Arlo Technologies
ARLO Small CapIndustrials · Building Products & Equipment
Updated: Jul 6, 2026, 22:20 UTC
Price Chart
Key Metrics
Valuation Analysis
About the Company
Arlo Technologies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides cloud-based platform services in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific regions. The company offers Arlo Essential Cameras and Doorbells delivers smart home protection, including automated privacy shield, 360-degree coverage, and 2K video resolution; Arlo Home Security System, an all-in-one multi-sensor that provides access to security experts for monitoring and responding to emergency situations; ARLO PRO 6, a pro series wireless security cameras; ARLO ULTRA 3, a 4K HDR video resolution, auto-zoom and tracking and an expansive 180-degree field of view camera; Arlo Go 2, a camera for monitoring remote areas, large properties, construction sites, vacation homes, boat or RV slips, and hard-to-acces
Arlo Technologies Stock at a Glance
Arlo Technologies (ARLO) is currently trading at $13.19 with a market capitalization of $1.4B. The trailing P/E ratio stands at 47.11x, with a forward P/E of 13.35x. The 52-week range spans from $11.05 to $19.94; the current price is 33.9% below the yearly high. Year-over-year revenue growth stands at +26.3%. The net profit margin stands at 5.46%.
💰 Dividend
Arlo Technologies currently does not pay a dividend. The company typically reinvests its earnings into growth initiatives and product development.
📊 Analyst Rating
5 analysts rate Arlo Technologies (ARLO) on consensus: None. The average price target is $21.40, implying +62.24% from the current price. Analyst price targets range from $19.00 to $24.00.
Arlo Technologies: The Investment Case in Detail
Arlo Technologies (ARLO) operates in the Industrials — specifically Building Products & Equipment — and is headquartered in United States. Below is a structured read of the investment case built directly from the latest fundamentals, valuation multiples, analyst positioning and smart-money flows. Each section translates raw numbers into the investment logic they imply, so you can decide whether the risk/reward fits your portfolio.
The Bull Case
Top-line momentum is unusually strong with revenue expanding 26.3% year-over-year, a pace that puts the company well above the market average and signals genuine demand traction rather than mere cyclical tailwind.
The Bear Case
Short interest sits at 12.67% of float — a meaningful contingent of professionals is positioned for the share to fall, which deserves attention even if their thesis may turn out to be wrong. Our valuation screen flags the stock as overvalued — current multiples imply the business needs to deliver well above its recent trajectory to justify the price.
Valuation in Context
With a PEG ratio of 0.6, the price-to-earnings multiple is actually below the company's growth rate — classic value-meets-growth territory that Peter Lynch would have called a 'GARP' opportunity. The EV/EBITDA multiple of 59.04x reflects rich expectations — historically, multiples at this level have proven hard to maintain for more than a few quarters.
What to Watch Next
- The forward P/E of 13.35x is meaningfully below the trailing 47.11x — analysts expect earnings to step up; the next earnings release is the test.
- The price sits in the lower quartile of the 52-week range — value hunters often start scaling in around this zone if fundamentals hold.
- The analyst consensus price target implies 62.24% upside — if the next two quarters confirm the underlying thesis, target hikes typically follow.
Investment Thesis: Strengths & Weaknesses
- Strong revenue growth of 26.3% YoY
- High return on equity (23.32% ROE)
- Solid balance sheet with low debt (D/E 5.17)
- Positive free cash flow
- –Currently flagged as overvalued
- –High short interest (12.67%)
Technical Snapshot
Price is below both the 50- and 200-day moving averages, with 50d below 200d — a bearish picture (death-cross alignment).
Risk Profile
The data points to above-average price swings, elevated short interest (12.67%).
Trading Data
Related Stocks in the Same Sector
Arlo Technologies at 12.32 USD: smart-home camera SaaS converted Verisure into a 700 million USD lifetime annuity — and analysts price 76 percent upside
The Real Story
Arlo Technologies is the smart-home security camera business spun off from Netgear in August 2018. The product is well known to consumers: Arlo Essential, Arlo Pro and Arlo Ultra cameras sold through Costco, Best Buy, Amazon and the company website with subscription Arlo Secure plans behind the hardware. What is less understood is that Arlo has executed one of the cleanest hardware-to-SaaS pivots in the small-cap consumer-electronics universe.
The defining transaction is the November 2024 contract extension with Verisure (European home-security monitoring leader). Verisure committed to a minimum 700 million USD of cumulative subscription revenue through 2031 for Arlo cameras embedded in Verisure home-security packages — a multi-year SaaS annuity from a single enterprise customer. Combined with direct-to-consumer Arlo Secure paid accounts (4.5 million paid accounts at last disclosure, growing high-teens annually), recurring revenue is now roughly 65 percent of total revenue and rising. The hardware business is essentially a subscriber-acquisition channel.
Financials reflect the model shift. Revenue 560.6 million USD trailing, growth 26.3 percent year over year. Gross margin 45.09 percent (rising as subscription mix climbs). Operating margin 5.89 percent (positive after years of losses). Profit margin 5.46 percent. ROE 23.32 percent. FCF positive 63.7 million USD. Trailing P/E 44.0 reflects normalizing 2024 earnings; forward P/E 12.83 prices the 2026 consensus. 376 employees, headquartered in Carlsbad, California.
What Smart Money Thinks
13F filings show no marquee guru positions but a steady accumulation pattern in mid-cap-consumer-tech specialist funds. Short interest 12.00 percent (short ratio 10.35 days) is elevated and reflects skepticism over consumer-camera competition from Ring (Amazon), Nest (Google) and Wyze. Analyst recommendation is strong_buy (4 analysts), target mean 21.75 USD implying 76.5 percent upside — one of the highest analyst upside calls in the small-cap consumer-tech category. The 52-week position of 14.3 percent shows the stock is in a typical small-cap drawdown despite improving fundamentals.
Explore the BMI Smart-Money Tracker →
📈 The 3 Real Bull Points
📉 The 3 Real Bear Points
Valuation in Context
EV/Revenue 2.1 is hardware multiple, not SaaS multiple. Adjust for the 65 percent recurring-revenue mix: on a blended SaaS-plus-hardware basis the right EV/Revenue is closer to 3.5-4.5x. Current EV is approximately 1.18 billion USD; SaaS-blended fair value 2.0-2.5 billion USD; equity per share 17-22 USD. EV/EBITDA 55.66 is distorted by trailing earnings normalization. Forward P/E 12.83 against analyst target mean 21.75 USD and strong_buy consensus from 4 analysts. The valuation_signal field flags overvalued — that flag is driven by trailing EV/EBITDA 55.66 and historical comparables, not forward fundamentals.
🗓️ Next 3 Catalyst Dates
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💬 Daniel's Take
Arlo is the rare consumer-hardware franchise that actually executed the hardware-to-SaaS pivot. The Verisure contract is real, the subscription margins are SaaS-quality, and the analyst target of 21.75 USD reflects reasonable multiple-expansion math. The risk is that I am paying for a re-rating that hardware competition might not allow. Position size 1-2 percent of portfolio, scale into 8-10 USD weakness. The 12 percent short interest is the most useful tell — if Q2 subscription-margin print is clean, the squeeze adds to fundamental re-rating. If the print disappoints, take the loss and move on.
Sources (3)
Disclaimer: This article is not investment advice. Investing in stocks carries risks, including total loss.
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