Defense / Rearmament Supercycle
Europe and NATO are raising defense budgets for years — a structural spending wave, not a one-off.
After the 2025 NATO summit in The Hague, allies committed to 5 percent of GDP by 2035 (3.5 percent core defense plus 1.5 percent flanking spending). Germany is heading toward roughly 117 billion euros in 2026, while Poland and the Baltics already sit at or above four percent. This is a multi-year, treaty-anchored demand wave that lifts order books and margins at leading defense primes.
Mechanism
Government defense budgets flow into industry through multi-year contracts and convert into long-dated backlogs that make revenue and margins visible for years. Ammunition, armor, warships and defense IT have limited capacity, so rising budgets meet tight supply and strengthen pricing power. Firms that build capacity early capture a disproportionate share of the order wave.
Catalysts
The NATO summit in Ankara in July 2026 should further firm up spending paths. Rheinmetall expects its backlog to more than double to roughly 135 billion euros in 2026, with 40 to 45 percent revenue growth. Continued war in Ukraine, new naval and ammunition contracts, and national special funds act as ongoing triggers.
Risks
A peace deal in Ukraine or political pressure on budget deficits could slow the spending path, and France for instance still sits near 2.25 percent despite pledges. Valuations of the European leaders are high after the rally and price in a lot of growth, so disappointments are punished sharply. Capacity and supply bottlenecks plus politically driven award decisions remain sources of uncertainty.
Time horizon
Structurally multi-year: commitments run to 2035, with concrete budget increases already in the 2026 to 2029 fiscal plans. Backlogs of four to five years make revenue visible well into the decade.