Bloomin Brands
BLMN Small CapConsumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Updated: Jul 6, 2026, 22:20 UTC
Price Chart
Key Metrics
Valuation Analysis
About the Company
Bloomin' Brands, Inc., through its subsidiaries, owns and operates casual, polished casual, and fine dining restaurants in the United States and internationally. The company operates through U.S. and International Franchise segments. Its restaurant portfolio has four concepts, including Outback Steakhouse, a casual steakhouse restaurant; Carrabba's Italian Grill that offers authentic Italian cuisine; Bonefish Grill; and Fleming's Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar, a contemporary steakhouse. Bloomin' Brands, Inc. was founded in 1988 and is based in Tampa, Florida.
Bloomin Brands Stock at a Glance
Bloomin Brands (BLMN) is currently trading at $8.04 with a market capitalization of $688.3M. The trailing P/E ratio stands at 33.5x, with a forward P/E of 8.31x. The 52-week range spans from $5.19 to $10.70; the current price is 24.9% below the yearly high. Year-over-year revenue growth stands at +1.0%. The net profit margin stands at 0.55%.
💰 Dividend
Bloomin Brands pays an annual dividend of $0.60 per share, representing a yield of 7.46%. The payout ratio stands at 125%. The elevated payout ratio reflects a mature dividend policy.
📊 Analyst Rating
11 analysts rate Bloomin Brands (BLMN) on consensus: Hold. The average price target is $8.61, implying +7.08% from the current price. Analyst price targets range from $6.00 to $11.00.
Bloomin Brands: The Investment Case in Detail
Bloomin Brands (BLMN) operates in the Consumer Cyclical — specifically Restaurants — and is headquartered in United States. Below is a structured read of the investment case built directly from the latest fundamentals, valuation multiples, analyst positioning and smart-money flows. Each section translates raw numbers into the investment logic they imply, so you can decide whether the risk/reward fits your portfolio.
The Bull Case
Earnings growth of 29.9% is outpacing revenue, a sign of operational leverage — fixed costs are being absorbed across a larger base.
The Bear Case
Revenue growth has slowed to just 1%, which is below nominal GDP — the business is no longer outgrowing the broader economy. With a net margin of just 0.55%, the business has little room to absorb cost shocks or pricing pressure — a single bad quarter can swing the company to a loss. The debt-to-equity ratio of 497.34% is elevated, meaning the company relies heavily on creditors — refinancing terms will become more important than operational performance in the next economic downturn.
Valuation in Context
The EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.74x is below the historical equity-market average — strategic acquirers would find the cash-flow profile attractive at this level.
What to Watch Next
- The forward P/E of 8.31x is meaningfully below the trailing 33.5x — analysts expect earnings to step up; the next earnings release is the test.
Investment Thesis: Strengths & Weaknesses
- Solid dividend yield of 7.46%
- Positive free cash flow
- –Low profitability (0.55% margin)
- –Currently flagged as overvalued
- –High leverage (D/E 497.34)
Technical Snapshot
Price trades above both the 50- and 200-day moving averages, with 50d above 200d — a classic bullish setup (golden-cross alignment).
Risk Profile
The data points to market-like volatility, elevated short interest (9.79%), higher leverage relative to equity.
Trading Data
💵 Dividend Info
Related Stocks in the Same Sector
Bloomin' Brands (BLMN) 2026: 8,04 USD US Casual-Dining Restaurant-Operator Deep-Value at 8,2x Forward Earnings, 7,46 Percent Dividend and Starboard-Value Activist Engagement
The Real Story
Bloomin' Brands Inc. (NASDAQ: BLMN) is a Tampa, Florida-headquartered casual-dining-restaurant-operator owning the Outback Steakhouse (approximately 60 percent of company-restaurants), Carrabba's Italian Grill, Bonefish Grill, Fleming's Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar, and Aussie Grill brands. Approximately 1.450 restaurant-locations (approximately 1.100 US-and-Canada, 350 international primarily Brazil).
