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Certara

CERT Small Cap

Healthcare · Health Information Services

Updated: May 22, 2026, 22:06 UTC

$5.24
+1.35% today
52W: $4.45 – $13.88
52W Low: $4.45 Position: 8.4% 52W High: $13.88

Key Metrics

P/E Ratio
—
Price-to-Earnings
Forward P/E
12.68x
Forward Price/Earnings
P/S Ratio
1.94x
Price-to-Sales
EV/EBITDA
10.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA
Div. Yield
—
Annual dividend yield
Market Cap
$815.2M
Market Capitalization
Revenue Growth
0.9%
YoY Revenue Growth
Profit Margin
-3.6%
Net profit margin
ROE
-1.44%
Return on Equity
Beta
1.53
Market sensitivity
Short Interest
24.57%
% of float sold short
Avg. Volume
3,896,853
Average daily volume

Valuation Analysis

Signal
N/A
vs. S&P 500 avg P/E (24.7x)
Analyst Consensus
Buy
11 analysts
Avg. Price Target
$7.62
+45.39% upside
Target Range
$6.00 – $10.00

About the Company

Certara, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides technology-driven services and software products for biosimulation in drug discovery, preclinical and clinical research, regulatory submissions, and market access in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia Pacific. It offers model-informed drug development solutions; biosimulation solutions to predict pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics; Simcyp simulator, a mechanistic biosimulation platform for physiologically based pharmacokinetic simulation; Simcyp Discovery for scientists working on pre-investigational new drug and translational stages; Simcyp Biopharmaceutics for formulation scientists; and Simcyp Secondary Intelligence that integrates toxicology with quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and func

Sector: Healthcare Industry: Health Information Services Country: United States Employees: 1,515 Exchange: NMS

Certara Stock at a Glance

Certara (CERT) is currently trading at $5.24 with a market capitalization of $815.2M. The 52-week range spans from $4.45 to $13.88; the current price is 62.2% below the yearly high. Year-over-year revenue growth stands at +0.9%.

💰 Dividend

Certara currently does not pay a dividend. The company typically reinvests its earnings into growth initiatives and product development.

📊 Analyst Rating

11 analysts rate Certara (CERT) on consensus: Buy. The average price target is $7.62, implying +45.39% from the current price. Analyst price targets range from $6.00 to $10.00.

Investment Thesis: Strengths & Weaknesses

Strengths
  • High gross margin of 61.59% — indicates pricing power
  • Analyst consensus: Buy
  • Solid balance sheet with low debt (D/E 29.95)
  • Positive free cash flow
Weaknesses
  • –Currently unprofitable
  • –High short interest (24.57%)

Technical Snapshot

50-Day MA
$5.84
-10.27% vs. price
200-Day MA
$8.81
-40.52% vs. price
Below 52W High
−62.2%
$13.88
Above 52W Low
+17.8%
$4.45

Price is below both the 50- and 200-day moving averages, with 50d below 200d — a bearish picture (death-cross alignment).

Risk Profile

Market Risk (Beta)
1.53 · Elevated
Moves more than the overall market
Short Interest
24.57% · High
% of float sold short
Debt-to-Equity
29.95 · Low
Total debt / equity

The data points to above-average price swings, elevated short interest (24.57%).

Trading Data

50-Day MA: $5.84
200-Day MA: $8.81
Volume: 3,614,447
Avg. Volume: 3,896,853
Short Ratio: 6.21
P/B Ratio: 0.79x
Debt/Equity: 29.95x
Free Cash Flow: $116.6M

Certara (CERT) 2026: 4,48 USD US Biosimulation-Software Specialist at 0,67x P/B Deep-Value with Phoenix Pharmacokinetics Platform, FDA Model-Informed-Drug-Development Tailwind

The Real Story

Certara Inc. (NASDAQ: CERT) is a Radnor, Pennsylvania-headquartered biosimulation-software-and-services specialist providing technology-driven solutions for drug-discovery, preclinical-and-clinical-research, regulatory-submissions, and market-access. Lead platforms: Phoenix pharmacokinetics-and-pharmacodynamics modeling, Simulx trial-simulation, INSITE evidence-based-clinical-trial-strategy, Cresta regulatory-submissions. Customer base includes all top-20 global-pharma plus 1.500+ pharma-and-biotech clients.

