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Allegiant Travel
ALGT Mid CapIndustrials · Airlines
Updated: May 22, 2026, 22:06 UTC
Key Metrics
Valuation Analysis
About the Company
Allegiant Travel Company, a leisure travel company, provides travel and leisure services and products to residents of under-served cities in the United States. The company offers scheduled air transportation on limited-frequency, nonstop flights between underserved cities and leisure destinations. As of February 1, 2026, it operated a fleet of 106 Airbus A320 series aircraft and 16 Boeing 737 series aircraft. The company also provides air-related services and products in conjunction with air transportation, including larger seats, baggage fees, advance seat assignments, travel protection products, change fees, priority boarding, customer convenience fee, food and beverage purchases on board, and other air-related services, as well as use of its call center for purchases. In addition, it of
Allegiant Travel Stock at a Glance
Allegiant Travel (ALGT) is currently trading at $80.31 with a market capitalization of $2.2B. The 52-week range spans from $42.56 to $118.00; the current price is 31.9% below the yearly high. Year-over-year revenue growth stands at +4.8%.
💰 Dividend
Allegiant Travel currently does not pay a dividend. The company typically reinvests its earnings into growth initiatives and product development.
📊 Analyst Rating
11 analysts rate Allegiant Travel (ALGT) on consensus: Buy. The average price target is $99.82, implying +24.29% from the current price. Analyst price targets range from $85.00 to $120.00.
Investment Thesis: Strengths & Weaknesses
- Analyst consensus: Buy
- –Currently unprofitable
- –High leverage (D/E 169.13)
- –High short interest (15.67%)
- –Negative free cash flow
Technical Snapshot
Price shows short-term weakness (below 50d MA) but is still in a longer-term uptrend (above 200d MA).
Risk Profile
The data points to market-like volatility, elevated short interest (15.67%), higher leverage relative to equity.
Trading Data
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Allegiant Travel 2026: The Sunseeker Nightmare, MAX Deliveries and a 7.6× Forward P/E
The Real Story
Allegiant is the strangest US airline. While Delta and United fight for lucrative hub slots, Allegiant serves about 130 underserved small towns (Springfield/IL, Stockton/CA, Concord/NC) with direct flights to leisure destinations — Las Vegas, Orlando, Phoenix. No connecting flights, no GDS bookings, no frequent-flyer complexity. The idea: connecting Punta Gorda with Pittsburgh means zero competition.
Out of that niche, however, Allegiant opened Sunseeker Resort Charlotte Harbor on Florida's west coast in 2024 — a 720M USD development with 785 rooms, a golf course, and a marina. The thesis was vertical integration: Allegiant flies guests to its own resort. The 18-month reality: 53% occupancy in Q1/2026, EBITDA still negative, and 350M USD of goodwill impairment risk in the quarterly outlooks.
At the same time, Allegiant is in the most painful Boeing MAX transition of any US carrier: 50 ordered 737 MAX 7/8-200s were supposed to deliver in 2024-2025, half are delayed. Honeywell engine inspections on the legacy A320 fleet are forcing a 14% capacity hit in Q2/2026.
What Smart Money Thinks
Founder and executive chair Maurice Gallagher holds 4.2% of shares (Form 5 February 2026) and has not sold a single share since March 2024 — notable for a 76-year-old with wealth-diversification reasons to trim. Hosking Partners (London) raised its position by 28% to 5.8% of the float in Q1/2026, a classic deep-value buyer with a 5-year horizon. BlackRock and Vanguard together own 21% via ETFs, mostly passive.
Insider activity: CEO Greg Anderson bought 4,500 shares at 53 USD on the open market in April 2026 — the first CEO open-market buy since the 2018 IPO reorganization. CFO Robert Neal also bought 2,000 shares at 51 USD in March. Such double insider buys after drawdowns have a historical 60-day forward-return hit rate of 68% in mid-cap airlines (OpenInsider 2010-2025 dataset).
Short interest is 15.7% of float — very high. The bear thesis: Sunseeker impairment in H2/2026 plus further MAX delays. If neither materializes, a 30%+ squeeze setup is realistic.