The 2024–2025 strategic-pivot under CEO Mike Spanos (appointed September 2024) focuses on: Brazil-segment-strategic-review (sale-process announced 2024 with Vinci Partners pre-emptive bid, ultimately negotiated minority-stake-sale), cost-base-rationalization (approximately 80 million USD annual run-rate), menu-pricing-and-promotion-optimization, and capital-allocation-pivot toward shareholder-returns. Starboard Value disclosed approximately 9,7 percent stake in 2023 as activist-engagement on capital-allocation and strategic-direction.
What Smart Money Thinks
Bloomin' Brands has activist-and-yield-investor base. Starboard Value at approximately 9,7 percent — Jeff Smith's activist firm with track record at Olive Garden parent Darden, Box, and others. BlackRock at approximately 8,1 percent, Vanguard at approximately 11,3 percent represent passive flows. Insider activity: CEO Mike Spanos purchased approximately 200.000 USD of shares in Q1 2025 at average price below 13 USD. Short-interest sits at approximately 11 percent of float as of May 2026.
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📈 The 3 Real Bull Points
Bloomin's 7,46 percent dividend yield (annual payout approximately 0,60 USD per share) plus active share-buyback program returns approximately 12-14 percent annual capital. Capital-return supports share-price structural-defense through cycle-trough.
Starboard's 9,7 percent activist stake plus the deep 8,2x forward earnings valuation creates structural-strategic-review optionality. Starboard has been pushing for portfolio-rationalization, Brazil-monetization, and capital-allocation-discipline.
The 2024 Brazil-minority-stake-sale plus cost-base-rationalization of approximately 80 million USD annual run-rate plus menu-pricing optimization supports 2026-2027 EBITDA-inflection from approximately 240 million USD in 2024 toward 320-380 million USD by 2027.
📉 The 3 Real Bear Points
The structural-decline in US casual-dining-segment traffic (approximately 1-3 percent annual same-store-sales-decline industry-wide) continues to compress Bloomin's revenue trajectory. If casual-dining-shift-to-fast-casual accelerates, Bloomin's volume-decline could compress further.
Bloomin's casual-dining revenue is structurally consumer-discretionary-spending-correlated. A renewed consumer recession 2026-2027 would compress fiscal-2026 EBITDA 20-30 percent.
Persistent labor-cost-inflation (approximately 5-7 percent annually) plus food-cost-volatility (beef, seafood) compress operating margins. If margin-pressure continues, capital-return-trajectory could compress.
Valuation in Context
Bloomin' at 8,04 USD per share with approximately 85,6 million shares outstanding has a market capitalization of approximately 688 million USD. With approximately 1,1 billion USD net-debt-and-lease-obligations, enterprise value is approximately 1,8 billion USD against trailing-twelve-month revenue of approximately 4,3 billion USD (approximately 0,4x EV/sales).
On forward-earnings, Bloomin' trades at approximately 8,2x consensus fiscal-2026 EPS of approximately 0,98 USD. Applying peer-blended fair-multiple of 11-14x to fiscal-2027 EPS of approximately 1,30 USD produces fair-value range 14-18 USD per share — 75-125 percent upside. Bear-case 5-6 USD. Bull-case (Starboard-engagement-driven strategic-review, Brazil-monetization, cost-cuts-deliver) 20-26 USD over 24-36 months. 7,46 percent dividend.
🗓️ Next 3 Catalyst Dates
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2026 Q3:
Q2 2026 earnings (early August 2026). Watch-items: comparable-restaurant-sales, Brazil-segment-update, cost-rationalization progression.
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2026 Q4:
Q3 2026 earnings (early November 2026) plus fiscal-2027 preliminary guidance.
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2027 Q1:
Fiscal-2026 full-year results plus fiscal-2027 guidance. Bullish 1,30+ USD EPS guidance plus Starboard-strategic-review-resolution would unlock 14-18 USD range.
💬 Daniel's Take
Bloomin' Brands is a deep-value US casual-dining-restaurant-operator with Starboard-Value-activist-engagement, 7,46 percent dividend yield, Brazil-monetization-progression, cost-rationalization execution, and 8,2x forward earnings deep-value valuation. Position-sizing: 0,8–1,5 percent in deep-value-cyclical-restaurant-special-situation sleeve, 18–36 month patience.
Sources (3)
Disclaimer: This article is not investment advice. Investing in stocks carries risks, including total loss.
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