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Bavarian Nordic
BAVA.CO Large CapHealthcare · Biotechnology
Updated: May 22, 2026, 22:06 UTC
Key Metrics
Valuation Analysis
About the Company
Bavarian Nordic A/S develops, manufactures, and supplies life-saving vaccines. The company offers non-replicating smallpox and monkeypox vaccines under the IMVAMUNE, IMVANEX, and JYNNEOS names; rabies vaccine for human use under the Rabipur/RabAvert name; tick-borne encephalitis vaccine under the Encepur name; Vaxchora, an oral vaccine for immunization against cholera; and Vivotif/Typhoral, an oral vaccine for immunization against typhoid fever. It is also developing MVA-BN WEV, that is in phase 2 trial for the treatment of encephalitis viruses. It operates in the United States, Denmark, Canada, France, Germany, Singapore, England, Finland, Switzerland, Japan, Austria, Italy, Spain, Taiwan, Saudi Arabia, Australia, and internationally. Bavarian Nordic A/S was incorporated in 1992 and is he
Bavarian Nordic Stock at a Glance
Bavarian Nordic (BAVA.CO) is currently trading at $197.00 with a market capitalization of $15.1B. The trailing P/E ratio stands at 13.06x, with a forward P/E of 18.46x. The 52-week range spans from $164.05 to $244.80; the current price is 19.5% below the yearly high. Year-over-year revenue growth stands at -21.4%. The net profit margin stands at 19.71%.
💰 Dividend
Bavarian Nordic currently does not pay a dividend. The company typically reinvests its earnings into growth initiatives and product development.
📊 Analyst Rating
3 analysts rate Bavarian Nordic (BAVA.CO) on consensus: Strong Buy. The average price target is $273.33, implying +38.75% from the current price. Analyst price targets range from $260.00 to $280.00.
Investment Thesis: Strengths & Weaknesses
- Analyst consensus: Strong Buy
- Currently flagged as undervalued
- Solid balance sheet with low debt (D/E 1.1)
- –Revenue shrinking (-21.4% YoY)
- –Negative free cash flow
Technical Snapshot
The price is in a transition zone relative to the moving averages — no clear signal.
Risk Profile
The data points to relatively defensive market behavior.
Trading Data
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Bavarian Nordic 2026: Post-Mpox Normalization, Travel-Health Compounder and the Vimkunya Roll-Out
The Real Story
Bavarian Nordic is probably the most misunderstood healthcare stock on the Copenhagen exchange in 2026. The Danish vaccine specialist reported Q1 2026 revenue of DKK 1,058M on May 13 — with two very different stories in one earnings release: Travel Health DKK 721M (+14% YoY, driven by rabies and the chikungunya launch) versus Public Preparedness DKK 294M (-53% YoY, because 2026 is a normalized year without mpox outbreak windfall revenue).
The bear-case shouter focuses on the -53% crash in Public Preparedness — forgetting that the mpox spike revenues of 2024/25 were never repeatable. What remains is a structural vaccine business with three legs: (1) travel-health compounding with Rabipur (rabies), Encepur (TBE), and now Vimkunya (chikungunya); (2) a strategic US government contract for JYNNEOS smallpox/mpox vaccine (BARDA exercised an additional $97M option in May 2026); (3) an RSV/cancer vaccine pipeline.
Vimkunya is the key trigger in 2026: the first FDA-approved single-dose chikungunya vaccine for travelers, launched in Benelux in Q1, planned Switzerland launch in Q2, plus strategic partnerships in India and Brazil. The global chikungunya market TAM is estimated at $400-500M/year — if Vimkunya captures 50% share, that's DKK 1.2-1.5B of incremental revenue from one product alone.
What Smart Money Thinks
Bavarian Nordic is listed on the Danish OMX and therefore not in the classic US 13F universe. The institutional anchor structure is Nordic: Capital Research and Management (Capital Group) holds ~10%, BlackRock ~5%, ATP (Danish state pension fund) ~4%, Skandia Asset Management ~3%. Plus US healthcare specialists: OrbiMed and RA Capital Management are visible in 13F filings as significant holders — both have been buying Bavarian continuously since 2022 (the mpox spike), not selling.
The most relevant smart-money data point: BARDA (US Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority) exercised an additional $97M option on the JYNNEOS vaccine in May 2026. That is effectively a 'US government investment vote' — BARDA contracts are considered the ultimate validation for pandemic preparedness vaccines in the healthcare industry. JYNNEOS has accumulated ~$2B in BARDA contracts since 2003.
Insider activity: CEO Paul Chaplin and CFO Henrik Juuel made no unusual sales in 2025/26. Luc Debruyne (ex-GSK global vaccines head) sits on the supervisory board — his presence is a quality signal for the strategic direction.
