Mosaic Company (The)

Valuation Analysis

About the Company

The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. It operates in three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. The company owns and operates mines and production facilities, which produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients, as well as concentrated phosphate crop nutrients, such as diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate, and MicroEssentials, a value-added ammoniated phosphate product. It also mines, processes, and sells potash to crop nutrient manufacturers, distributors, retailers, and to customers for industrial use; and owns and operates mines, chemical plants, crop nutrient blending and bagging facilities, port terminals and warehouses, which produce an

Mosaic Company (The) Stock at a Glance

Mosaic Company (The) (MOS) is currently trading at $22.69 with a market capitalization of $7.2B. The trailing P/E ratio stands at 162.07x, with a forward P/E of 12.39x. The 52-week range spans from $19.80 to $38.23; the current price is 40.6% below the yearly high. Year-over-year revenue growth stands at +14.4%. The net profit margin stands at 0.36%.

💰 Dividend

Mosaic Company (The) pays an annual dividend of $0.88 per share, representing a yield of 3.88%. The payout ratio stands at 628.57%. The elevated payout ratio reflects a mature dividend policy.

📊 Analyst Rating

19 analysts rate Mosaic Company (The) (MOS) on consensus: Buy. The average price target is $26.82, implying +18.21% from the current price. Analyst price targets range from $19.00 to $35.00.

Mosaic Company (The): The Investment Case in Detail

Mosaic Company (The) (MOS) operates in the Basic Materials — specifically Agricultural Inputs — and is headquartered in United States. Below is a structured read of the investment case built directly from the latest fundamentals, valuation multiples, analyst positioning and smart-money flows. Each section translates raw numbers into the investment logic they imply, so you can decide whether the risk/reward fits your portfolio.

The Bull Case

Revenue is growing at a healthy 14.4% pace year-over-year, suggesting the business model continues to find new customers and pricing power. Wall Street consensus sits at Buy with an average price target implying roughly 18.21% upside from current levels — analyst sentiment is firmly constructive.

The Bear Case

With a net margin of just 0.36%, the business has little room to absorb cost shocks or pricing pressure — a single bad quarter can swing the company to a loss. A trailing P/E above 50 combined with revenue growth below 20% is a dangerous combination — the market is paying a steep growth multiple for what is, by the data, only moderately fast expansion. Our valuation screen flags the stock as overvalued — current multiples imply the business needs to deliver well above its recent trajectory to justify the price.

Valuation in Context

The EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.45x is below the historical equity-market average — strategic acquirers would find the cash-flow profile attractive at this level.

What to Watch Next

• The forward P/E of 12.39x is meaningfully below the trailing 162.07x — analysts expect earnings to step up; the next earnings release is the test.
• The price sits in the lower quartile of the 52-week range — value hunters often start scaling in around this zone if fundamentals hold.

Investment Thesis: Strengths & Weaknesses

Technical Snapshot

Price is below both the 50- and 200-day moving averages, with 50d below 200d — a bearish picture (death-cross alignment).

Risk Profile

The data points to relatively defensive market behavior, elevated short interest (8.71%).

Trading Data

💵 Dividend Info

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