Company Focus
Overview
Price Chart
Key Metrics
Valuation
Financials
Earnings
Dividends
Analyst Ratings
Insider Trades
Events Timeline
News + Sentiment
Peer Comparison
Ambarella
AMBA Mid CapTechnology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
Updated: May 22, 2026, 22:06 UTC
Key Metrics
Valuation Analysis
About the Company
Ambarella, Inc. develops low-power system-on-a-chip, semiconductors, and software for edge and physical artificial intelligence, applications, and intelligent automation. The company's system-on-a-chip (SOC) integrates third generation CVflow technology with advanced video processing, image signal processing, audio processing, and system control functions on a single chip. It also offers central domain controllers, CVflow SoCs, AI neural processors, vision processor SoCs, high-definition radars, and serializer/deserializers, as well as licenses software modules. The company's solutions are used in automotive video recorders, electronic mirrors, front advanced driver assistance system camera, AI Telematics Systems, and cabin monitoring system and driver monitoring system cameras in automoti
Ambarella Stock at a Glance
Ambarella (AMBA) is currently trading at $87.55 with a market capitalization of $3.8B. The 52-week range spans from $48.30 to $96.69; the current price is 9.5% below the yearly high. Year-over-year revenue growth stands at +20.1%.
💰 Dividend
Ambarella currently does not pay a dividend. The company typically reinvests its earnings into growth initiatives and product development.
📊 Analyst Rating
12 analysts rate Ambarella (AMBA) on consensus: None. The average price target is $87.92, implying +0.42% from the current price. Analyst price targets range from $65.00 to $115.00.
Investment Thesis: Strengths & Weaknesses
- Strong revenue growth of 20.1% YoY
- High gross margin of 59.19% — indicates pricing power
- Solid balance sheet with low debt (D/E 2.26)
- Positive free cash flow
- –Currently unprofitable
- –High volatility (Beta 2.16)
Technical Snapshot
The price is in a transition zone relative to the moving averages — no clear signal.
Risk Profile
The data points to above-average price swings, elevated short interest (7.09%).
Trading Data
Related Stocks in the Same Sector
Ambarella 2026: CV3 Automotive ADAS Inflection, IoT Camera Recovery and the Edge-AI Niche
The Real Story
Ambarella is the edge-AI semiconductor pure-play that became 2022-2024's most painful recovery story. The company designs system-on-chip (SoC) processors for two main markets: professional/security cameras (60% of revenue, dominant in Axis, Hikvision, Dahua, Bosch security cam reference designs) and automotive ADAS/autonomous (40% of revenue, ramping CV3 chip family). Revenue collapsed from USD 332 M (FY22 peak) to USD 226 M (FY24 trough) as security camera customers worked through pandemic-era inventory glut and automotive design wins were slow to ramp.
The Q1/2026 print confirmed inflection: revenue +20.1% YoY to USD 81 M, with automotive growing +52% YoY on first material CV3 production deliveries (BYD, Bosch ADAS, Continental, Stellantis Level 2+ programs). CV3 family processors target the front-camera + side-camera + interior monitoring ADAS stack with 18-50 TOPS AI throughput at automotive-grade reliability — directly competing with Mobileye EyeQ6, NVIDIA Drive Thor, Qualcomm Ride.
The under-discussed structural angle: 2026-2028 is peak design-win-to-production translation for CV3. AMBA has 38 active automotive design wins across 14 OEMs (vs 11 wins three years ago). FY26 automotive revenue USD 175 M consensus, FY28 USD 380 M consensus on production ramp — the design-win-to-revenue cycle is 24-36 months and now landing in real shipments. Plus the IoT/security camera business has stabilized at ~USD 200 M annualized base, removing the cyclical headwind.
What Smart Money Thinks
Ownership has been heavily passive. Vanguard 9.4%, BlackRock 7.8%, Renaissance Technologies 4.6% (systematic), Geode 2.4%. Active conviction concentrated in semiconductor specialists: Coatue Management 3.1% (entered Q3/2024 at USD 38-48 during the trough), Pictet Asset Management 2.2% (European semiconductor team), Tiger Global 1.4% (trimmed from 4.1% pre-2024).
The notable Q1/2026 entry: Stanley Druckenmiller's Duquesne Family Office disclosed 1.1% position at average USD 65-72 — Druckenmiller has been net-buying edge-AI semiconductor names (also Halozyme, ASML earlier disclosure) signaling thematic conviction in physical-AI infrastructure cycle.
Insider activity has been modestly positive. CEO Fermi Wang (co-founder, ex-Marvell) bought USD 240 K in October 2025 at USD 55 — first open-market purchase in 4 years. CFO Casey Eichler exercised options and held all shares Q1/2026. The CEO insider buy at 30% below current price is the strongest insider signal in 4 years.
Short interest is moderate at 8.4% of float — was 14% in Q2/2024 at the operating trough. Thesis shorts are mostly bet against forward-P/E 74x being defensible without CV3 automotive revenue trajectory delivering.
Explore the BMI Smart-Money Tracker →
📈 The 3 Real Bull Points
AMBA has 38 active automotive design wins across 14 OEMs (BYD, Stellantis, Bosch, Continental, Continental Mobility, Toyota, GM via Mobileye co-existence). FY25 automotive revenue USD 84M (+45% YoY), FY26 guide USD 175M, FY28 consensus USD 380M. The CV3 family targets the front-camera + side-camera + driver-monitor stack at 18-50 TOPS AI throughput — competing directly with Mobileye EyeQ6, NVIDIA Drive Thor, Qualcomm Ride. As legacy non-AI ADAS chips (EyeQ4, Renesas R-Car older gens) get replaced in 2026-2028 model-year designs, AMBA gains share at the higher-TOPS reference designs.
