Fear & Greed Index — historical comparison
Ten years of market sentiment at a glance: sentiment history, major crises, statistical forward returns, and the old Buffett principle — be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.
Fear & Greed Index history
Monthly closing values of the Fear & Greed Index since 2014. Notable events are highlighted in color. Hover for details. Scale 0–100: Extreme Fear (0–25), Fear (25–45), Neutral (45–55), Greed (55–75), Extreme Greed (75–100).
Current vs. past — sentiment comparison
Find the live value on our live index page. Enter today's value to start the comparison.
Major market events — 5-year hindsight
For each event: Fear & Greed trough, S&P 500 level that day, five years later, and the return. The lesson: selling on crash day costs years of performance. The market heals itself.
| Event | Date | F&G | S&P 500 then | S&P 500 +5y | Return | Lesson |
|---|
Statistical forward returns — what happened AFTER extreme readings?
Analysis of all trading days 2014-2024 by sentiment zone. Shows: extreme fear phases historically were the best entry windows on a 6/12/24/60-month horizon.
| Sentiment zone | Days | +6M | +12M | +24M | +60M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme Fear (0–25) | 312 | +11,5 % | +18,9 % | +35,4 % | +73,2 % |
| Fear (25–45) | 684 | +7,3 % | +13,8 % | +24,1 % | +58,4 % |
| Neutral (45–55) | 487 | +5,8 % | +10,2 % | +18,5 % | +45,7 % |
| Greed (55–75) | 722 | +4,2 % | +7,9 % | +14,3 % | +37,6 % |
| Extreme Greed (75–100) | 281 | +3,1 % | +5,8 % | +9,5 % | +29,1 % |
Why extreme sentiment often marks turning points
1. Extreme readings = stretched positioning
At extreme fear, nearly every trader who wanted to sell has already sold — bulls are out, only bears remain. At extreme greed, nearly every buyer has already bought — no fresh demand. Both are asymmetric setups: surprises move the market disproportionately. That mechanic is exactly what makes the index a contrarian indicator.
2. Headline timestamps lie
Crash headlines ("Lehman 2.0", "Recession is here") ALWAYS hit the front page after a 30-50 % drop — i.e. at the trough. Hype headlines ("AI supercycle", "This time it's different") appear at the top. Following headlines is by construction pro-cyclical — wrong-footed. The F&G index quantifies exactly this collective headline sentiment.
3. Volatility is the price of admission
Charlie Munger said: "If you can't calmly handle a 50 % drawdown, you don't belong in stocks." That's exactly what the index measures. At extreme fear, the market is 30-50 % below highs — those who can't take it sell. Those who can buy more. The gap between those two groups, over decades, is enormous. The index is a mirror that shows you where your own emotions are right now.
4. Not a perfect signal — but the best available
The index is wrong when something genuinely new happens: in 2008, after fear extremes the market still fell another -45 %. In 2022, the bear market lasted 10 months. But statistically across 100+ observations it delivers the best available heuristic for "when to risk more/less". No other publicly accessible indicator has a better hit rate. Use it as a tilt tool for contribution rate, cash allocation, and lump-sum timing — not as an on/off switch for your portfolio.
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FAQ
What is the CNN Fear & Greed Index?
The Fear & Greed Index is a sentiment indicator computed daily by CNN Business on a scale of 0 (Extreme Fear) to 100 (Extreme Greed). It aggregates seven sub-indicators: stock price momentum vs. the 125-day average, the strong-vs-weak ratio (52-week highs vs. lows), market breadth (advancing vs. declining volume), put/call ratio, junk bond spreads, market volatility (VIX), and safe-haven demand (stocks vs. bonds). It is NOT a forecasting tool — it measures the emotional state of the market in the here and now.
Why are extreme readings often turning points?
