Graphic Packaging Holding Compa

Valuation Analysis

About the Company

Graphic Packaging Holding Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, production, and sale of consumer packaging products to brands in food, beverage, foodservice, household, and other consumer products in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through two segments, Americas Paperboard Packaging and International Paperboard Packaging. The Americas Paperboard Packaging segment includes paperboard packaging sold primarily to consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies serving the food, beverage and consumer product markets and cups, lids and food containers sold primarily to foodservice companies and quick-service restaurants in the Americas. The International Paperboard Packaging includes paperboard packaging sold primarily to CPG companies serving the food,

Graphic Packaging Holding Compa Stock at a Glance

Graphic Packaging Holding Compa (GPK) is currently trading at $10.70 with a market capitalization of $3.2B. The trailing P/E ratio stands at 11.63x, with a forward P/E of 9.13x. The 52-week range spans from $8.79 to $23.76; the current price is 55% below the yearly high. Year-over-year revenue growth stands at +1.7%. The net profit margin stands at 3.17%.

💰 Dividend

Graphic Packaging Holding Compa pays an annual dividend of $0.44 per share, representing a yield of 4.11%. The payout ratio stands at 47.83%.

📊 Analyst Rating

9 analysts rate Graphic Packaging Holding Compa (GPK) on consensus: None. The average price target is $11.79, implying +10.18% from the current price. Analyst price targets range from $8.00 to $18.00.

Graphic Packaging Holding Compa: The Investment Case in Detail

Graphic Packaging Holding Compa (GPK) operates in the Consumer Cyclical — specifically Packaging & Containers — and is headquartered in United States. Below is a structured read of the investment case built directly from the latest fundamentals, valuation multiples, analyst positioning and smart-money flows. Each section translates raw numbers into the investment logic they imply, so you can decide whether the risk/reward fits your portfolio.

The Bull Case

Our valuation screen flags the stock as undervalued relative to its fundamentals — multiples are running below where the cash flow profile would normally justify.

The Bear Case

Revenue growth has slowed to just 1.7%, which is below nominal GDP — the business is no longer outgrowing the broader economy. With a net margin of just 3.17%, the business has little room to absorb cost shocks or pricing pressure — a single bad quarter can swing the company to a loss. Short interest sits at 16.07% of float — a meaningful contingent of professionals is positioned for the share to fall, which deserves attention even if their thesis may turn out to be wrong.

Valuation in Context

At a PEG of 3.33, investors are paying more than three times the growth rate for each unit of earnings — that pricing assumes growth not only continues but accelerates from here. The EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.06x is below the historical equity-market average — strategic acquirers would find the cash-flow profile attractive at this level.

What to Watch Next

• The forward P/E of 9.13x is meaningfully below the trailing 11.63x — analysts expect earnings to step up; the next earnings release is the test.
• The price sits in the lower quartile of the 52-week range — value hunters often start scaling in around this zone if fundamentals hold.
• The dividend yield near 4.11% combined with a payout ratio of 47.83% leaves room for further hikes — a track record of consecutive raises is a strong income signal.

Investment Thesis: Strengths & Weaknesses

Technical Snapshot

The price is in a transition zone relative to the moving averages — no clear signal.

Risk Profile

The data points to relatively defensive market behavior, elevated short interest (16.07%), higher leverage relative to equity.

Trading Data

💵 Dividend Info

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