Structural tailwind: FDA's model-informed-drug-development (MIDD) guidance pushes biosimulation adoption in regulatory submissions. EMA and PMDA following similar paths. 2024-2025: post-COVID-pharma-R&D-spending-normalization compressed near-term growth but structural-adoption tailwind continues.

What Smart Money Thinks

Certara has institutional base. EQT Partners (private equity sponsor since 2017) holds approximately 26 percent — strategic anchor. Arsenal Capital Partners also retains stake. BlackRock at approximately 6,2 percent, Vanguard at approximately 5,4 percent. Short-interest sits at approximately 9 percent of float as of May 2026.

Explore the BMI Smart-Money Tracker →

📈 The 3 Real Bull Points

#1 FDA Model-Informed-Drug-Development guidance creates structural biosimulation-adoption tailwind

FDA MIDD guidance (Generic Drug User Fee Amendments etc.) plus EMA-and-PMDA similar pathways push biosimulation-adoption in regulatory submissions. Approximately 60-70 percent of FDA NDA submissions now include biosimulation-modeling, up from approximately 25-30 percent in 2018.

#2 Recurring-software subscription model 65 percent of revenue provides defensive base

Approximately 65 percent of revenue is recurring-software-subscription (Phoenix, Simulx, etc.) with high-net-revenue-retention. Defensive recurring base provides cash-flow stability.

#3 0,67x P/B deep-value reflects post-COVID-pharma-R&D-normalization — re-rating supports 50-100 percent upside

Certara's 0,67x P/B reflects post-COVID growth-deceleration skepticism. Re-rating to 1,2-1,5x P/B on FDA-MIDD-adoption acceleration supports 8-10 USD share-price range.

📉 The 3 Real Bear Points

#1 Pharma-R&D budget pressure plus biotech-funding-winter compresses customer-spending

Continued pharma-R&D-budget-pressure plus biotech-funding-winter compresses Certara customer-pipeline-spending. If pharma-spending-pressure extends 2026-2027, growth-trajectory could compress.

#2 Competitive pressure from Simulations Plus, OpenAI-and-LLM-drug-discovery startups

Simulations Plus (NASDAQ: SLP) plus emerging LLM-and-AI-drug-discovery startups create competitive-pressure on Certara's biosimulation-software positioning.

#3 EQT Partners 26 percent stake creates eventual exit-overhang on share price

EQT Partners' 26 percent stake will eventually be divested. Forced-or-discounted-secondary-placement risk persists.

Valuation in Context

Certara at 4,48 USD per share with approximately 155,6 million shares outstanding has a market capitalization of approximately 697 million USD. With approximately 130 million USD net-debt, enterprise value approximately 825 million USD against trailing-twelve-month revenue of approximately 385 million USD (2,1x EV/sales).

On forward-earnings, Certara trades at approximately 11x consensus fiscal-2026 EPS approximately 0,41 USD. Re-rating to 18-22x on fiscal-2027 EPS approximately 0,55 USD supports 10-12 USD price range — 125-170 percent upside. Bear-case 2,80-3,20 USD. Bull-case 14-17 USD.

🗓️ Next 3 Catalyst Dates

  1. 2026 Q3:

    Q2 2026 earnings. Watch-items: software-subscription growth, FDA-MIDD-momentum, customer-pipeline.

  2. 2027 Q1:

    Fiscal-2026 full-year results plus 2027 guidance.

  3. 2027 H2:

    Continued FDA-MIDD-adoption milestones plus EQT-exit progression.

💬 Daniel's Take

Certara is a deep-value US biosimulation-software specialist with FDA-MIDD-structural-tailwind, 65 percent recurring-subscription base, EQT-PE-strategic-anchor and 0,67x P/B deep-discount. Position-sizing: 0,5–1,2 percent in deep-value-tech-quality sleeve.

Sources (3)

Disclaimer: This article is not investment advice. Investing in stocks carries risks, including total loss.

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