Ackermans and van Haaren

Ackermans & Van Haaren (AvH) is Belgium's most patient diversified holding company, controlled since 1984 by Scaldis Invest (the Bekaert and de Spoelberch families) and operated with a 30-year capital-allocation horizon that is rare in listed markets. FY2025 revenue EUR 5.96 bn at 15.3% operating margin, ROE 11.0% — but those headline numbers materially understate the value because they exclude proportional contributions from associates and the marked-to-market gains in DEME (separately listed since 2022 as DEME.BR). AvH structure consists of four segments: Marine Engineering & Contracting (62% of DEME, the global offshore wind installation leader), Private Banking (79% combined of Delen Private Bank and Bank J.Van Breda, ~EUR 70 bn AUM together), Real Estate & Senior Care (Extensa real estate, Anima senior-care platform), and Growth Capital (Sipef agro, Sagar Cements India, AvH Greenstream renewables).

The 2026 strategic story has two threads. First, the DEME offshore-wind supercycle: global offshore-wind installation requires growing from approximately 8 GW per year today to 30-40 GW per year by 2030 under net-zero pathways. DEME is one of three global wind-turbine-installation-vessel (WTIV) leaders alongside Cadeler and Eneti. DEME's order book reached EUR 8.5 bn at end-2025, providing 2.5x revenue coverage, and the fleet expansion (Orion, Green Jade, Norse Wind) targets the new XXL turbine generation (15+ MW). Second, the private banking franchise: Delen + Van Breda compounded AUM at 9% per annum over 2015-2025 with operating leverage. Belgium's wealth-transfer dynamic (an estimated EUR 350 bn moving generations through 2030) gives a multi-decade tailwind to client acquisition.

The 2026 question is whether the DEME order-book translates to margin expansion (DEME EBITDA margin 13% versus pure-WTIV peers 22-28%) and whether the holdco NAV discount (currently approximately 22%) narrows as the renewable-supercycle thesis becomes consensus.

Top holders Q1/2026: Scaldis Invest (Bekaert & de Spoelberch families) approximately 33.0% (controlling, family-stewarded since 1984), BlackRock 3.4%, Norges Bank 3.1%, Pictet Asset Management 2.6%, Belfius Investment Partners 1.8%, Sycomore Asset Management 1.2%. Free-float effectively 60%.

Most interesting move: Pictet Asset Management added 38% to its position in Q4/2025 — first major Swiss-private-bank-house accumulation since 2018. Pictet research describes the AvH thesis as quality compounding through the holdco-NAV-discount narrowing. Sycomore opened a fresh 1.2% position in Q1/2026 at sub-EUR 270 prices, an explicit value-pivot from a European-value house.

Insider activity: Chairman Luc Bertrand (third-generation family steward, in role since 2021) made a small open-market purchase of EUR 280k in November 2025 at EUR 265. CEO Tom Bamelis (in role since 2024) has not transacted. The Scaldis Invest holding has not been reduced since the family-restructuring round in 2018 — a credible signal of long-term stewardship intent.

Short interest reported at 0% and short ratio 0 — structurally un-shortable due to free-float concentration with stable institutional and family holders. AvH is the European-quality-compounder profile that does not attract tactical hedge-fund flows.

Forward P/E 14.0x, P/B 1.61x, EV/EBITDA 9.1x — all metrics reflect a stable quality holdco rather than a growth story. NAV-based valuation is more relevant: management-published NAV approximately EUR 11.8 bn versus market cap EUR 9.2 bn implying 22% discount. Sell-side PT consensus EUR 296.29 (range EUR 245-340): KBC Securities most bullish at EUR 340 (DEME margin expansion + Delen continued growth + holdco discount narrows to 15%), HSBC most bearish at EUR 245 (DEME margin disappoints + holdco discount stays wide). 7 analysts cover, recommendation classified as neutral. Implied DEME margin-expansion probability and holdco-discount-narrowing in current price approximately 50%. Bull case EUR 340 (+21%) on DEME EBITDA margin 18% by 2027 + Delen AUM acceleration + holdco discount narrows to 15%. Bear case EUR 230 (-18%) on DEME margin stays at 13% + real-estate writedowns + holdco discount widens to 30%.

1. August 2026: AvH H1/2026 NAV update + DEME order-book progression
2. Q3 2026: DEME Q2/2026 results — vessel-utilization and margin readthrough
3. Q1 2027: AvH FY2026 full-year results + dividend policy review — potential special distribution from any 2026 monetisation

Ackermans & van Haaren is the Belgian patient-capital compounder — owned by families that measure success in 30-year increments, not quarterly earnings. The DEME offshore-wind exposure is the new strategic angle, but the structural compounder is Delen + Van Breda private banking which has compounded AUM 9% per annum for a decade and will continue under Belgian wealth-transfer tailwind. At 22% NAV discount, I am paying for the holdco-discount narrowing optionality plus the underlying NAV growth. I size ACKB.BR at 1.5-2.5% as the European-quality-holdco position. The trade I would not make is choosing between AvH and direct DEME exposure — AvH gives me DEME plus Delen plus optionality, but DEME captures the offshore-wind beta more directly. For investors who want pure offshore-wind beta, DEME standalone is better; for quality compounding with low beta and dividend, AvH wins. Add trigger: any quarter with DEME EBITDA margin above 16% combined with sustained AvH NAV growth. Cut trigger: family Scaldis Invest reduces stake by 3+ percentage points or DEME margin disappoints again in 2026.