Explore the BMI Smart-Money Tracker →
📈 The 3 Real Bull Points
Vimkunya is the first FDA-approved single-dose chikungunya vaccine. The only competing product currently is Valneva's IXCHIQ (multi-dose, higher side-effect profile). Bavarian Nordic has roll-out in Benelux Q1 2026, Switzerland Q2 2026, Italy/Spain/UK H2 2026, plus India/Brazil partnerships for the largest endemic regions. At a conservative 40% market-share target and $80/dose global pricing, that's DKK 800-1,000M of additional annualized revenue by 2028 — almost a +20% revenue boost on the current run-rate business.
The BARDA option exercise of $97M in May 2026 is part of a multi-year $300-400M frame contract. JYNNEOS is the only FDA-approved smallpox/mpox single-dose vaccine (the competitor ACAM2000 was removed from the Strategic National Stockpile in 2024 for safety reasons). That makes Bavarian Nordic the monopoly US government counterparty for smallpox pandemic preparedness. Plus: EMA expansion for children 2-11 is expected for H2 2026, opening the European pediatric market.
Despite only 3 covering analysts, consensus target is DKK 271.67 with a range of DKK 260-280 — and median 'strong_buy'. That's +44% upside from the current DKK 188.30. At a forward P/E of 17.24× — historically in the 25th percentile for Bavarian Nordic — the market is pricing the mpox normalization as permanent. If Vimkunya closes the revenue gap in 2026/27 AND BARDA orders keep flowing, a re-rating to 25× P/E is realistic (= +45% upside, matches consensus).
📉 The 3 Real Bear Points
Public Preparedness revenue fell 53% YoY in Q1 2026 because mpox outbreak-related emergency orders from 2024/25 are not repeatable. Even with the BARDA contract and the EMA pediatric extension, Public Preparedness will do ~DKK 1.2-1.5B in 2026 (vs. DKK 3+B in 2024). Management has to show that Travel Health fills that gap — and that will take 18-24 months.
Q1 2026 operating margin was negative (-0.66%) showing how much of mpox-spike margins were structural vs. cyclical. With normal Q1 seasonality (Travel Health is H2-heavy because of summer/winter travel seasons) this should recover in H2 2026 — but if Vimkunya launch costs are higher than expected OR a product recall happens, margins stay below normalized for 18 months.
Valneva (VLA1553 / IXCHIQ) also has an FDA-approved chikungunya vaccine and is already available in some EU markets. If Valneva outflanks Vimkunya on pricing or distribution reach, Bavarian's first-mover advantage shrinks. Also: Bavarian's RSV vaccine program (MVA-BN RSV) is Phase 3, but competition from GSK (Arexvy), Pfizer (Abrysvo), and Moderna (mRESVIA) is already on the market — Bavarian is late there.
Valuation in Context
Bavarian Nordic trades at a trailing P/E of 12.47×, forward P/E 17.24×, EV/EBITDA of 8.75×, and PEG of 1.87. EV/sales of ~2.4× is cheap for European biotech. Sum-of-parts: Travel Health segment EBITDA ~DKK 800M/year × 12× multiple = DKK 9.6B. Public Preparedness run-rate EBITDA ~DKK 400M/year × 8× = DKK 3.2B (lower multiple due to government customer concentration). Vimkunya potential NPV: DKK 4-5B (risk-adjusted, 15-year patent). Sum: DKK 16-18B — vs. current market cap of DKK 14.4B. With only 3 covering analysts, consensus coverage is thin, but median 'strong_buy' at DKK 271.67 (+44% upside) matches the SOTP. Bull case (Vimkunya >50% share + EMA pediatric approval + RSV Phase 3 success): DKK 320-340. Bear case (Vimkunya competition crowds in + BARDA contract not extended): DKK 130-150.
🗓️ Next 3 Catalyst Dates
- Q3 2026: EMA pediatric approval for JYNNEOS children 2-11 — opens European pediatric mpox market + $25-35M additional government orders
- Summer 2026: Vimkunya Switzerland launch + first Italy/Spain availability — travel-health season peak, best sales realization
- Q4 2026 or Q1 2027: RSV vaccine Phase 3 topline data — if efficacy is comparable to GSK/Pfizer/Moderna, that would open the next cash-cow story
💬 Daniel's Take
Bavarian Nordic is, for me, a classic post-pandemic normalization story with overlooked compound optionality in 2026. The mpox-spike crash made the market panic — but the structural travel-health business is growing +14% organically, and Vimkunya can kick off a real second growth wave. My add-trigger is stock below DKK 175 (additional 7% discount). My profit-take trigger is DKK 250+. Position size: 1.5-2% because of single-country risk and pipeline concentration. Beta 0.95 is reassuring for a biotech. For healthcare long-term compound investors, an under-the-radar candidate — no one talks about BAVA on Wall Street, which is exactly why it's interesting.
Sources (3)
Disclaimer: This article is not investment advice. Investing in stocks carries risks, including total loss.
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