Bill Ackman — Smart Money Profile & Strategy

Smart Money Profile

Bill Ackman

Pershing Square Capital

Bill Ackman — Pershing Square Capital
Pershing
Primary Fund
$13.7B
13F Portfolio Value
Activist · Concentrated
Investment Style

Profile & Investment Philosophy

Bill Ackman executed one of the quarter's most significant trades in Q1 2026, initiating a massive new position in Microsoft funded by a 95% reduction in his Alphabet stake. This rotation reflects Ackman's conviction in enterprise software and AI leadership. Following his exit from Hilton, Ackman's Pershing Square remains highly concentrated in high-quality, "simple and predictable" businesses like Amazon, Uber, and Brookfield.

Track Record

Pershing Square Capital has compounded at roughly 16.5% annually since inception in 2004, beating the S&P 500's ~10.2%. After dismal years in 2015-2017 (Valeant disaster, Herbalife short), Ackman returned to form with +58.1% in 2019, +70.2% in 2020 (largely thanks to a $27 million CDS hedge that printed $2.6 billion), +26.9% in 2021, and steady double-digit gains through 2024. AUM grew from $500 million in 2004 to roughly $20 billion in 2026. Pershing Square Holdings (PSH) trades on Amsterdam and London exchanges as a closed-end vehicle with around $15 billion NAV.

Signature Trades

MBIA Short (2002-2008)
Ackman researched bond insurer MBIA for years, arguing its CDO exposure made the AAA rating fiction. He was publicly mocked and investigated by Spitzer. When the 2008 crisis hit, MBIA collapsed 90% and his Pershing Square II fund delivered triple-digit returns. The trade cemented his reputation for deep-dive forensic research and willingness to be wrong for years.
COVID CDS Hedge (March 2020)
On February 23, 2020, Ackman bought $27 million of investment-grade and high-yield CDS protection as COVID escalated. Within four weeks credit spreads exploded and he sold the hedges for $2.6 billion — a 96x return in 30 days. He immediately recycled the gains into Berkshire, Hilton and Lowe's near the bottom, generating record fund returns.
Herbalife Short (2012-2018)
Ackman shorted Herbalife with a $1 billion position and a 342-page presentation calling it a pyramid scheme. Carl Icahn took the other side. The FTC fined Herbalife $200 million but didn't shut it down. Ackman covered after six years at a loss exceeding $700 million — his costliest mistake and a lesson in trade-conviction time horizons.

Current Strategy (2026)

Pershing Square runs a concentrated 8-12 stock portfolio. As of Q1 2026, top holdings include Brookfield Corp, Restaurant Brands International, Chipotle, Howard Hughes Holdings, Hilton, Alphabet, and Nike — the latter a 2024 build after a brand and execution stumble. Uber was a notable 2025 add. Ackman has been vocal on rates, predicting the 10-year stabilizes around 4-4.5% as fiscal deficits constrain Fed cuts. He's also pursued the Pershing Square USA closed-end fund IPO (withdrawn 2024, restructured 2025) and built a public profile on geopolitical and political commentary that occasionally rattles institutional LPs. The strategy remains long-only quality compounders with activist nudges where governance can be improved.

BMI

BMI Counter-Take

Ackman is a brilliant analyst with a Twitter problem. The portfolio quality is high — Brookfield, Chipotle, Hilton are genuine compounders — but the public commentary on politics, geopolitics, and rates increasingly makes him a meme stock manager rather than a fund manager. BMI's view: the Nike build looks early but defensible (brand moats heal), and Uber is a sharp call. The pulled USA IPO was a warning signal — retail demand isn't institutional capital. We'd own PSH at a NAV discount but not pay premium for the manager. The CDS playbook is unrepeatable; investors expecting another 96x are buying the wrong dream.

Current Portfolio

LATEST 13F 2026-03-31

Latest SEC Form 13F filing. Total portfolio value: $13.7 B. Holdings: 11 positions.

SecuritySharesΔ vs PrevValue ($)Portfolio %
Brookfield Corp.59.7 M-2.8%$2.42 B17.6 %
Amazon Com Inc.11.5 M+19.2%$2.39 B17.4 %
Uber Technologies Inc.30.0 M-0.8%$2.15 B15.7 %
Microsoft Corp.5.65 M★ NEW$2.09 B15.3 %
Restaurant Brands Intl Inc.22.6 M-1.0%$1.67 B12.2 %
Meta Platforms Inc.2.66 M-0.5%$1.52 B11.1 %
Howard Hughes Holdings Inc.18.9 M$1.19 B8.70 %
Seaport Entmt Group Inc.5.02 M$108 M0.79 %
Alphabet Inc.311,726-94.9%$89.4 M0.65 %
Hertz Global Hldgs Inc.15.2 M$70.3 M0.51 %

SOURCE: SEC Form 13F (2026-05-15). BMI Smart Money Tracker.

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