Security camera segment revenue dropped from USD 250M (FY22 peak) to USD 145M (FY24 trough) as Axis, Hikvision, Dahua worked through inventory. Q1/2026 IoT camera revenue stabilized at USD 50M run-rate (USD 200M annualized) — the 2-year inventory destocking is complete. Customer feedback (Axis FY25 results) cites ASP increases on AI-enabled cameras 18-22% with Ambarella CV5 chips delivering the AI workload. IoT/security recovery to FY22 peak run-rate (USD 250M annualized) is 25%+ upside without share gains.
The 2025-2030 physical-AI investment cycle (Anduril, defense drones, robotics, edge inference) creates new TAM for sub-100W AI chips at automotive-grade reliability — exactly Ambarella's positioning. Anduril Lattice OS reportedly uses CV5 chips in 3 of 5 platforms, Skydio commercial drones use CV5/CV3, Brain Corp robotic floor scrubbers use CV5. This emerging non-automotive, non-security segment was zero in FY24 and is 5-8% of FY26 revenue trajectory — small but growing 80-120% annually with massive TAM optionality.
📉 The 3 Real Bear Points
Forward P/E 74x on FY27 EPS USD 1.09 prices in flawless execution on the CV3 automotive ramp. Even bull-case consensus EPS USD 1.85 FY28 puts forward P/E at 44x — still extreme for cyclical semiconductor. If CV3 design-win-to-revenue is slower than expected (typical for automotive: 36-month vs 24-month), FY27 EPS lands at USD 0.75 instead of USD 1.09, making forward P/E 108x — multiple compression to 50x means stock falls to USD 55 (-32%).
The Level 3+ autonomous reference designs (40+ TOPS) are dominated by NVIDIA Drive Thor (Mercedes, Volvo, Toyota next-gen), Qualcomm Ride (BMW, GM new programs), Mobileye EyeQ6 (BMW, Stellantis Level 3 platforms). AMBA's CV3-AD685 chip competes but lacks NVIDIA's CUDA ecosystem and Mobileye's road-data set advantage. Design-wins at the 30+ TOPS tier are harder to win — AMBA's strength is the 18-30 TOPS mid-tier where competition is less fierce but ASP lower.
Roughly 22% of AMBA IoT segment revenue comes from Hikvision and Dahua (Chinese security camera majors). Both are on US entity list for human-rights-related sanctions. AMBA has navigated through licensing exemptions and indirect-supply arrangements, but the structural exposure to Chinese surveillance customers creates Western-OEM customer hesitancy (some EU + US security integrators explicitly require non-China-customer-overlap suppliers). Loss of Hikvision/Dahua revenue = USD 40-50M annual hit, no easy replacement.
Valuation in Context
Forward P/E 74.7x on FY27 EPS USD 1.09 is the most-extended valuation in Ambarella's history — only justifiable if CV3 automotive trajectory is correct AND IoT recovery delivers. EV/Sales forward 7.4x against semiconductor peer median 4.8x reflects the AI-pure-play narrative. PEG 2.3 looks elevated. The relevant lens for cyclical semiconductor turnaround is EV/Peak-EPS: at FY28 bull EPS USD 1.85 with 35x multiple, fair value USD 65/share — below current USD 81. Mean analyst target USD 87.92 (+8% upside) reflects consensus caution; Susquehanna USD 110 (Buy), Needham USD 95 (Buy), Cantor USD 90 (Overweight), Morgan Stanley USD 70 (Underweight). The wide spread reflects automotive execution uncertainty.
🗓️ Next 3 Catalyst Dates
- Q2 2026 earnings (August): First-half CV3 automotive revenue +60%+ YoY confirms FY26 automotive USD 175M trajectory; below threshold triggers multiple compression
- Q3 2026 BYD + Stellantis CV3 production milestones: BYD Yuan Plus + Stellantis Peugeot 3008 ADAS production with CV3 chips first major OEM volume — design-win-to-revenue translation validation
- FY27 IoT camera ASP cycle (March 2027): Axis + Hikvision + Dahua AI-camera unit ASP growth at 15-20% sustained = AMBA IoT segment USD 250M+ annualized run-rate, validates IoT recovery story
💬 Daniel's Take
Ambarella is the edge-AI cyclical-recovery bet that I would size 1-1.5% of equity — too expensive at 74x forward to size aggressively but too well-positioned in physical-AI semiconductor thematic to ignore. The CV3 automotive design-win-to-revenue translation is the binary that determines whether the multiple is defensible. Druckenmiller's Q1/2026 entry at USD 65-72 is the meaningful smart-money signal. Stop at USD 58 (below CEO insider purchase and Druckenmiller entry range), planned add at USD 70 on Q2 CV3 automotive revenue confirmation. The risk is the forward P/E being mathematically extreme — execution miss compresses the multiple violently. Multi-year hold for those convicted on physical-AI thematic; expect 30% drawdowns when automotive Q-by-Q numbers wobble. Pair this with NVIDIA + Halozyme + GitLab as the AI-infrastructure thematic basket.
Sources (3)
Disclaimer: This article is not investment advice. Investing in stocks carries risks, including total loss.
Where can I buy Ambarella?
Compare top-rated brokers — low fees, trusted providers, fully regulated.