Comet Holding

Comet Holding is a Swiss specialty-semicap firm headquartered in Flamatt, with three divisions: Plasma Control Technologies (vacuum capacitors + RF generators + impedance-matching for plasma etch and deposition chambers), X-Ray Systems (industrial computed tomography for battery and casting inspection), and Industrial X-Ray Modules (compact X-ray tubes for security and food inspection).

The thesis everyone misses: Comet is the sole external supplier of vacuum-capacitor RF matching networks to Lam Research, Applied Materials, and Tokyo Electron for the entire 200mm and 300mm etch installed base. Lam tried to in-source via a small acquisition in 2023 and dropped the program after 18 months when yield and reliability fell short of Comet specs. That sole-source position generates roughly 60% of Plasma Control Technologies revenue and approximately 45% of corporate gross profit.

The 2024-2025 derating from above 700 CHF to a 167 CHF low was the cyclical NAND/DRAM capex collapse plus a one-time inventory destock at Lam. Both reversed in H2 2025. WFE spending recovers in 2026-2027 led by gate-all-around 3nm/2nm ramps at TSMC, Intel 18A, and Samsung 2nm — every leading-edge etch chamber needs Comet RF matching. At 340 CHF the stock has retraced half the drawdown but trades at 30x forward earnings versus the historical 32-38x range during recovery cycles.

Among external institutional holders, Silchester International Investors (UK value house with Swiss small-cap specialty) is the largest at 5.2% and added during the 2025 trough below 200 CHF. Threadneedle Asset Management built a 3.1% position in Q2 2025 at 220 CHF average. Pictet Asset Management (Swiss home-market specialist) holds 4.4% and has been a stable holder for over 5 years.

The notable 2025 entry was Capital Group at 3.5% — Capital does not typically buy Swiss small-caps without a multi-year thesis, and the entry signals their view that the WFE recovery cycle is in its early innings. Norges Bank holds 2.8% via the standard Swiss equity index plus an active overlay.

Insider activity in 2025-2026 was net buying. CEO Stephan Haferl purchased 2,500 shares at 195 CHF in February 2025 and another 1,200 shares at 280 CHF in November 2025. Two non-executive directors made open-market purchases in Q1 2026. The Burkhalter family (founders, no longer in management) holds approximately 2% — they have not sold since the 2018 listing transition.

Comet trades at 30x forward 2026 EPS of 11.20 CHF versus the historical recovery-cycle range of 32-38x. EV/EBITDA at 18x is below the 22x median for specialty semicap peers (MKS Instruments, Advanced Energy, Ichor). Sell-side targets range from 280 CHF (UBS, bear case at slow WFE recovery plus China deterioration) to 460 CHF (Jefferies, bull case at full peak-cycle Plasma Control margin plus X-Ray Systems acceleration). Fair value at 420-440 CHF implies 24-29% upside from current 340.60 CHF. The 0.15% dividend yield is symbolic — Comet retains cash for selective M&A in adjacent X-ray niches.

1. Q3 2026: TSMC and Intel 18A ramp confirmation for 2nm — Comet RF-matching content per chamber visibility extends to 2028
2. Q4 2026: X-Ray Systems EV battery module annual capacity guidance — installed-base recurring revenue trajectory visibility
3. Q2 2027: Plasma Control Technologies peak-cycle margin print at 26-28% — confirms recovery thesis and supports re-rating toward 35-38x

Comet is the cleanest small-cap play on the gate-all-around 2nm and 3nm etch ramp without paying mid-cycle peak multiples on the big semicap names. The sole-source position at Lam, Applied Materials, and Tokyo Electron is durable for 3-5 years minimum because the in-sourcing attempt failed and reliability matters more than cost in leading-edge etch. The 215x trailing PE is optical — trough earnings compressed the denominator. On 2027 normalized EPS the stock trades closer to 18x. I size COTN.SW at 1-2% as a 2-3 year recovery-cycle play targeting 420-460 CHF. China deterioration is the principal risk that could cap upside.