BMW

BMW is navigating the toughest period for European autos since the financial crisis in 2026 — and still doing it better than any peer. Q1/2026 group numbers: deliveries +3.9% YoY (623k units), automotive EBIT margin at 8.1% — above the company's own 8–10% guidance and well ahead of Mercedes-Benz (6.3%) and Volkswagen (3.9%).

The structural 2026 story is the Neue Klasse: BMW's purpose-built EV skateboard platform, whose first series model — the iX3 (production code G45) — ships in summer 2026 with roughly 800 km WLTP range and 800-volt architecture. This is the most important platform bet for the next decade: four additional models (i3 sedan, i4 touring, X3 EV restyle, Mini Aceman) follow in 2027/28.

The market is underestimating two things in 2026: (1) BMW's multi-technology strategy — unlike Mercedes, BMW continues to build ICE, PHEV, and EV in parallel on shared platforms, stabilizing plant utilization; (2) the M Performance line delivers consistent 18%+ operating margins and underpins the group mix. On dividends, management plans to raise the 2025 payout to €6.50 (from €6.00 for 2024) — a 7.2% yield on the current share price.

The institutional picture is unusually stable given the industry backdrop: the Quandt/Klatten family still holds 44.3% of the ordinary shares directly and through JOHANNA QUANDT GmbH — a non-tradable block that effectively halves the free float. BlackRock sits at 4.1% (from 3.7%), Vanguard stable at 2.9%, Norges Bank at 1.1%.

Notable mover: Capital Group added 18% to its position in Q1/2026, with the thesis that ‘BMW is the only European OEM that can deliver volume, margin, and dividend discipline at once’. No notable short interest — even Bernstein, perennially bearish on European autos, upgraded BMW to Outperform in March 2026.

BMW trades at 5.9× 2026 P/E and 2.1× automotive segment EV/EBITDA (4.2× including Financial Services). Both multiples sit in the bottom decile of the 10-year range. Dividend yield is 7.2% on the €6.50 plan. SOTP analysts value Auto at 2.5× EBIT (€45B), Motorcycles at €2.0B, Financial Services at 1.1× book (€15B) — €62B EV in total, minus €12B of automotive net cash = €74B of equity, ~€116 per share. The current price (~€90) is 22% below SOTP — typical BMW holding discount that widens to 30% in EV transition phases.

1. July 2026: iX3 (first Neue Klasse launch) deliveries begin. First real range/charging tests versus Mercedes EQE, Tesla Model Y, Lucid Air.
2. September 2026: Q3/2026 earnings with refreshed 2026 margin target. Consensus expects 8.0–8.5% automotive EBIT margin reaffirmed; upside risk on stable China mix.
3. March 2027: AGM with €6.50/share dividend vote (planned). Confirmation of the raise should trigger multiple expansion toward 7× P/E.

BMW is my preferred European auto pick and one of the best dividend trades in the DAX 2026. A 7.2% yield plus Neue Klasse optionality plus relative strength versus VW/Mercedes gives a clean risk/reward asymmetry. I run a 4% portfolio weight via monthly DCA and reinvest the dividend. If you distrust European autos generally, BMW offers the lowest vol and strongest balance sheet — if you want to avoid the sector entirely, Toyota or Hyundai are cleaner.