pre-Covid levels, and as DHL's «Strategy 2030» cost-out programme delivers visible margin improvement. CEO Tobias Meyer (who took over from Frank Appel in May 2023) has committed to €1 billion of annual cost savings by 2027 through automation, route optimization, and selective asset divestiture. FY2026 group EBIT is guided at €6.0-6.4 billion, up from €5.6 billion in 2025, with free cash flow of €3.0-3.5 billion. The dividend of €1.85 (FY2025) yields 4.6% at current prices and has been raised every year since the 2007 cash flow trough.

The smart-money base for DHL is dominated by European long-only managers attracted by stable cash flows and the defensive logistics moat. Comgest, Mawer Investment Management and Sparinvest have all held meaningful positions through the 2024-2025 drawdown. KfW (the German state development bank) retains a 16.99% blocking stake that prevents any takeover and provides strategic stability — a meaningful overhang for activists who might otherwise push for breakup. There is genuine activist interest in unlocking the Express network value: rumours surfaced in late 2025 that an unnamed US private-equity firm explored a partial spin-off proposal, but the KfW position makes this practically infeasible. The bear case from short-biased managers focuses on US-China tariff escalation impacting cross-border eCommerce volumes — DHL is the largest air-express carrier for SHEIN, Temu, and other China-to-US parcels.

DHL trades at 11.5× forward earnings and 6.8× EV/EBITDA — both modest discounts to the 10-year averages of 14× and 8.5×. The 4.6% dividend yield sits 270 basis points above the German Bund yield, the widest spread in 15 years. Free-cash-flow yield is roughly 7%. Bull case (Express margin to 12%, China volumes stabilise, cost-out delivered): €55. Base case (steady margin recovery, no major tariff shock): €47. Bear case (US de minimis closure + China volumes -25% + German regulator delays price hikes): €32.

1. August 4, 2026: H1/2026 results — first full half with stabilised freight rates; watch for Express margin trajectory and German Post regulatory commentary.
2. October 30, 2026: Q3/2026 results — peak season visibility into Q4 holiday volumes, especially China-to-US air freight commentary.
3. Throughout 2026: US de minimis policy resolution — the single largest binary catalyst for the Express segment outlook.

DHL is a classic defensive-growth name in the European logistics space. The 4.6% dividend yield plus the visible Strategy 2030 cost-out path gives meaningful downside protection while you wait for Express margin to recover. The KfW blocking stake removes activist optionality but also removes the value-destruction risk of a forced breakup. I hold a 2% portfolio position in DHL as the European logistics anchor — complementary to my Uber and FedEx exposure on the asset-light/asset-heavy axes. Where I'm cautious: the China-to-US eCommerce exposure is real and the tariff news flow will create volatility through 2026. But the operating leverage at the Express segment if rates stabilise even modestly is the under-appreciated story, and Meyer's execution against quarterly milestones has been better than the share price suggests.