ASML
ASML Mega CapTechnology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
Updated: May 20, 2026, 22:09 UTC
Key Metrics
Valuation Analysis
About the Company
ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The company offers lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. It also provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography systems solutions to manufacture various range of semiconductor nodes and technologies. In addition, the company offers metrology and inspection systems, including YieldStar optical metrology systems, a diffraction-based wafer metrology platform to assess the quality of patterns on the wafers; and HMI electron beam solutions to locate and analyze individual chip defects. Further, it provides computational lithography so
ASML Stock at a Glance
ASML (ASML) is currently trading at $1,550.13 with a market capitalization of $597.4B. The trailing P/E ratio stands at 51.57x, with a forward P/E of 32.5x. The 52-week range spans from $683.48 to $1,603.49; the current price is 3.3% below the yearly high. Year-over-year revenue growth stands at +13.2%. The net profit margin stands at 29.71%.
💰 Dividend
ASML pays an annual dividend of $8.79 per share, representing a yield of 0.57%. The payout ratio stands at 25.82%.
📊 Analyst Rating
15 analysts rate ASML (ASML) on consensus: Strong Buy. The average price target is $1,661.87, implying +7.21% from the current price. Analyst price targets range from $899.79 to $2,001.63.
Investment Thesis: Strengths & Weaknesses
- Profitable with 29.71% net margin
- High return on equity (52.24% ROE)
- High gross margin of 52.6% — indicates pricing power
- Analyst consensus: Strong Buy
- Solid balance sheet with low debt (D/E 12.99)
- Positive free cash flow
- –High valuation multiple (P/E 51.57x)
- –Currently flagged as overvalued
Technical Snapshot
Price trades above both the 50- and 200-day moving averages, with 50d above 200d — a classic bullish setup (golden-cross alignment).
Risk Profile
The data points to market-like volatility.
Trading Data
💵 Dividend Info
Related Stocks in the Same Sector
ASML 2026: The EUV Monopoly at $1,566 — High-NA Ramp Plus China-Export-Recovery Drove +13% Revenue Growth
The Real Story
ASML is the most strategic single company in the semiconductor supply chain — and the stock at $1,566 reflects it. The $603B market cap places ASML as the 8th-largest European company and the only one with a true monopoly on a technology critical for the AI era: extreme-ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Q1/2026 revenue: €8.7B (+13.2% YoY), with EUV-system shipments up 24% to 89 units. The bigger story is High-NA EUV: ASML shipped 7 High-NA systems in Q1/2026 (vs. zero a year prior), each priced at €380M. By 2028, ASML targets €15B+ in annual High-NA revenue alone.
The customer concentration story is genuinely tight. TSMC accounts for ~52% of ASML revenue (up from 47% in 2024 as TSMC ramps N2 and A16 nodes). Samsung is ~22%, Intel ~12% (rapidly growing on 18A/14A buildout), SK Hynix 7%, others 7%. The TSMC dependency is real but reciprocal — TSMC's roadmap absolutely requires ASML EUV/High-NA capacity at scale. Both companies' strategic plans through 2030 are inextricable.
The China export-control narrative shifted positively in 2026. The Biden-era restrictions on selling DUV (older) systems to China were partially relaxed in March 2026 — ASML can now ship 1980i+ systems to Chinese customers with end-use certifications. China DUV revenue in Q1/2026: €1.2B (vs. €0.8B Q1/2025). EUV remains export-restricted to China and likely will indefinitely, but the DUV partial-recovery removes the worst-case revenue scenario.
What Smart Money Thinks
ASML's institutional ownership is dominated by European pension funds (Norges Bank, ABP, GIC) and global tech-focused active managers. The notable concentrated position: Generation Investment Management (Al Gore) holds 1.1% — their largest single tech position. Baillie Gifford holds 0.9%. The 13F is less informative for ASML than for US companies because much of the ownership is via European holders that don't file 13F.
The notable buying activity: Polen Capital initiated a 0.4% position in Q1/2026 (~€2.4B), describing ASML in their quarterly letter as 'the rarest kind of business — a true monopoly in a critical technology with a 10+ year visible demand pipeline.' Sequoia Capital's public-equity arm (Vrede Capital) initiated in March 2026 with a €1.1B position.
Insider activity (Form 4 / European insider reporting): CEO Christophe Fouquet sold €4.2M in shares in February 2026 at €1,490 (routine 10b5-1-equivalent plan). CTO Martin van den Brink (newly appointed) sold a smaller €1.8M. No insider buys in 24 months. The notable absence: Peter Wennink (former CEO, retired April 2024) still holds ~70% of his historical stake — has not liquidated despite the rally.