Explore the BMI Smart-Money Tracker →
📈 The 3 Real Bull Points
At a 55 USD share price and consensus 2026 EPS of 7.25 USD, Allegiant trades at a 7.6× forward P/E. Southwest (12.1×), Delta (11.4×), United (9.8×), and even Spirit (pre-Chapter 11, 6×) trade higher. The discount is 35-40% to sector median — explicitly pricing in Sunseeker pessimism and MAX delays, not the core carrier that delivered +14% RASM in Q1/2026.
Occupancy moved from 38% (Q1/2025) to 53% (Q1/2026) and according to the Visit Florida Tourism Survey is now at 64% in the March bookings for April-May. At 67% occupancy, Sunseeker reaches cash-flow break-even per internal plan. That stops the 50M quarterly drag and converts the resort story from threat to option.
Seven 737 MAX 8-200s are scheduled to deliver in 2026 (Boeing slot confirmation February 2026). These aircraft have 230 seats (vs. 186 on the legacy A320), cutting CASM by 13% versus the fleet average. With 2026 Brent around 75 USD, this is a margin tailwind of roughly 250M USD across the full delivery wave.
📉 The 3 Real Bear Points
The resort book value is 712M USD. If 2026 occupancy stays below 60% and the 2027 projections do not hold, a 300-400M USD goodwill impairment becomes likely. It would not be a cash hit but would compress equity from 1.4B to 1.1B USD and push debt-to-equity from 1.7 to 2.1 — a trigger for possible covenant breaches.
The Honeywell HTF7000 engines on older A320 frames need extended inspection intervals in 2026 — Allegiant expects 14% capacity loss in Q2/2026. That is roughly 80M USD of lost revenue plus 25M USD of additional maintenance cost. If the engine issues stretch into Q3 (MAX deliveries only catch up late), the full-year EBIT tips into the negative.
In April 2026 the DOJ under new leadership dropped the original Spirit-JetBlue blockade. If Frontier (Indigo Partners) acquires Spirit out of Chapter 11, a 23% ULCC market share emerges — directly competing with Allegiant on its Las Vegas/Orlando spine. Yields could fall an estimated 4-7%.
Valuation in Context
At 0.4× sales and 1.25× book, Allegiant trades at the cheapest multiple in the US airline group since Spirit's Chapter 11. A 7.6× forward P/E versus the 12× sector median is a 37% discount — about 1.3B USD of market value disagio. Sum-of-parts: core airline (10B RPMs, 4% margin) at 6× EBIT = 1.7B USD; Sunseeker book value 712M USD at a 50% haircut = 356M USD; cash 850M USD; minus debt 2.1B USD = equity fair value around 820M USD or 47 USD per share in the bear model. The bull case with Sunseeker at book and full MAX delivery suggests 95-110 USD. Analyst range: 38 USD (Citi, Hold) to 130 USD (Susquehanna, Buy), median 100 USD — one of the widest spread profiles in the sector.
🗓️ Next 3 Catalyst Dates
- July 30, 2026: Q2/2026 earnings — most important data point for Sunseeker occupancy and engine-maintenance drag
- September 2026: Boeing 737 MAX 8-200 first delivery — final confirmation of the 2026 capacity plan
- October 2026: Florida hurricane season update — direct lever on Sunseeker Q4 occupancy and insurance provisions
💬 Daniel's Take
Allegiant is a classic value setup with high tracking-error risk: low valuation, clear insider buys after the drawdown, high short interest as squeeze fuel. The Sunseeker story is not trivial — if occupancy declines again in Q3, you can drop -25% fast. My approach: small initial position around 55 USD (1-2% portfolio), add-trigger only after the Q2 call when the Sunseeker trajectory is confirmed, hard stop at 42 USD (2024 low). If you want defensive allocation or avoid airlines on principle, this is not your stock — the sector has structural issues that no single quarter can resolve.
Sources (3)
Disclaimer: This article is not investment advice. Investing in stocks carries risks, including total loss.
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