Vistra Corp.

Valuation Analysis

About the Company

Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure. The company retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across states in the United States and the District of Columbia. It is also involved in electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel procurement, and fuel logistics management activities. In addition, the company engages in decommissioning and reclamation of retired generation facilities, including mines, and battery removal and remediation activities. It serves approximately 5 million customers with a generation c

Vistra Corp. Stock at a Glance

Vistra Corp. (VST) is currently trading at $148.02 with a market capitalization of $49.9B. The trailing P/E ratio stands at 24.75x, with a forward P/E of 13.51x. The 52-week range spans from $132.66 to $219.82; the current price is 32.7% below the yearly high. Year-over-year revenue growth stands at +43.4%. The net profit margin stands at 11.53%.

💰 Dividend

Vistra Corp. pays an annual dividend of $0.92 per share, representing a yield of 0.62%. The payout ratio stands at 15.15%.

📊 Analyst Rating

17 analysts rate Vistra Corp. (VST) on consensus: Strong Buy. The average price target is $225.29, implying +52.21% from the current price. Analyst price targets range from $99.00 to $320.00.

Vistra Corp.: The Investment Case in Detail

Vistra Corp. (VST) operates in the Utilities — specifically Utilities - Independent Power Producers — and is headquartered in United States. Below is a structured read of the investment case built directly from the latest fundamentals, valuation multiples, analyst positioning and smart-money flows. Each section translates raw numbers into the investment logic they imply, so you can decide whether the risk/reward fits your portfolio.

The Bull Case

Top-line momentum is unusually strong with revenue expanding 43.4% year-over-year, a pace that puts the company well above the market average and signals genuine demand traction rather than mere cyclical tailwind. Return on equity of 42.9% places management among the most capital-efficient operators in the public market — every euro of shareholder capital is working hard. Wall Street consensus sits at Strong Buy with an average price target implying roughly 52.21% upside from current levels — analyst sentiment is firmly constructive.

The Bear Case

The debt-to-equity ratio of 355.19% is elevated, meaning the company relies heavily on creditors — refinancing terms will become more important than operational performance in the next economic downturn.

Valuation in Context

With a PEG ratio of 0.44, the price-to-earnings multiple is actually below the company's growth rate — classic value-meets-growth territory that Peter Lynch would have called a 'GARP' opportunity.

What to Watch Next

• The forward P/E of 13.51x is meaningfully below the trailing 24.75x — analysts expect earnings to step up; the next earnings release is the test.
• The price sits in the lower quartile of the 52-week range — value hunters often start scaling in around this zone if fundamentals hold.
• The analyst consensus price target implies 52.21% upside — if the next two quarters confirm the underlying thesis, target hikes typically follow.

Investment Thesis: Strengths & Weaknesses

Technical Snapshot

Price is below both the 50- and 200-day moving averages, with 50d below 200d — a bearish picture (death-cross alignment).

Risk Profile

The data points to market-like volatility, elevated short interest (5.39%), higher leverage relative to equity.

Trading Data

💵 Dividend Info

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