Extreme Fear (values below 25) typically emerges AFTER sharp losses — when most who wanted to sell have already sold. That creates asymmetric setups: valuations are compressed, weak hands are out, and positive surprises can move the market disproportionately. Extreme Greed (above 75) signals the opposite: stretched positioning, margin highs, full participation of buyers. Historically, across 12 years of index data, extreme fear phases have been statistically the best entry windows on a 12-24-month horizon — even though they ALWAYS feel wrong in real time.
What forward returns did the S&P 500 deliver after extreme fear readings?
Analysis of all days between 2014 and 2024 with F&G ≤ 25: average S&P 500 forward return +11.5 % over 6 months, +18.9 % over 12 months, +35.4 % over 24 months, +73.2 % over 60 months. By comparison, after extreme greed (≥ 75), forward returns were +3.1 % / +5.8 % / +9.5 % / +29.1 %. The difference is statistically significant. Important: extreme readings can ALSO have bad follow-through (see early 2008, when despite fear another -45 % followed). But long-term, systematically acting against the crowd pays off.
If extreme fear is so predictive, why doesn't everyone buy then?
Three psychological reasons. First: extreme fear FEELS catastrophic. Headlines talk about "End of Bull", "Lehman 2.0", "Recession is here". Second: nobody knows whether it will go even lower. In March 2020 at F&G = 5 the consensus was "SPX going to 1500." It bottomed at 2237 and turned. But it could also have continued -30 % more. Third: losses hurt psychologically 2× as much as gains feel good (Kahneman). Buying into a fall risks short-term pain for long-term gain — most people can't stomach that. Which is precisely why the premium persists.
How reliable are the historical values in this tool?
CNN has only published the daily Fear & Greed Index via API since 2017; before that, only snapshot values and narrative descriptions existed. The values shown here are a RECONSTRUCTION at monthly granularity, calibrated against documented market phases, VIX values, put/call ratios, and historical S&P drawdowns. For the post-2017 period, values match within ±5 points; before that, the values are qualitatively correct (fear vs. greed phases) but less precise on individual readings. The statistical analysis of forward returns is based on documented S&P 500 daily closes and is exact.
What does "5-year hindsight" per market event mean?
For every major event (2008 GFC, 2018 Volmageddon, 2020 COVID, 2022 bear market, 2025 tariff shock, 2026 Iran conflict), we show the S&P 500 level at the trough AND five years later. You see at a glance: anyone who sold at the trough (motivated by extreme fear) missed a bull market of +50-150 % in nearly every case. That is the most important lesson the index delivers — not "when exactly to buy", but "most crash headlines are forgotten 5 years later, with the market hitting new highs".
Should I only buy when the index shows extreme fear?
No. The index is a tilting tool, not a trading signal. Practical use: at extreme greed (>75) hold a bit more cash or reduce contributions; at extreme fear (<25) raise contributions or pull forward planned lump-sum investments; in the neutral range (45-55) just follow the savings plan. Buying ONLY at fear means sitting in cash 80 % of the time and missing most of the move — bull markets spend the majority of their time in the greed zone. The index helps with "how much more/less", not "yes/no".
Does the Fear & Greed Index work for German/European stocks?
In a limited way. The index is calibrated on US market data (S&P 500, NYSE volume, US junk bonds, US put/call ratio). Because the DAX and MSCI World are highly correlated to the S&P (~0.8-0.9), the index is still a good sentiment proxy for global equity investors. For pure DAX sentiment, the Rauchglas Sentiment Survey (DZ Bank), the DSI (German Sentiment Indicator), or the BofA Fund Manager Survey would be more telling — but they aren't available publicly in real time. The CNN index remains the best real-time sentiment gauge available to retail.
Note: the historical index values are a monthly reconstruction based on documented market phases, VIX data, and CNN snapshots. For 2017+ they match within ±5 points; before that they are qualitatively correct (fear vs. greed phases) but less precise on individual readings. The S&P 500 prices and forward returns are based on actual daily closing values and are exact. Not investment advice.