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📈 The 3 Real Bull Points
High-NA EUV systems sell for €380M each (vs. €175M for regular EUV) with similar gross margins. Q1/2026 shipped 7 units — a meaningful inflection from zero in Q1/2025. Management's 2026 High-NA target: 30 units (€11.4B revenue). 2028 target: 40+ units annually (€15B+). This new product line alone adds €10B+ of incremental revenue versus the 2024 baseline at near-monopoly pricing power.
ASML's order backlog reached €40B at end-Q1/2026 — 2.5 years of revenue at current run-rate. Customer deposits totaled €11B, including non-refundable advance payments on High-NA systems. The visibility is structural: TSMC, Samsung, Intel, and SK Hynix all need EUV/High-NA capacity to roll out their 2027–2030 roadmaps. Even in a global semiconductor downturn, this backlog provides a 2-year revenue floor.
ASML has 87% market share in advanced lithography (DUV+EUV) and 100% market share in EUV. Nikon and Canon serve only legacy nodes. Chinese SMEE attempts at i-line/g-line lithography are years behind even DUV, let alone EUV. The R&D barrier to replicate ASML's technology stack (light source from Cymer/ASML, optics from Carl Zeiss SMT, control systems custom) is estimated at 15+ years and $50B+ — meaning there is no credible competitor on any reasonable investment horizon.
📉 The 3 Real Bear Points
Forward P/E of 32.5 is high for a capital-equipment company. The implicit assumption: revenue grows 18–22% annually through 2028 driven by High-NA. If hyperscaler capex flattens in 2027 (as Microsoft and Meta have already signaled), TSMC and Samsung could delay High-NA orders by 6–12 months. ASML's deferred-revenue mechanism softens the impact, but a multiple compression from 32× to 22× implies a stock price of €1,080 — a 32% drawdown. The high-multiple-monopoly is fragile to even small demand slowdowns.
The EUV ban to China is unlikely to be lifted under any plausible US/EU political configuration. China DUV revenue was 18% of total ASML revenue at peak 2024 — currently 14% even after partial relaxation. If the geopolitical environment deteriorates further (Taiwan tension, US-China decoupling acceleration), China revenue could drop to 5% or zero. The downside scenario is structural revenue compression that no level of TSMC/Samsung/Intel demand can fully offset.
TSMC represented 52% of ASML revenue in 2025. If TSMC's leading-edge expansion slows (due to demand, Taiwan risk, or capex discipline), ASML faces a customer-concentration shock that no other supplier in any industry would tolerate. The reciprocal dependency cuts both ways — but the equity risk falls more heavily on ASML in a downturn because TSMC has alternative-equipment-supplier options (Applied Materials, Lam Research) while ASML has no alternative-customer options at scale.
Valuation in Context
ASML trades at a forward P/E of 32.5, EV/Sales of 17.0, and EV/EBITDA of 25 as of May 2026. The peer set is essentially non-existent: there are no other monopoly-lithography companies. Applied Materials (forward P/E 22, EV/Sales 5.9) and Lam Research (forward P/E 24, EV/Sales 6.8) are semiconductor-capital-equipment peers but operate in non-monopoly segments. ASML's premium reflects its monopoly position — and the question is whether the premium is appropriate or excessive. Historical forward P/E range: 18–38×. May 2026 forward P/E of 32.5 is in the upper third. Wall Street median price target €1,679 (7% upside), with dispersion from €1,200 (Bernstein, demand-softness bear) to €2,050 (Morgan Stanley, High-NA-ramp bull). Sum-of-the-parts: EUV systems franchise at €900/share (60× EUV-segment normalized earnings), DUV systems at €280/share, services at €230/share, High-NA optionality at €250/share — total €1,660/share, almost exactly current price.
🗓️ Next 3 Catalyst Dates
- July 16, 2026: Q2/2026 earnings — High-NA shipment count and Q3 guidance trajectory are the key prints
- November 2026: Capital Markets Day — first detailed disclosure of 2030 revenue framework and Next-Gen-EUV (hyper-NA) roadmap
- Q4/2026: TSMC + Samsung capex 2027 guidance — collectively account for 74% of ASML revenue, sets the demand picture
💬 Daniel's Take
ASML is the single highest-quality monopoly in the public equity universe — but that does not make it a buy at 32.5× forward earnings. Monopolies are wonderful businesses to own at reasonable valuations and risky to own at premium valuations because the multiple gives back when demand softens. The High-NA ramp is real, the €40B backlog is real, the China-DUV-partial-recovery is real. But the stock at €1,566 prices all three positively, and any single one slipping causes a 20% drawdown. My add-trigger is below €1,200 (sub-25× forward) where the asymmetry favors entry. Until then, this is a hold-the-existing-position trade — and a position I would actively trim if the price reaches €1,800+. Quality alone does not justify any price; ASML at the right price is one of the best long-term holdings on earth.
Sources (3)
Disclaimer: This article is not investment advice. Investing in stocks carries risks, including total loss.
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